Early prediction of median survival among a large AIDS surveillance cohort

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>For individuals with AIDS, data exist relatively soon after diagnosis to allow estimation of "early" survival quantiles (<it>e.g.</it>, the 0.10, 0.15, 0.20 and 0.30 quantiles, etc.). Many years of additional observation must elapse before median survival, a summary measure of survival, can be estimated accurately. In this study, a new approach to predict AIDS median survival is presented and its accuracy tested using AIDS surveillance data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data consisted of 96,373 individuals who were reported to the HIV/AIDS Reporting System of the California Department of Health Services Office of AIDS as of December 31, 1996. We defined cohorts based on quarter year of diagnosis (<it>e.g.</it>, the "931" cohort consists of individuals diagnosed with AIDS in the first quarter of 1993). We used early quantiles (estimated using the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighted estimator) of the survival distribution to estimate median survival by assuming a linear relationship between the earlier quantiles and median survival. From this model, median survival was predicted for cohorts for which a median could not be estimated empirically from the available data. This prediction was compared with the actual medians observed when using updated survival data reported at least five years later.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using the 0.15 quantile as the predictor and the data available as of December 31, 1996, we were able to predict the median survival of four cohorts (933, 934, 941, and 942) to be 34, 34, 31, and 29 months. Without this approach, there were insufficient data with which to make any estimate of median survival. The actual median survival of these four cohorts (using data as of December 31, 2001) was found to be 32, 40, 46, and 80 months, suggesting that the accuracy for this approach requires a minimum of three years to elapse from diagnosis to the time an accurate prediction can be made.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this study suggest that early and accurate prediction of median survival time after AIDS diagnosis may be possible using early quantiles of the survival distribution. The methodology did not seem to work well during a period of significant change in survival as observed with highly active antiretroviral treatment, but results suggest that it may work well in a time of more gradual improvement in survival.</p

PHANGS-JWST first results: massive young star clusters and new insights from JWST Observations of NGC 1365

A primary new capability of JWST is the ability to penetrate the dust in star-forming galaxies to identify and study the properties of young star clusters that remain embedded in dust and gas. In this Letter we combine new infrared images taken with JWST with our optical Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images of the starbursting barred (Seyfert2) spiral galaxy NGC 1365. We find that this galaxy has the richest population of massive young clusters of any known galaxy within 30 Mpc, with ∼30 star clusters that are more massive than 106 Me and younger than 10 Myr. Sixteen of these clusters are newly discovered from our JWST observations. An examination of the optical images reveals that 4 of 30 (∼13%) are so deeply embedded that they cannot be seen in the Hubble I band (AV 10 mag), and that 11 of 30 (∼37%) are missing in the HST B band, so age and mass estimates from optical measurements alone are challenging. These numbers suggest that massive clusters in NGC 1365 remain completely obscured in the visible for ∼1.3 ± 0.7 Myr and are either completely or partially obscured for ∼3.7 ± 1.1 Myr. We also use the JWST observations to gain new insights into the triggering of star cluster formation by the collision of gas and dust streamers with gas and dust in the bar. The JWST images reveal previously unknown structures (e.g., bridges and overshoot regions from stars that form in the bar) that help us better understand the orbital dynamics of barred galaxies and associated star-forming rings. Finally, we note that the excellent spatial resolution of the NIRCAM F200W filter provides a better way to separate barely resolved compact clusters from individual stars based on their sizes

What Happened to Gray Whales during the Pleistocene? The Ecological Impact of Sea-Level Change on Benthic Feeding Areas in the North Pacific Ocean

Gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) undertake long migrations, from Baja California to Alaska, to feed on seasonally productive benthos of the Bering and Chukchi seas. The invertebrates that form their primary prey are restricted to shallow water environments, but global sea-level changes during the Pleistocene eliminated or reduced this critical habitat multiple times. Because the fossil record of gray whales is coincident with the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation, gray whales survived these massive changes to their feeding habitat, but it is unclear how.We reconstructed gray whale carrying capacity fluctuations during the past 120,000 years by quantifying gray whale feeding habitat availability using bathymetric data for the North Pacific Ocean, constrained by their maximum diving depth. We calculated carrying capacity based on modern estimates of metabolic demand, prey availability, and feeding duration; we also constrained our estimates to reflect current population size and account for glaciated and non-glaciated areas in the North Pacific. Our results show that key feeding areas eliminated by sea-level lowstands were not replaced by commensurate areas. Our reconstructions show that such reductions affected carrying capacity, and harmonic means of these fluctuations do not differ dramatically from genetic estimates of carrying capacity.Assuming current carrying capacity estimates, Pleistocene glacial maxima may have created multiple, weak genetic bottlenecks, although the current temporal resolution of genetic datasets does not test for such signals. Our results do not, however, falsify molecular estimates of pre-whaling population size because those abundances would have been sufficient to survive the loss of major benthic feeding areas (i.e., the majority of the Bering Shelf) during glacial maxima. We propose that gray whales survived the disappearance of their primary feeding ground by employing generalist filter-feeding modes, similar to the resident gray whales found between northern Washington State and Vancouver Island

