Non-cascaded short-term pumped-storage hydro-thermal scheduling using accelerated particle swarm optimization

© 2018 IEEE. This paper presents the implementation of a variant of the famous particle swarm optimization, known as Accelerated Particle Swarm Optimization (APSO), on a non-cascaded or a two-unit hydro-thermal system with consideration of hydal pumping in light loading intervals of hydro-thermal scheduling period. APSO is an easy to program and easy to implement variant of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) that has the ability to converge to a good approximate to global optimum within a few iterations. A standard pumped-storage hydrothermal scheduling problem, discussed in existing literature, is considered for the implementation of APSO. A comparison of this implementation is also given with the previously existing implementations of other algorithms

Adherence to the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines for chronic heart failure - A national survey of the cardiologists in Pakistan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aims of this study were to evaluate the awareness of and attitudes towards the 2005 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines for Heart Failure (HF) of the cardiologists in Pakistan and assess barriers to adherence to guidelines.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional survey was conducted in person from March to July 2009 to all cardiologists practicing in 4 major cities in Pakistan (Karachi, Lahore, Quetta and Peshawar). A validated, semi-structured questionnaire assessing ESC 2005 Guidelines for HF was used to obtain information from cardiologists. It included questions about awareness and relevance of HF guidelines (See Additional File <supplr sid="S1">1</supplr>). Respondents' management choices were compared with those of an expert panel based on the guidelines for three fictitious patient cases. Cardiologists were also asked about major barriers to adherence to guidelines.</p> <suppl id="S1"> <title> <p>Additional file 1</p> </title> <text> <p><b>Questionnaire</b>. Description: Questionnaire that was administered to participants.</p> </text> <file name="1471-2261-11-68-S1.DOC"> <p>Click here for file</p> </file> </suppl> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 372 cardiologists were approached; 305 consented to participate (overall response rate, 82.0%). The survey showed a very high awareness of CHF guidelines; 97.4% aware of any guideline. About 13.8% considered ESC guidelines as relevant or very relevant for guiding treatment decisions while 92.8% chose AHA guidelines in relevance. 87.2% of respondents perceived that they adhered to the HF guidelines. For the patient cases, the proportions of respondents who made recommendations that completely matched those of the guidelines were 7% (Scenario 1), 0% (Scenario 2) and 20% (Scenario 3). Respondents considered patient compliance (59%) and cost/health economics (50%) as major barriers to guideline implementation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We found important self reported departures from recommended HF management guidelines among cardiologists of Pakistan.</p

Delay in diagnosis of tuberculosis in Rawalpindi, Pakistan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Delay in diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis (TB) may enhance the chances of morbidity and mortality and play a key role in continuous transmission of the bacilli. The objective of this study was to describe health care seeking behavior of suspected TB patients and initial diagnostic work up prior to consultation and diagnosis at National TB Center (NTC).</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>Interviews of 252 sputum smear positive patients were taken from NTC, Rawalpindi. The duration between on-set of symptoms and start of treatment was considered as the total delay and correlated with general characteristics of TB patients. The proportion of males and females were 49.6% and 50.4% with median age of 25 and 24 years respectively. A median delay of 56 days (8 weeks) was observed which was significantly associated with age, cough and fever. More than 50% of the current patients had a history of contact with previously diagnosed TB patients. The majority of patients (63%) visited health care providers within three weeks of appearance of symptoms but only thirty five percent were investigated for TB diagnosis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Cough and fever are being ignored as likely symptoms of TB by patients as well as health care providers resulting in delay. Engaging private practitioners through public private mix (PPM) approach for expansion of TB diagnosis and increasing public awareness could be more beneficial to reduce delay.</p

Effects of ramped wall temperature and concentration on viscoelastic Jeffrey’s fluid flows from a vertical permeable cone

