Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

Ristola M. on työryhmien DAD Study Grp ; Royal Free Hosp Clin Cohort ; INSIGHT Study Grp ; SMART Study Grp ; ESPRIT Study Grp jäsen.Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with >= 3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1: 393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score = 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166-3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159-278) and 21 (95% CI 19-23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506-1462), 88 (95% CI 69-121), and 9 (95% CI 8-10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3-12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6-8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. Conclusions Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.Peer reviewe

Non-AIDS defining cancers in the D:A:D Study-time trends and predictors of survival : a cohort study

BACKGROUND:Non-AIDS defining cancers (NADC) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive individuals. Using data from a large international cohort of HIV-positive individuals, we described the incidence of NADC from 2004-2010, and described subsequent mortality and predictors of these.METHODS:Individuals were followed from 1st January 2004/enrolment in study, until the earliest of a new NADC, 1st February 2010, death or six months after the patient's last visit. Incidence rates were estimated for each year of follow-up, overall and stratified by gender, age and mode of HIV acquisition. Cumulative risk of mortality following NADC diagnosis was summarised using Kaplan-Meier methods, with follow-up for these analyses from the date of NADC diagnosis until the patient's death, 1st February 2010 or 6 months after the patient's last visit. Factors associated with mortality following NADC diagnosis were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression.RESULTS:Over 176,775 person-years (PY), 880 (2.1%) patients developed a new NADC (incidence: 4.98/1000PY [95% confidence interval 4.65, 5.31]). Over a third of these patients (327, 37.2%) had died by 1st February 2010. Time trends for lung cancer, anal cancer and Hodgkin's lymphoma were broadly consistent. Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality estimates at 1, 3 and 5 years after NADC diagnosis were 28.2% [95% CI 25.1-31.2], 42.0% [38.2-45.8] and 47.3% [42.4-52.2], respectively. Significant predictors of poorer survival after diagnosis of NADC were lung cancer (compared to other cancer types), male gender, non-white ethnicity, and smoking status. Later year of diagnosis and higher CD4 count at NADC diagnosis were associated with improved survival. The incidence of NADC remained stable over the period 2004-2010 in this large observational cohort.CONCLUSIONS:The prognosis after diagnosis of NADC, in particular lung cancer and disseminated cancer, is poor but has improved somewhat over time. Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking and low CD4 counts, were associated with mortality following a diagnosis of NADC

Cancers or not? Collection and preliminary assessment of non-AIDS-defining malignancies (NADMs) in the D:A:D Study

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Trends in underlying causes of death in people with HIV from 1999 to 2011 (D:A:D): a multicohort collaboration

