Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Treatment of Early Rheumatoid Arthritis in a Multinational Inception Cohort of Latin American Patients the GLADAR Experience

Background: Treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has evolved dramatically in the last decade. However, little is known about the way rheumatologists in Latin America treat their patients in clinical practice, outside the scope of clinical trials.Objective: the objective of this study was to describe treatment patterns at disease onset in early RA with data from a large, multicenter, multinational inception cohort of Latin American patients.Methods: Consecutive patients with early RA (<1 year of disease duration as diagnosed by a rheumatologist) from 46 centers in 14 Latin American countries were enrolled in the study. Clinical data, laboratory assessments, and a detailed registry on type of prescriptions were collected at baseline and at 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months of follow-up. Hands and feet x-rays were obtained at baseline and at 12 and 24 months. All data were captured in Arthros 6.1 database. Continuous variables were expressed as means and SDs, and categorical variables were expressed as percentages and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Only therapeutic data at baseline are presented, corresponding to the period between disease onset and second visit (3 months).Results: A total of 1093 patients were included. Eighty-five percent were female, and 76% had a positive rheumatoid factor. Mean age at diagnosis was 46.5 (SD, 14.2) years, and mean disease duration at the first visit was 5.8 (SD, 3.8) months. Between baseline and second visit (3 months), 75% of patients (95% CI, 72%-78%) received disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs. Methotrexate (MTX) alone or in combination was the most frequently used (60.5%), followed by antimalarials (chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, 32.1%), sulfasalazine (7.1%), and leflunomide (LEF, 4%). in 474 patients (43%), initiation of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs was within the first month after the first visit. in addition, 290 patients (26%; 95% CI, 23%-29%) received combination therapy as initial treatment. the most frequently used combinations were MTX + chloroquine (45%), MTX + hydroxychloroquine (25%), and MTX + sulfasalazine (16%). Eleven patients (1%; 95% CI, 0.5%-1.8%) received biologics. Sixty-four percent (95% CI, 60%-66%) received corticosteroids. of those, 80% (95% CI, 77%-84%) received 10 mg of oral prednisone or less.Conclusions: in this cohort of Latin American patients with early RA, most patients received MTX very early in their disease course. Combination therapy was used approximately in 1 of every 4 patients as initial therapy. Biologics were rarely used at this early stage, and low-dose prednisone was commonly used.Abbott LaboratoriesAbbottHosp Italiano Buenos Aires, Serv Clin Med, Secc Reumatol, Buenos Aires, DF, ArgentinaFdn Dr Pedro M Catoggio Progreso Reumatol, Buenos Aires, DF, ArgentinaHosp Gen Dr Miguel Silva, Unidad Invest Dr Mario Alvizouri Munoz, Morelia, Michoacan, MexicoHosp Prov Rosario, Serv Reumatol, Rosario, Santa Fe, ArgentinaUniv Nacl Rosario, RA-2000 Rosario, ArgentinaHosp Privado, Ctr Med Cordoba, Dept Reumatol, Cordoba, ArgentinaHosp San Martin La Plata, Dept Reumatol, La Plata, Buenos Aires, ArgentinaUniv Fed Minas Gerais, Hosp Clin, Dept Aparelho Locomotor, Serv Reumatol, Belo Horizonte, MG, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo UNIFESP, Dept Med Interna, Serv Reumatol, São Paulo, BrazilPontificia Univ Catolica Rio Grande do Sul, Dept Reumatol, Porto Alegre, RS, BrazilUniv Fed Parana, Hosp Clin, Dept Clin Med, Disciplina Reumatol, BR-80060000 Curitiba, Parana, BrazilHosp Geral Goiania Dr Alberto Rassi, Secao Reumatol, Goiania, Go, BrazilPontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Fac Med, Dept Clin Immunol & Rheumatol, Santiago, ChileHosp Clin San Borja Arriaran, Dept Reumatol & Inmunol, Santiago, ChileClin Univ Bolivariana, Corp Invest Biol, Dept Inmunol Clin & Reumatol, Medellin, Antioquia, ColombiaHosp Mil, Dept Reumatol & Inmunol, Bogota, ColombiaHosp Especialidades Ctr Med La Raza, Ctr Med Nacl Siglo 21, Dept Reumatol, Mexico City, DF, MexicoUniv Autonoma Nuevo Leon, Hosp Univ Dr Jose Eleuterio Gonzalez, Dept Med Interna, Serv Reumatol, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, MexicoHosp Gen Occidente Secretaria Salud, Dept Inmunol & Reumatol, Zapopan, Jalisco, MexicoHosp Presidente Estrella Urena, Clin Corominas, Clin Union Med, Dept Reumatol, Santiago, Dominican RepHosp Univ Caracas, Minist Salud, Ctr Nacl Enfermedades Reumat, Serv Reumatol, Caracas, VenezuelaUniversidade Federal de São Paulo UNIFESP, Dept Med Interna, Serv Reumatol, São Paulo, BrazilWeb of Scienc

Changing rate of serious infections in biologic-exposed rheumatoid arthritis patients : data from South American registries BIOBADABRASIL and BIOBADASAR

Most reports on serious infections (SI) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients treated with biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) are from the USA and Western Europe. Data from other regions are largely missing. We report data from South American countries with different backgrounds and health-care systems but similar registries. We merged 2010-2016 data from two registries, BIOBADABRASIL (Brazil) and BIOBADASAR (Argentina), which share the same protocol, online platform and data monitoring process. Patients with active RA were included when they began the first bDMARD or a conventional synthetic DMARD (csDMARD, control group). The SI incidence rate (IR) per 1000 patient/years and adjusted IR ratio (aIRR) were estimated for bDMARDs and csDMARDs. Data were analysed for 3717 RA patients with an exposure of 13,380 patient/years. The 2591 patients treated with bDMARDs (64% tumour necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors (TNFi)) had a follow-up of 9300years, and the 1126 treated with csDMARDs had an exposure of 4081 patient/years. The SI IR was 30.54 (CI 27.18-34.30) for all bDMARDs and 5.15 (CI 3.36-7.89) for csDMARDs. The aIRR between the two groups was 2.03 ([1.05, 3.9] p=0.034) for the first 6months of treatment but subsequently increased to 8.26 ([4.32, 15.76] p<0.001). The SI IR for bDMARDs decreased over time in both registries, dropping from 36.59 (28.41-47.12) in 2012 to 7.27 (4.79-11.05) in 2016. While SI remains a major concern in South American patients with RA treated with bDMARDs, a favourable trend toward a reduction was observed in the last years3882129213