PHANGS-JWST First Results: Spurring on Star Formation: JWST Reveals Localized Star Formation in a Spiral Arm Spur of NGC 628

We combine JWST observations with Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array CO and Very Large Telescope MUSE Hα data to examine off-spiral arm star formation in the face-on, grand-design spiral galaxy NGC 628. We focus on the northern spiral arm, around a galactocentric radius of 3-4 kpc, and study two spurs. These form an interesting contrast, as one is CO-rich and one CO-poor, and they have a maximum azimuthal offset in MIRI 21 μm and MUSE Hα of around 40° (CO-rich) and 55° (CO-poor) from the spiral arm. The star formation rate is higher in the regions of the spurs near spiral arms, but the star formation efficiency appears relatively constant. Given the spiral pattern speed and rotation curve of this galaxy and assuming material exiting the arms undergoes purely circular motion, these offsets would be reached in 100-150 Myr, significantly longer than the 21 μm and Hα star formation timescales (both &lt; 10 Myr). The invariance of the star formation efficiency in the spurs versus the spiral arms indicates massive star formation is not only triggered in spiral arms, and cannot simply occur in the arms and then drift away from the wave pattern. These early JWST results show that in situ star formation likely occurs in the spurs, and that the observed young stars are not simply the “leftovers” of stellar birth in the spiral arms. The excellent physical resolution and sensitivity that JWST can attain in nearby galaxies will well resolve individual star-forming regions and help us to better understand the earliest phases of star formation

Reconstructing Galaxy Histories from Globular Clusters

Nearly a century after the true nature of galaxies as distant "island universes" was established, their origin and evolution remain great unsolved problems of modern astrophysics. One of the most promising ways to investigate galaxy formation is to study the ubiquitous globular star clusters that surround most galaxies. Recent advances in our understanding of the globular cluster systems of the Milky Way and other galaxies point to a complex picture of galaxy genesis driven by cannibalism, collisions, bursts of star formation and other tumultuous events.Comment: Review Article published in Nature, 1 January 2004. 18 pages, 4 figures, pdf format onl

PHANGS-JWST first results: rapid evolution of star formation in the central molecular gas ring of NGC 1365

Large-scale bars can fuel galaxy centers with molecular gas, often leading to the development of dense ringlike structures where intense star formation occurs, forming a very different environment compared to galactic disks. We pair ∼0farcs3 (30 pc) resolution new JWST/MIRI imaging with archival ALMA CO(2–1) mapping of the central ∼5 kpc of the nearby barred spiral galaxy NGC 1365 to investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for this extreme star formation. The molecular gas morphology is resolved into two well-known bright bar lanes that surround a smooth dynamically cold gas disk (Rgal ∼ 475 pc) reminiscent of non-star-forming disks in early-type galaxies and likely fed by gas inflow triggered by stellar feedback in the lanes. The lanes host a large number of JWST-identified massive young star clusters. We find some evidence for temporal star formation evolution along the ring. The complex kinematics in the gas lanes reveal strong streaming motions and may be consistent with convergence of gas streamlines expected there. Indeed, the extreme line widths are found to be the result of inter-"cloud" motion between gas peaks; ScousePy decomposition reveals multiple components with line widths of 〈σCO,scouse〉 ≈ 19 km s−1 and surface densities of [OMISSIS], similar to the properties observed throughout the rest of the central molecular gas structure. Tailored hydrodynamical simulations exhibit many of the observed properties and imply that the observed structures are transient and highly time-variable. From our study of NGC 1365, we conclude that it is predominantly the high gas inflow triggered by the bar that is setting the star formation in its CMZ

Androgen and retinoic acid interaction in LNCaP cells, effects on cell proliferation and expression of retinoic acid receptors and epidermal growth factor receptor

