Relación de causalidad entre el crecimiento económico y deterioro medio ambiental: Caso G-8

This article is an inductive argumentation and an empirical-analytical paradigm that evaluates the actual relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and the Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in country groups of the G8 considered as developed in a period of time from 1960 to 2011. It was developed an Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root (ADF), a Granger Causality Test and a Johansen Cointegration test. The results evidence the non-stationary of constrains in both countries. It was obtained a VAR model with two variables with a number of lags of four - VAR2 (4) to which were tested for causality by demonstrating a unidirectionality of GDP per capita to CO2. Keywords: economic growth, economic development, income distribution, environmental economics. References [1]G. Brundtland, «Our Common Future,» de Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development , 1987. [2]R. Bermejo, Del desarrollo sostenible según Brundtland a la sostenibilidad como biomimesis, Bilbao: Hegoa, 2014. [3]R. B. and. P. C. Fander Falconí, «Flacso,» 16 03 2016. [Online]. Available: https://www.flacsoandes.edu.ec/agora/62767-la-discutible-curva-de-kuznets. [Last access: 15 01 2021]. [4]E. Urteaga, «Las teorías económicas del desarrollo sostenible,» Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 32, nº 89, pp. 113-162, 2009. [5]V. K. Smith, Scarcity and Growth Reconsidered, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1979. [6]J. y. A. Medina, «Ingreso y desigualdad: la Hipótesis de Kuznets en el caso boliviano,» Espacios, vol. 38, nº31, p. 23, 2017. [7]M. Ahluwalia, «Inequality, poverty and development, » Journal of Development Economics, nº 3, pp. 307-342, 1976. [8]A. and R. D. Alesina, «Distributive politics and economic growth,» Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 109, nº 2, pp. 465-490, 1994. [9]R. Barro, «Inequality and growth in a panel of countries, » Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 5, nº 1, pp. 5-32, 2000. [10]M. A. Galindo, «Distribución de la renta y crecimiento económico,» de Anuario jurídico y económico escurialense, 2002, pp. 473-502. [11]A. Álvarez, «Distribución de la renta y crecimiento económico, Información Comercial Española, ICE,» Revista de economía, nº 835, pp. 95-100, 2007. [12]J. C. Núñez, «Crecimiento económico y distribución del ingreso: una perspectiva del Paraguay,» Población y Desarrollo, nº 43, pp. 54-61, 2016. [13]S. Kuznets, «Economic Growth and Income Inequality, » American Economic Review, nº 45, pp. 1-28, 1955. [14]J. A. and. C. J. Araujo, «Relación entre la desigualdad de la renta y el crecimiento económico en Brasil: 1995-2012.,» Problemas del desarrollo, vol. 46, nº 180, pp.129-150, 2015. [15]F. V. A. and P. C. Correa, «La Curva Medioambiental de Kuznets: Evidencia Empírica para Colombia Grupo de Economía Ambiental (GEA),» Semestre Económico, vol. 8, nº 15, pp. 13-30, 2005. [16]W. Malenbaum, World Demand for Raw Materials in 1985 and 2000, McGraw-Hill: New York, 1978. [17]W. Beckerman, «Economists, scientists, and environmental catastrophe,» Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 24, nº 3, 1972. [18]G. y. K. A. Grossman, «Economic Growth and the Environment,» The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 110, nº 2, pp. 353-377, 1995. [19]N. Stokey, «Are there Limits to Growth?,» International Economic Review, vol. 39, nº 1, 1998. [20]W. and. C. W. Jaeger, «A Theoretical Basis for the Environmental Inverted-U Curve and Implications for International Trade,» de Discussant: Clive Chapple, New York, 1998. [21]T. B. K. B. R. and. G. K. Cavlovic, «A Mets-Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve Studies,» Agricultural and Resource Economics, nº 29, pp. 32-42, 2000. [22]M. and. S. T. Heil, «Carbon emissions and economic development: future trajectories based on historical experience, » Environment and Development Economics, vol. 6, nº 1, pp. 63-83, 2001. [23]U. S. R. and E. B. Soytas, «Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States,» Ecological Economics, vol. 62, nº 3, pp. 482-489, 2007.[24]C. W. J. Granger, «Investigating causal relations by econometrics models and cross spectral methods,» Econometrica, nº 37, pp. 424-438, 1969. [25]M. and U. R. Nasir, «Environmental Kuznets Curve for carbon emissions in Pakistan: An empirical investigation,» Energy Policy, vol. 39, nº 3, pp. 1857-1864,2011. [26]S. Johansen, «Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,» Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 12, nº 2, pp. 231-254, 1988. [27]B. Goldman, «Meta-Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve Studies: Determining the Cause of the Curve’s Presence,» de Honors Projects, 2012. [28] M. B.  and T. T. Fosten, «Dynamic misspecification in the environmental Kuznets curve: Evidence from CO2 and SO2 emissions in the United Kingdom,» Ecological Economics, vol. 76, pp. 25-33, 2012.  