Background With the advent of effective antiretroviral treatment, the life expectancy for people with HIV is now approaching that seen in the general population. Consequently, the relative importance of other traditionally non-AIDS-related morbidities has increased. We investigated trends over time in all-cause mortality and for specific causes of death in people with HIV from 1999 to 2011. Methods Individuals from the Data collection on Adverse events of anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study were followed up from March, 1999, until death, loss to follow-up, or Feb 1, 2011, whichever occurred first. The D:A:D study is a collaboration of 11 cohort studies following HIV-1-positive individuals receiving care at 212 clinics in Europe, USA, and Australia. All fatal events were centrally validated at the D:A:D coordinating centre using coding causes of death in HIV (CoDe) methodology. We calculated relative rates using Poisson regression. Findings 3909 of the 49 731 D:A:D study participants died during the 308 719 person-years of follow-up (crude incidence mortality rate, 12.7 per 1000 person-years [95% CI 12.3-13.1]). Leading underlying causes were: AIDS-related (1123 [29%] deaths), non-AIDS-defining cancers (590 [15%] deaths), liver disease (515 [13%] deaths), and cardiovascular disease (436 [11%] deaths). Rates of all-cause death per 1000 person-years decreased from 17.5 in 1999-2000 to 9.1 in 2009-11; we saw similar decreases in death rates per 1000 person-years over the same period for AIDS-related deaths (5.9 to 2.0), deaths from liver disease (2.7 to 0.9), and cardiovascular disease deaths (1.8 to 0.9). However, non-AIDS cancers increased slightly from 1.6 per 1000 person-years in 1999-2000 to 2.1 in 2009-11 (p=0.58). After adjustment for factors that changed over time, including CD4 cell count, we detected no decreases in AIDS-related death rates (relative rate for 2009-11 vs 1999-2000: 0.92 [0.70-1.22]). However, all-cause (0.72 [0.61-0.83]), liver disease (0.48 [0.32-0.74]), and cardiovascular disease (0.33 [0.20-0.53) death rates still decreased over time. The percentage of all deaths that were AIDS-related (87/256 [34%] in 1999-2000 and 141/627 [22%] in 2009-11) and liver-related (40/256 [16%] in 1999-2000 and 64/627 [10%] in 2009-11) decreased over time, whereas non-AIDS cancers increased (24/256 [9%] in 1999-2000 to 142/627 [23%] in 2009-11). Interpretation Recent reductions in rates of AIDS-related deaths are linked with continued improvement in CD4 cell count. We hypothesise that the substantially reduced rates of liver disease and cardiovascular disease deaths over time could be explained by improved use of non-HIV-specific preventive interventions. Non-AIDS cancer is now the leading non-AIDS cause and without any evidence of improvement. Funding Oversight Committee for the Evaluation of Metabolic Complications of HAART, with representatives from academia, patient community, US Food and Drug Administration, European Medicines Agency and consortium of AbbVie, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, Merck, Pfizer, F Hoffmann-La Roche, and Janssen Pharmaceuticals.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Non-AIDS defining cancers in the D:A:D Study - time trends and predictors of survival: A cohort study

Background: Non-AIDS defining cancers (NADC) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive individuals. Using data from a large international cohort of HIV-positive individuals, we described the incidence of NADC from 2004-2010, and described subsequent mortality and predictors of these.Methods: Individuals were followed from 1st January 2004/enrolment in study, until the earliest of a new NADC, 1st February 2010, death or six months after the patient's last visit. Incidence rates were estimated for each year of follow-up, overall and stratified by gender, age and mode of HIV acquisition. Cumulative risk of mortality following NADC diagnosis was summarised using Kaplan-Meier methods, with follow-up for these analyses from the date of NADC diagnosis until the patient's death, 1st February 2010 or 6 months after the patient's last visit. Factors associated with mortality following NADC diagnosis were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression.Results: Over 176,775 person-years (PY), 880 (2.1%) patients developed a new NADC (incidence: 4.98/1000PY [95% confidence interval 4.65, 5.31]). Over a third of these patients (327, 37.2%) had died by 1st February 2010. Time trends for lung cancer, anal cancer and Hodgkin's lymphoma were broadly consistent. Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality estimates at 1, 3 and 5 years after NADC diagnosis were 28.2% [95% CI 25.1-31.2], 42.0% [38.2-45.8] and 47.3% [42.4-52.2], respectively. Significant predictors of poorer survival after diagnosis of NADC were lung cancer (compared to other cancer types), male gender, non-white ethnicity, and smoking status. Later year of diagnosis and higher CD4 count at NADC diagnosis were associated with improved survival. The incidence of NADC remained stable over the period 2004-2010 in this large observational cohort.Conclusions: The prognosis after diagnosis of NADC, in particular lung cancer and disseminated cancer, is poor but has improved somewhat over time. Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking and low CD4 counts, were associated with mortality following a diagnosis of NADC. © 2013 Worm et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Non-AIDS defining cancers in the D:A:D Study - time trends and predictors of survival: A cohort study