In thermo-fluid dynamics, free convection flows external to different geometries such as cylinders, ellipses, spheres, curved walls, wavy plates, cones etc. play major role in various industrial and process engineering systems. The thermal buoyancy force associated with natural convection flows can exert a critical role in determining skin friction and heat transfer rates at the boundary. In thermal engineering, natural convection flows from cones has gained exceptional interest. A theoretical analysis is developed to investigate the nonlinear, steady-state, laminar, non-isothermal convection boundary layer flows of viscoelastic fluid from a vertical permeable cone with a power-law variation in both temperature and concentration. The Jeffery’s viscoelastic model simulates the non-Newtonian characteristics of polymers, which constitutes the novelty of the present work. The transformed conservation equations for linear momentum, energy and concentration are solved numerically under physically viable boundary conditions using the finite-differences Keller-Box scheme. The impact of Deborah number (De), ratio of relaxation to retardation time (λ), surface suction/injection parameter (fw), power-law exponent (n), buoyancy ratio parameter (N) and dimensionless tangential coordinate (Ѯ) on velocity, surface temperature, concentration, local skin friction, heat transfer rate and mass transfer rate in the boundary layer regime are presented graphically. It is observed that increasing values of De reduces velocity whereas the temperature and concentration are increased slightly. Increasing λ enhance velocity however reduces temperature and concentration slightly. The heat and mass transfer rate are found to decrease with increasing De and increase with increasing values of λ. The skin friction is found to decrease with a rise in De whereas it is elevated with increasing values of λ. Increasing values of fw and n, decelerates the flow and also cools the boundary layer i.e. reduces temperature and also concentration. The study is relevant to chemical engineering systems, solvent and polymeric processes

The importance of service quality in British Muslim’s choice of an Islamic or non-Islamic bank account

Using an extended SERVQUAL model, this study identifies and compares the importance of service quality to Muslim consumers with an Islamic or non-Islamic bank account in a non-Muslim country, Britain. Eight group discussions and survey with 300 Muslims were conducted. Five dimensions of service quality were identified, i.e. Responsiveness, Credibility, Islamic Tangibles, Accessibility and Reputation. These differ in structure and content from the original SERVQUAL developed in the west and the subsequent CARTER model constructed in a Muslim country. In addition, significant differences were found in the importance rating of items by respondents holding an account with an Islamic bank compared to those with a non-Islamic bank account. This study is one of the first to identify and compare the importance of service quality between Islamic and non-Islamic bank account holders in a western non-Muslim country. The results advance our understanding of the impact of culture on SERVQUAL. The study provides insight into Muslims’ bank choice and helps bank managers of both Islamic and non-Islamic banks to focus their attention on the service quality dimensions that matter most to Muslim customers

Secondary prevention of heart disease – knowledge among cardiologists and Ω-3 (Omega-3) fatty acid prescribing behaviors in Karachi, Pakistan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The use of omega-3 fatty acids is a currently proven strategy for secondary prevention of heart disease. The prescription practices for this important nutraceutical is not currently known. It is imperative to assess the knowledge of cardiologists regarding the benefits of omega-3 fatty acids and to determine the frequency of its prescription. The aim of the study was to determine the practices and associations of dietary fish prescribing among cardiologists of Karachi and to assess their knowledge of fish oil supplementation and attitudes toward dietary practices.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross sectional survey was conducted during the period of January to March, 2008. A self report questionnaire was employed. All practicing cardiologists of Karachi were included in the study. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the independent factors associated with high fish prescribers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The sample comprised of a total of 163 cardiologists practicing in Karachi, Pakistan. Most (73.6%) of the cardiologists fell in the age range of 28 – 45 years and were male (90.8%). High fish prescribers only comprised 36.2% of the respondents. After adjusting for age and gender, multivariate analysis revealed that only the variable of knowledge about fish oil's role in reducing sudden cardiac death was independently associated with high fish prescribers OR = 6.38 [95% CI 2.58–15.78].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The level of knowledge about the benefits of omega-3 fatty acids is high and the cardiologists harbor a favorable attitude towards dispensing dietary fish advice. However, the prescription practices are less than optimal and not concordant with recommendations of organisations such as the American Heart Association and National Heart Foundation of Australia. The knowledge of prevention of sudden cardiac death in CVD patients has been identified as an important predictor of high fish prescription. This particular life-saving property of omega-3 fatty acids should be the focus of any implemented educational strategy targeted to improve secondary CVD prevention via omega-3 fatty acid supplementation.</p

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019