El presente artículo es de carácter investigativo con razonamiento inductivo y paradigma empírico-analítico, evalúa la relación existente entre el Producto Interno Bruto Per Cápita– PIB per cápita y el dióxido de carbono – CO2 en los grupos de países del G-8 considerados como desarrollados con un periodo de análisis de 1960 a 2011, se utilizó la prueba de raíz unitaria Dickey-Fuller Aumentada – DFA, se generó un modelo de vectores autorregresivos – VAR, se realizóla prueba de causalidad de Granger y se desarrolló la prueba de cointegración de Johansen. Los resultados demuestran la no estacionariedad de las variables en estudio, se obtuvo un modelo VAR de dos variables con un número de rezagos óptimo de cuatro – VAR2 (4) a lo cual se le realizó la prueba de causalidad demostrando una unidireccionalidad por parte del PIB per cápita al CO2. Palabras clave: crecimiento económico, desarrollo económico, distribución de la renta, economía del medio ambiente. Referencias [1]G. Brundtland, «Our Common Future,» de Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development , 1987. [2]R. Bermejo, Del desarrollo sostenible según Brundtland a la sostenibilidad como biomimesis, Bilbao: Hegoa, 2014. [3]R. B. y. P. C. Fander Falconí, «Flacso,» 16 03 2016. [En línea]. Available: https://www.flacsoandes.edu.ec/agora/62767-la-discutible-curva-de-kuznets. [Últimoacceso: 15 01 2021]. [4]E. Urteaga, «Las teorías económicas del desarrollo sostenible,» Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 32, nº 89, pp. 113-162, 2009. [5]V. K. Smith, Scarcity and Growth Reconsidered, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1979. [6]J. y. A. Medina, «Ingreso y desigualdad: la Hipótesis de Kuznets en el caso boliviano,» Espacios, vol. 38, nº31, p. 23, 2017. [7]M. Ahluwalia, «Inequality, poverty and development, » Journal of Development Economics, nº 3, pp. 307-342, 1976. [8]A. y. R. D. Alesina, «Distributive politics and economic growth,» Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 109, nº 2, pp. 465-490, 1994. [9]R. Barro, «Inequality and growth in a panel of countries, » Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 5, nº 1, pp. 5-32, 2000. [10]M. A. Galindo, «Distribución de la renta y crecimiento económico,» de Anuario jurídico y económico escurialense, 2002, pp. 473-502. [11]A. Álvarez, «Distribución de la renta y crecimiento económico, Información Comercial Española, ICE,» Revista de economía, nº 835, pp. 95-100, 2007. [12]J. C. Núñez, «Crecimiento económico y distribución del ingreso: una perspectiva del Paraguay,» Población y Desarrollo, nº 43, pp. 54-61, 2016. [13]S. Kuznets, «Economic Growth and Income Inequality, » American Economic Review, nº 45, pp. 1-28, 1955. [14]J. A. y. C. J. Araujo, «Relación entre la desigualdad de la renta y el crecimiento económico en Brasil: 1995-2012.,» Problemas del desarrollo, vol. 46, nº 180, pp.129-150, 2015. [15]C. Correa, F. Vasco y C. Perez «La Curva Medioambiental de Kuznets: Evidencia Empírica para Colombia Grupo de Economía Ambiental (GEA),» Semestre Económico, vol. 8, nº 15, pp. 13-30, 2005. [16]W. Malenbaum, World Demand for Raw Materials in 1985 and 2000, McGraw-Hill: New York, 1978. [17]W. Beckerman, «Economists, scientists, and environmental catastrophe,» Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 24, nº 3, 1972. [18]G. y. K. A. Grossman, «Economic Growth and the Environment,» The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 110, nº 2, pp. 353-377, 1995. [19]N. Stokey, «Are there Limits to Growth?,» International Economic Review, vol. 39, nº 1, 1998. [20]W. y. C. W. Jaeger, «A Theoretical Basis for the Environmental Inverted-U Curve and Implications for International Trade,» de Discussant: Clive Chapple, New York, 1998. [21]T. B. K. B. R. y. G. K. Cavlovic, «A Mets-Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve Studies,» Agricultural and Resource Economics, nº 29, pp. 32-42, 2000. [22]M. y. S. T. Heil, «Carbon emissions and economic development: future trajectories based on historical experience, » Environment and Development Economics, vol. 6, nº 1, pp. 63-83, 2001. [23]U. S. R. y. E. B. Soytas, «Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States,» Ecological Economics, vol. 62, nº 3, pp. 482-489, 2007.[24]C. W. J. Granger, «Investigating causal relations by econometrics models and cross spectral methods,» Econometrica, nº 37, pp. 424-438, 1969. [25]M. y. U. R. Nasir, «Environmental Kuznets Curve for carbon emissions in Pakistan: An empirical investigation,» Energy Policy, vol. 39, nº 3, pp. 1857-1864,2011. [26]S. Johansen, «Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,» Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 12, nº 2, pp. 231-254, 1988. [27]B. Goldman, «Meta-Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve Studies: Determining the Cause of the Curve’s Presence,» de Honors Projects, 2012. [28] M. B. y. T. T. Fosten, «Dynamic misspecification in the environmental Kuznets curve: Evidence from CO2 and SO2 emissions in the United Kingdom,» Ecological Economics, vol. 76, pp. 25-33, 2012