Background: Non-AIDS defining cancers (NADC) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive individuals. Using data from a large international cohort of HIV-positive individuals, we described the incidence of NADC from 2004-2010, and described subsequent mortality and predictors of these.Methods: Individuals were followed from 1st January 2004/enrolment in study, until the earliest of a new NADC, 1st February 2010, death or six months after the patient's last visit. Incidence rates were estimated for each year of follow-up, overall and stratified by gender, age and mode of HIV acquisition. Cumulative risk of mortality following NADC diagnosis was summarised using Kaplan-Meier methods, with follow-up for these analyses from the date of NADC diagnosis until the patient's death, 1st February 2010 or 6 months after the patient's last visit. Factors associated with mortality following NADC diagnosis were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression.Results: Over 176,775 person-years (PY), 880 (2.1%) patients developed a new NADC (incidence: 4.98/1000PY [95% confidence interval 4.65, 5.31]). Over a third of these patients (327, 37.2%) had died by 1st February 2010. Time trends for lung cancer, anal cancer and Hodgkin's lymphoma were broadly consistent. Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality estimates at 1, 3 and 5 years after NADC diagnosis were 28.2% [95% CI 25.1-31.2], 42.0% [38.2-45.8] and 47.3% [42.4-52.2], respectively. Significant predictors of poorer survival after diagnosis of NADC were lung cancer (compared to other cancer types), male gender, non-white ethnicity, and smoking status. Later year of diagnosis and higher CD4 count at NADC diagnosis were associated with improved survival. The incidence of NADC remained stable over the period 2004-2010 in this large observational cohort.Conclusions: The prognosis after diagnosis of NADC, in particular lung cancer and disseminated cancer, is poor but has improved somewhat over time. Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking and low CD4 counts, were associated with mortality following a diagnosis of NADC. © 2013 Worm et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Associations between immune depression and cardiovascular events in HIV infection

OBJECTIVE:: To consider associations between the latest/nadir CD4 cell count, and time spent with CD4 cell count less than 200 cells/μl (duration of immune depression), and myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, or cardiovascular disease (CVD) (CHD or stroke) in 33 301 HIV-positive individuals. DESIGN:: Longitudinal cohort study. METHODS:: Analyses were undertaken using Poisson regression. To investigate whether analyses of stroke were robust to the type of endpoint, we additionally included stroke-like events and rejected strokes into the stroke endpoint. RESULTS:: Participants experienced 716 MI, 1056 CHD, 303 stroke, and 1284 CVD events. Whereas there was no evidence of a higher MI/CHD risk in those with lower latest/nadir CD4 cell counts after adjustment [current CD4 <100 cells/μl: relative rate (95% confidence interval) 0.96 (0.62-1.50) for MI, 0.89 (0.30-2.36) for CHD; nadir CD4 <100 cells/μl: 1.36 (0.57-3.23) for MI, 0.98 (0.45-2.16) for CHD], stroke and CVD rates were higher in those with a latest CD4 cell count less than 100 cells/μl [2.26 (1.29-3.94) and 1.14 (0.84-1.56), respectively]. All events occurred less frequently in those who had not experienced immune depression, although evidence for a linear association with duration of immune depression was weak. The association between stroke risk and the latest CD4 cell count strengthened as stroke-like and rejected strokes were included; conversely, associations with established stroke risk factors weakened. CONCLUSION:: We do not find strong evidence that HIV-positive individuals with a low CD4 cell count are more likely to experience MI/CHD. Although strokes appear to occur more commonly at low CD4 cell counts, this may be partly explained by misclassification or other biases

Association between antiretroviral exposure and renal impairment among HIV-positive persons with normal baseline renal function: the D:A:D study

