Evaluating probability forecasts

Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOS902 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The interplay of intrinsic and extrinsic bounded noises in genetic networks

After being considered as a nuisance to be filtered out, it became recently clear that biochemical noise plays a complex role, often fully functional, for a genetic network. The influence of intrinsic and extrinsic noises on genetic networks has intensively been investigated in last ten years, though contributions on the co-presence of both are sparse. Extrinsic noise is usually modeled as an unbounded white or colored gaussian stochastic process, even though realistic stochastic perturbations are clearly bounded. In this paper we consider Gillespie-like stochastic models of nonlinear networks, i.e. the intrinsic noise, where the model jump rates are affected by colored bounded extrinsic noises synthesized by a suitable biochemical state-dependent Langevin system. These systems are described by a master equation, and a simulation algorithm to analyze them is derived. This new modeling paradigm should enlarge the class of systems amenable at modeling. We investigated the influence of both amplitude and autocorrelation time of a extrinsic Sine-Wiener noise on: $(i)$ the Michaelis-Menten approximation of noisy enzymatic reactions, which we show to be applicable also in co-presence of both intrinsic and extrinsic noise, $(ii)$ a model of enzymatic futile cycle and $(iii)$ a genetic toggle switch. In $(ii)$ and $(iii)$ we show that the presence of a bounded extrinsic noise induces qualitative modifications in the probability densities of the involved chemicals, where new modes emerge, thus suggesting the possibile functional role of bounded noises

Non-invasive prenatal assessment of trisomy 21 by multiplexed maternal plasma DNA sequencing: large scale validity study

Objectives To validate the clinical efficacy and practical feasibility of massively parallel maternal plasma DNA sequencing to screen for fetal trisomy 21 among high risk pregnancies clinically indicated for amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling

Noninvasive Prenatal Diagnosis of Fetal Trisomy 18 and Trisomy 13 by Maternal Plasma DNA Sequencing

Massively parallel sequencing of DNA molecules in the plasma of pregnant women has been shown to allow accurate and noninvasive prenatal detection of fetal trisomy 21. However, whether the sequencing approach is as accurate for the noninvasive prenatal diagnosis of trisomy 13 and 18 is unclear due to the lack of data from a large sample set. We studied 392 pregnancies, among which 25 involved a trisomy 13 fetus and 37 involved a trisomy 18 fetus, by massively parallel sequencing. By using our previously reported standard z-score approach, we demonstrated that this approach could identify 36.0% and 73.0% of trisomy 13 and 18 at specificities of 92.4% and 97.2%, respectively. We aimed to improve the detection of trisomy 13 and 18 by using a non-repeat-masked reference human genome instead of a repeat-masked one to increase the number of aligned sequence reads for each sample. We then applied a bioinformatics approach to correct GC content bias in the sequencing data. With these measures, we detected all (25 out of 25) trisomy 13 fetuses at a specificity of 98.9% (261 out of 264 non-trisomy 13 cases), and 91.9% (34 out of 37) of the trisomy 18 fetuses at 98.0% specificity (247 out of 252 non-trisomy 18 cases). These data indicate that with appropriate bioinformatics analysis, noninvasive prenatal diagnosis of trisomy 13 and trisomy 18 by maternal plasma DNA sequencing is achievable

Systematic Identification of Placental Epigenetic Signatures for the Noninvasive Prenatal Detection of Edwards Syndrome