BACKGROUND: Modulation of the expression of retinoic acid receptors (RAR) α and γ in adult rat prostate by testosterone (T) suggests that RAR signaling events might mediate some of the androgen effects on prostate cells. METHOD: In this study, we examined the interactions between T and retinoic acid (RA) in cell growth of human prostate carcinoma cells, LNCaP, and their relationship with the expression of RAR and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGF-R). RESULTS: Both T and RA, when administered alone, stimulated (3)H-thymidine incorporation in LNCaP cells in a dose-dependent manner; the effect of each agent was reciprocally attenuated by the other agent. Testosterone treatment of LNCaP cells also resulted in dose dependent, biphasic increases in RAR α and γ mRNAs; increases paralleled that of (3)H-thymidine incorporation and were attenuated by the presence of 100 nM RA. These results suggest a link between RAR signaling and the effect of T on LNCaP cell growth. Gel electrophoretic mobility shift assays revealed the presence of putative androgen responsive element (ARE) in the promoter region of RAR α gene, suggesting that a direct AR-DNA interaction might mediate the effects of T on RAR α gene. Furthermore, treatment of LNCaP cells with 20 nM T resulted in an increase in EGF-R. In contrast, EGF-R was suppressed by 100 nM RA that also suppressed the effect of T. CONCLUSIONS: Current results demonstrate interactions between T and RA in the expression of RARs and cell growth in LNCaP cells. The presence of putative ARE in the promoter of the RAR α gene suggests that AR-DNA interaction might mediate the effects of T on RAR α gene. The opposite effects of T and RA on the expression of RAR and EGF-R suggest that signal events of these receptors might be involved in the interaction between T and RA in the control of LNCaP cell growth

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

PHANGS-JWST First Results: Multiwavelength View of Feedback-driven Bubbles (the Phantom Voids) across NGC 628

We present a high-resolution view of bubbles within the Phantom Galaxy (NGC 628), a nearby (similar to 10 Mpc), star-forming (similar to 2 M (circle dot) yr(-1)), face-on (i similar to 9 degrees) grand-design spiral galaxy. With new data obtained as part of the Physics at High Angular resolution in Nearby GalaxieS (PHANGS)-JWST treasury program, we perform a detailed case study of two regions of interest, one of which contains the largest and most prominent bubble in the galaxy (the Phantom Void, over 1 kpc in diameter), and the other being a smaller region that may be the precursor to such a large bubble (the Precursor Phantom Void). When comparing to matched-resolution H alpha observations from the Hubble Space Telescope, we see that the ionized gas is brightest in the shells of both bubbles, and is coincident with the youngest (similar to 1 Myr) and most massive (similar to 10(5) M (circle dot)) stellar associations. We also find an older generation (similar to 20 Myr) of stellar associations is present within the bubble of the Phantom Void. From our kinematic analysis of the H I, H-2 (CO), and H ii gas across the Phantom Void, we infer a high expansion speed of around 15 to 50 km s(-1). The large size and high expansion speed of the Phantom Void suggest that the driving mechanism is sustained stellar feedback due to multiple mechanisms, where early feedback first cleared a bubble (as we observe now in the Precursor Phantom Void), and since then supernovae have been exploding within the cavity and have accelerated the shell. Finally, comparison to simulations shows a striking resemblance to our JWST observations, and suggests that such large-scale, stellar-feedback-driven bubbles should be common within other galaxies

PHANGS-JWST First Results: A Statistical View on Bubble Evolution in NGC 628

The first JWST observations of nearby galaxies have unveiled a rich population of bubbles that trace the stellar-feedback mechanisms responsible for their creation. Studying these bubbles therefore allows us to chart the interaction between stellar feedback and the interstellar medium, and the larger galactic flows needed to regulate star formation processes globally. We present the first catalog of bubbles in NGC 628, visually identified using Mid-Infrared Instrument F770W Physics at High Angular resolution in Nearby GalaxieS (PHANGS)-JWST observations, and use them to statistically evaluate bubble characteristics. We classify 1694 structures as bubbles with radii between 6 and 552 pc. Of these, 31% contain at least one smaller bubble at their edge, indicating that previous generations of star formation have a local impact on where new stars form. On large scales, most bubbles lie near a spiral arm, and their radii increase downstream compared to upstream. Furthermore, bubbles are elongated in a similar direction to the spiral-arm ridgeline. These azimuthal trends demonstrate that star formation is intimately connected to the spiral-arm passage. Finally, the bubble size distribution follows a power law of index p = −2.2 ± 0.1, which is slightly shallower than the theoretical value by 1-3.5σ that did not include bubble mergers. The fraction of bubbles identified within the shells of larger bubbles suggests that bubble merging is a common process. Our analysis therefore allows us to quantify the number of star-forming regions that are influenced by an earlier generation, and the role feedback processes have in setting the global star formation rate. With the full PHANGS-JWST sample, we can do this for more galaxies