BACKGROUND Several antiretroviral agents (ARVs) are associated with chronic renal impairment, but the extent of such adverse events among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons with initially normal renal function is unknown. METHODS D:A:D study participants with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of ≥ 90 mL/min after 1 January 2004 were followed until they had a confirmed eGFR of ≤ 70 mL/min (the threshold below which we hypothesized that renal interventions may begin to occur) or ≤ 60 mL/min (a value indicative of moderately severe chronic kidney disease [CKD]) or until the last eGFR measurement during follow-up. An eGFR was considered confirmed if it was detected at 2 consecutive measurements ≥ 3 months apart. Predictors and eGFR-related ARV discontinuations were identified using Poisson regression. RESULTS Of 22 603 persons, 468 (2.1%) experienced a confirmed eGFR of ≤ 70 mL/min (incidence rate, 4.78 cases/1000 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval {CI}, 4.35-5.22]) and 131 (0.6%) experienced CKD (incidence rate, 1.33 cases/1000 person-years of follow-up [95% CI, 1.10-1.56]) during a median follow-up duration of 4.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 2.7-6.1 years). A current eGFR of 60-70 mL/min caused significantly higher rates of discontinuation of tenofovir (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 1.72 [95% CI, 1.38-2.14]) but not other ARVs compared with a current eGFR of ≥ 90 mL/min. Cumulative tenofovir use (aIRR, 1.18/year [95% CI, 1.12-1.25]) and ritonavir-boosted atazanavir use (aIRR, 1.19/year [95% CI, 1.09-1.32]) were independent predictors of a confirmed eGFR of ≤ 70 but were not significant predictors of CKD whereas ritonavir-boosted lopinavir use was a significant predictor for both end points (aIRR, 1.11/year [95% CI, 1.05-1.17] and 1.22/year [95% CI, 1.16-1.28], respectively). Associations were unaffected by censoring for concomitant ARV use but diminished after discontinuation of these ARVs. CONCLUSIONS Tenofovir, ritonavir-boosted atazanavir, and ritonavir-boosted lopinavir use were independent predictors of chronic renal impairment in HIV-positive persons without preexisting renal impairment. Increased tenofovir discontinuation rates with decreasing eGFR may have prevented further deteriorations. After discontinuation, the ARV-associated incidence rates decreased

Risk for opportunistic disease and death after reinitiating continuous antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV previously receiving episodic therapy: a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Episodic use of antiretroviral therapy guided by CD4+ cell counts is inferior to continuous antiretroviral therapy. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether reinitiating continuous antiretroviral therapy in patients who received episodic treatment reduces excess risk for opportunistic disease or death. DESIGN: Randomized, controlled trial. SETTING: Sites in 33 countries. PATIENTS: 5472 HIV-infected individuals with CD4(+) cell counts greater than 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L enrolled from January 2002 to January 2006. INTERVENTION: Episodic or continuous antiretroviral therapy initially, followed by continuous therapy in participants previously assigned to episodic treatment. MEASUREMENTS: Opportunistic disease or death was the primary outcome. RESULTS: Eighteen months after the recommendation to reinitiate continuous therapy, mean CD4+ cell counts were 0.152 x 10(9) cells/L (95% CI, 0.136 to 0.167 x 10(9) cells/L) less in participants previously assigned to episodic treatment (P < 0.001). The proportion of follow-up time spent with CD4+ cell counts of 0.500 x 10(9) cells/L or more and HIV RNA levels of 400 copies/mL or less was 29% for participants initially assigned to episodic therapy and 66% for those assigned to continuous therapy. Participants who reinitiated continuous therapy experienced rapid suppression of HIV RNA levels (89.7% with HIV RNA levels < or =400 copies/mL after 6 months), but CD4+ cell counts after 6 months remained 0.140 x 10(9) cells/L below baseline. The hazard ratio (episodic versus continuous treatment) for opportunistic disease or death decreased after the recommendation to reinitiate continuous therapy (from 2.5 [CI, 1.8 to 3.5] to 1.4 [CI, 1.0 to 2.0]; P = 0.033 for difference). The residual excess risk was attributable to failure to reinitiate therapy by some participants and slow recovery of CD4+ cell counts for those who reinitiated therapy. LIMITATION: Follow-up was too short to assess the full effect of switching from episodic to continuous antiretroviral therapy. CONCLUSION: Reinitiating continuous antiretroviral therapy in patients previously assigned to episodic treatment reduced excess risk for opportunistic disease or death, but excess risk remained. Episodic antiretroviral therapy, as used in the SMART study, should be avoided