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Albiglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (Harmony Outcomes): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial

Background: Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists differ in chemical structure, duration of action, and in their effects on clinical outcomes. The cardiovascular effects of once-weekly albiglutide in type 2 diabetes are unknown. We aimed to determine the safety and efficacy of albiglutide in preventing cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Methods: We did a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 610 sites across 28 countries. We randomly assigned patients aged 40 years and older with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (at a 1:1 ratio) to groups that either received a subcutaneous injection of albiglutide (30–50 mg, based on glycaemic response and tolerability) or of a matched volume of placebo once a week, in addition to their standard care. Investigators used an interactive voice or web response system to obtain treatment assignment, and patients and all study investigators were masked to their treatment allocation. We hypothesised that albiglutide would be non-inferior to placebo for the primary outcome of the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, which was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. If non-inferiority was confirmed by an upper limit of the 95% CI for a hazard ratio of less than 1·30, closed testing for superiority was prespecified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02465515. Findings: Patients were screened between July 1, 2015, and Nov 24, 2016. 10 793 patients were screened and 9463 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to groups: 4731 patients were assigned to receive albiglutide and 4732 patients to receive placebo. On Nov 8, 2017, it was determined that 611 primary endpoints and a median follow-up of at least 1·5 years had accrued, and participants returned for a final visit and discontinuation from study treatment; the last patient visit was on March 12, 2018. These 9463 patients, the intention-to-treat population, were evaluated for a median duration of 1·6 years and were assessed for the primary outcome. The primary composite outcome occurred in 338 (7%) of 4731 patients at an incidence rate of 4·6 events per 100 person-years in the albiglutide group and in 428 (9%) of 4732 patients at an incidence rate of 5·9 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·78, 95% CI 0·68–0·90), which indicated that albiglutide was superior to placebo (p<0·0001 for non-inferiority; p=0·0006 for superiority). The incidence of acute pancreatitis (ten patients in the albiglutide group and seven patients in the placebo group), pancreatic cancer (six patients in the albiglutide group and five patients in the placebo group), medullary thyroid carcinoma (zero patients in both groups), and other serious adverse events did not differ between the two groups. There were three (<1%) deaths in the placebo group that were assessed by investigators, who were masked to study drug assignment, to be treatment-related and two (<1%) deaths in the albiglutide group. Interpretation: In patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, albiglutide was superior to placebo with respect to major adverse cardiovascular events. Evidence-based glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists should therefore be considered as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. Funding: GlaxoSmithKline

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

The complete mitogenome of the invasive Japanese mud snail Batillaria attramentaria (Gastropoda: Batillariidae) from Elkhorn Slough, California, USA

Genomic analysis of the invasive marine snail Batillaria attramentaria from Elkhorn Slough, Moss Landing, California, USA using 150 bp paired-end Illumina sequences resulted in the assembly of its complete mitogenome. The mitogenome is 16,095 bp in length and contains 2 rRNA, 13 protein-coding, and 22 tRNA genes (GenBank Accession MN557850). Gene content and organization of B. attramentaria are identical to the Turritellidae and Pachychilidae. The phylogenetic analysis of B. attramentaria resolves it in a fully supported clade with these same two families in the superfamily Cerithioidea. Nucleotide BLAST searches of the Elkhorn Slough cox1 gene of B. attramentaria yielded identical sequences from invasive populations from California and British Columbia, and native populations from northeastern and central Japan. These data show that mitogenome sequencing is a useful tool for studying the classification and phylogenetic history Cerithioidea