Background: Noninvasive prenatal diagnosis of fetal aneuploidy by maternal plasma analysis is challenging owing to the low fractional and absolute concentrations of fetal DNA in maternal plasma. Previously, we demonstrated for the first time that fetal DNA in maternal plasma could be specifically targeted by epigenetic (DNA methylation) signatures in the placenta. By comparing one such methylated fetal epigenetic marker located on chromosome 21 with another fetal genetic marker located on a reference chromosome in maternal plasma, we could infer the relative dosage of fetal chromosome 21 and noninvasively detect fetal trisomy 21. Here we apply this epigenetic-genetic (EGG) chromosome dosage approach to detect Edwards syndrome (trisomy 18) in the fetus noninvasively. Principal Findings: We have systematically identified methylated fetal epigenetic markers on chromosome 18 by methylated DNA immunoprecipitation (MeDIP) and tiling array analysis with confirmation using quantitative DNA methylation assays. Methylated DNA sequences from an intergenic region between the VAPA and APCDD1 genes (the VAPAAPCDD1 DNA) were detected in pre-delivery, but not post-delivery, maternal plasma samples. The concentrations correlated positively with those of an established fetal genetic marker, ZFY, in pre-delivery maternal plasma. The ratios of methylated VAPA-APCDD1(chr18) to ZFY(chrY) were higher in maternal plasma samples of 9 male trisomy 18 fetuses than those of 27 male euploid fetuses (Mann-Whitney test, P = 0.029). We defined the cutoff value for detecting trisomy 18 fetuses as mean+1.96 SD of the EGG ratios of the euploid cases. Eight of 9 trisomy 18 and 1 of 27 euploid cases showed EGG ratios higher than the cutoff value, giving a sensitivity of 88.9% and a specificity of 96.3%. Conclusions: Our data have shown that the methylated VAPA-APCDD1 DNA in maternal plasma is redominantly derived from the fetus. We have demonstrated that this novel fetal epigenetic marker in maternal plasma is useful for the noninvasive detection of fetal trisomy 18. © Tsui et al.published_or_final_versio

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Evolutionary and Transmission Dynamics of Reassortant H5N1 Influenza Virus in Indonesia

H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have seriously affected the Asian poultry industry since their recurrence in 2003. The viruses pose a threat of emergence of a global pandemic influenza through point mutation or reassortment leading to a strain that can effectively transmit among humans. In this study, we present phylogenetic evidences for the interlineage reassortment among H5N1 HPAI viruses isolated from humans, cats, and birds in Indonesia, and identify the potential genetic parents of the reassorted genome segments. Parsimony analyses of viral phylogeography suggest that the reassortant viruses may have originated from greater Jakarta and surroundings, and subsequently spread to other regions in the West Java province. In addition, Bayesian methods were used to elucidate the genetic diversity dynamics of the reassortant strain and one of its genetic parents, which revealed a more rapid initial growth of genetic diversity in the reassortant viruses relative to their genetic parent. These results demonstrate that interlineage exchange of genetic information may play a pivotal role in determining viral genetic diversity in a focal population. Moreover, our study also revealed significantly stronger diversifying selection on the M1 and PB2 genes in the lineages preceding and subsequent to the emergence of the reassortant viruses, respectively. We discuss how the corresponding mutations might drive the adaptation and onward transmission of the newly formed reassortant viruses

Novel Echocardiographic Biomarkers in the Management of Atrial Fibrillation

Purpose of Review: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia in adults. The number of patients with AF is anticipated to increase annually, mainly due to the aging population alongside improved arrhythmia detection. AF is associated with a significantly elevated risk of hospitalization, stroke, thromboembolism, heart failure, and all-cause mortality. Echocardiography is one of the key components of routine assessment and management of AF. Therefore, the aim of this review is to briefly summarize current knowledge on “novel” echocardiographic parameters that may be of value in the management of AF patients. Recent Findings: Novel echocardiographic biomarkers and their clinical application related to the management of AF have been taken into consideration. Both standard parameters such as atrial size and volume but also novels like atrial strain and tissue Doppler techniques have been analyzed. Summary: A number of novel echocardiographic parameters have been proven to enable early detection of left atrial dysfunction along with increased diagnosis accuracy. This concerns particularly experienced echocardiographers. Hence, these techniques might improve the prediction of stroke and thromboembolic events among AF patients and need to be further developed and disseminated. Nonetheless, even the standard imaging parameters could be of significant value and should not be discontinued in everyday clinical practice. © 2019, The Author(s)

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background: There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low-and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods: Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results: Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion: For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Laparoscopy in management of appendicitis in high-, middle-, and low-income countries: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. RESULTS: 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but infrequent in low-HDI (41/507, 8.1%) and middle-HDI (132/1540, 8.6%) groups. After accounting for case-mix, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71, p < 0.001) and SSIs (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.14-0.33, p < 0.001). In propensity-score matched groups within low-/middle-HDI countries, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.23 95% CI 0.11-0.44) and SSI (OR 0.21 95% CI 0.09-0.45). CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach is associated with better outcomes and availability appears to differ by country HDI. Despite the profound clinical, operational, and financial barriers to its widespread introduction, laparoscopy could significantly improve outcomes for patients in low-resource environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02179112