Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) in Iran and its neighboring countries, 1990–2015

BACKGROUND: Summary measures of health are essential in making estimates of health status that are comparable across time and place. They can be used for assessing the performance of health systems, informing effective policy making, and monitoring the progress of nations toward achievement of sustainable development goals. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) as main summary measures of health. We assessed the trends of health status in Iran and 15 neighboring countries using these summary measures. METHODS: We used the results of GBD 2015 to present the levels and trends of DALYs, life expectancy (LE), and HALE in Iran and its 15 neighboring countries from 1990 to 2015. For each country, we assessed the ratio of observed levels of DALYs and HALE to those expected based on socio-demographic index (SDI), an indicator composed of measures of total fertility rate, income per capita, and average years of schooling. RESULTS: All-age numbers of DALYs reached over 19 million years in Iran in 2015. The all-age number of DALYs has remained stable during the past two decades in Iran, despite the decreasing trends in all-age and age-standardized rates. The all-cause DALY rates decreased from 47,200 in 1990 to 28,400 per 100,000 in 2015. The share of non-communicable diseases in DALYs increased in Iran (from 42% to 74%) and all of its neighbors between 1990 and 2015; the pattern of change is similar in almost all 16 countries. The DALY rates for NCDs and injuries in Iran were higher than global rates and the average rate in High Middle SDI countries, while those for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders were much lower in Iran. Among men, cardiovascular diseases ranked first in all countries of the region except for Bahrain. Among women, they ranked first in 13 countries. Life expectancy and HALE show a consistent increase in all countries. Still, there are dissimilarities indicating a generally low LE and HALE in Afghanistan and Pakistan and high expectancy in Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Iran ranked 11th in terms of LE at birth and 12th in terms of HALE at birth in 1990 which improved to 9th for both metrics in 2015. Turkey and Iran had the highest increase in LE and HALE from 1990 to 2015 while the lowest increase was observed in Armenia, Pakistan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Iraq. CONCLUSIONS: The levels and trends in causes of DALYs, life expectancy, and HALE generally show similarities between the 16 countries, although differences exist. The differences observed between countries can be attributed to a myriad of determinants, including social, cultural, ethnic, religious, political, economic, and environmental factors as well as the performance of the health system. Investigating the differences between countries can inform more effective health policy and resource allocation. Concerted efforts at national and regional levels are required to tackle the emerging burden of non-communicable diseases and injuries in Iran and its neighbors

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

Burden of ischemic heart diseases in Iran, 1990-2010: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2010

Background: Cardiovascular diseases are viewed worldwide as one of the main causes of death.This study aims to report the burden of ischemic heart diseases (IHDs) in Iran by using data of the global burden of disease (GBD) study, 1990-2010. Materials and Methods: The GBD study 2010 was a systematic effort to provide comprehensive data to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for diseases and injuries in the world. Years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality were computed on the basis of cause-of-death estimates, using Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years lived with disability (YLDs) were assessed by the multiplication of prevalence, the disability weight for a sequel, and the duration of symptoms. A systematic review of published and unpublished data was performed to evaluate the distribution of diseases, and consequently prevalence estimates were calculated with a Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR). Data from population-based surveys were used for producing disability weights. Uncertainty from all inputs into the calculations of DALYs was disseminated by Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Results: The age-standardized IHDs DALY specified rate decreased 31.25 over 20 years from 1990 to 2010 from 4720 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 4,341-5,099) to 3,245 (95% UI: 2,810-3,529) person-years per 100,000. The decrease were 38.14% among women and 26.87% among men. The age-standardized IHDs death specefied rate decreased by 21.17% from 222) 95% UI: 207-243 (to 175 (95% UI:152-190) person-years per 100,000 in both the sexes. The age-standardized YLL and YLD rates decreased 32.05% and 4.28%, respectively, in the above period. Conclusion: Despite decreasing age-standardized IHD of mortality, YLL, YLD, and DALY rates from 1990 to 2010, population growth and aging increased the global burden of IHD. YLL has decreased more than IHD deaths and YLD since 1990 but IHD mortality remains the greatest contributor to disease burden. © 2015 Journal of Research in Medical Sciences

Metabolic risk factors and risk of Covid-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective Based on the epidemiologic findings of Covid-19 incidence; illness and mortality seem to be associated with metabolic risk factors. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the association of metabolic risk factors and risk of Covid-19. Methods This study was designed according to PRISMA guidelines. Two independent researchers searched for the relevant studies using PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Scopus. The search terms developed focusing on two main roots of "Covid-19"and "metabolic risk factors". All relevant observational, analytical studies, review articles, and a meta-analysis on the adult population were included in this meta-analysis. Meta-analysis was performed using the random effect model for pooling proportions to address heterogeneity among studies. Data were analyzed using STATA package version 11.2, (Stata- Corp, USA). Results Through a comprehensive systematic search in the targeted databases we found 1124 papers, after running the proses of refining, 13 studies were included in the present meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of obesity in Covid-19 patients was 29 (95 CI: 14-47). For Diabetes and Hypertension, these were 22 (95 CI: 12 33) and 32 (95 CI: 12 56), respectively. There was significant heterogeneity in the estimates of the three pooled prevalence without any significant small-study effects. Such warning points, to some extent, guide physicians and clinicians to better understand the importance of controlling co-morbid risk factors in prioritizing resource allocation and interventions. Conclusion The meta-analysis showed that hypertension is more prevalent than obesity and diabetes in patients with Covid-19 disease. The prevalence of co-morbid metabolic risk factors must be adopted for better management and priority settings of public health vaccination and other required interventions. The results may help to improve services delivery in COVID-19 patients, while helping to develop better policies for prevention and response to COVID-19 and its critical outcomes. © 2020 Moazzami et al

Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern Mediterranean countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

OBJECTIVES: We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to estimate trends of HIV/AIDS burden in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries between 1990 and 2015. METHODS: Tailored estimation methods were used to produce final estimates of mortality. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying the mortality rate by population by age-specific life expectancy. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were computed as the prevalence of a sequela multiplied by its disability weight. RESULTS: In 2015, the rate of HIV/AIDS deaths in the EMR was 1.8 (1.4–2.5) per 100,000 population, a 43% increase from 1990 (0.3; 0.2–0.8). Consequently, the rate of YLLs due to HIV/AIDS increased from 15.3 (7.6–36.2) per 100,000 in 1990 to 81.9 (65.3–114.4) in 2015. The rate of YLDs increased from 1.3 (0.6–3.1) in 1990 to 4.4 (2.7–6.6) in 2015. CONCLUSIONS: HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality increased in the EMR since 1990. To reverse this trend and achieve epidemic control, EMR countries should strengthen HIV surveillance, and scale up HIV antiretroviral therapy and comprehensive prevention services

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. INTERPRETATION: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Effect of glutamine supplementation on cardiometabolic risk factors and inflammatory markers: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Evidence exists that glutamine plays multiple roles in glucose metabolism, insulin sensitivity, and anti-inflammatory effects. This systematic review and meta-analysis of controlled trials aimed to assess the effect of glutamine supplementation on cardio-metabolic risk factors and inflammatory markers. Methods: The processes of systematic reviews and meta-analyses were performed according to the PRISMA checklist. PubMed, Web of Sciences, Cochrane library, and Scopus databases were search for relevant studies without time or language restrictions up to December 30, 2020. All randomized clinical trials which assessed the effect of glutamine supplementation on �glycemic indices�, �level of triglyceride, �and �inflammatory markers� were included in the study. The effect of glutamine supplementation on cardio-metabolic risk factors and inflammatory markers was assessed using a standardized mean difference (SMD) and 95 confidence interval (CI). Heterogeneity between among studies was assessed using Cochran Q-statistic and I-square. Random/fixed-effects meta-analysis method was used to estimate the pooled SMD. The risk of bias for the included trials was evaluated using the Cochrane quality assessment tool. Results: In total, 12 studies that assessed the effect of glutamine supplementation on cardio-metabolic risk factors were included in the study. Meta-analysis showed that glutamine supplementation significantly decreased significantly serum levels of FPG SMD: � 0.73, 95% CI � 1.35, � 0.11, I2: 84.1% and CRP SMD: � 0.58, 95% CI � 0.1, � 0.17, I2: 0%. The effect of glutamine supplementation on other cardiometabolic risk factors was not statistically significant (P > 0.05). Conclusion: Our findings showed that glutamine supplementation might have a positive effect on FPG and CRP; both of which are crucial as cardio-metabolic risk factors. However, supplementation had no significant effect on other cardio-metabolic risk factors. © 2021, The Author(s)

Health-related quality of life according to the socioeconomic status of living areas in Iranian children and adolescents: Weight disorders survey

Background: Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) has become a major concern in the field of children�s health research. We assessed HRQoL among Iranian children and adolescents according to the socioeconomic status (SES) of their living region. Methods: Via multistage cluster sampling from rural and urban school students aged 6 to 18 years, this nationwide study was conducted from 2011 to 2012. HRQoL was assessed using the adolescent core version of the Pediatric Quality of Life questionnaire. Through survey data analysis methods, the data were compared according to the SES of the living region, sex, and the living area. Results: Overall, 23043 students participated in the survey (participation rate=92.2). The mean age of the participants was 12.55±3.31 years. Boys accounted for 50.8 of the study population, and 73.4 were from urban areas. At national level, the mean of the HRQoL total score was 81.7 (95 CI: 81.3 to 82.1) with a mean of 83.5 (95 CI: 83.0 to 84.1) for the boys and 79.8 (95 CI: 79.1 to 80.5) for the girls. The highest and the lowest scores, respectively, belonged to social functioning (90.0 95% CI: 89.7 to 90.3) and emotional functioning (78.2 95% CI: 77.7 to 78.7). The highest total HRQoL score belonged to the second highest SES region of the country (mean=83.1; 95% CI: 82.5 to 83.7). The association between total HRQoL and the score of all the subscales and SES in the living area was statistically significant (P<0.001). Conclusion: The results of the present study showed that in the children and adolescents, SES was associated with HRQoL. Accordingly, HRQoL and the related SES differences should be considered one of the priorities in health research and health policy. © 2019, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences. All rights reserved

Self-rated health and life satisfaction in iranian children and adolescents at the national and provincial level: The CASPIAN-IV study

Background: Self-rated health (SRH) and life satisfaction (LS) are of increasing interest to medical researchers, because of their close relationship with different aspects of health. Objectives: This paper describes the patterns of LS and SRH among Iranian children and adolescents, analyzed by sex and residence area, at the national and provincial levels. Methods: In this nationwide study 14880 students, aged 6-18 years, were selected by multistage random cluster sampling from urban and rural areas of 30 provinces in Iran, as part of the fourth survey of a national surveillance program conducted in 2011-2012. LS and SRH were assessed through a questionnaire following the World Health Organization-Global School-based Student Health Survey (WHO-GSHS) protocols. Results: 13486 out of 14880 invited students completed the study (participation rate: 90.6). Their average age was 12.47 ± 3.36 years. The prevalence of good SRH at national level was 80.13 (95 CI: 79.25, 80.99); the prevalence of LS among Iranian students at the national level was 80.17 (95 CI: 79.18, 81.13). At the provincial level, the highest and the lowest LS scores were 85.42 (80.01, 89.55) and 74.78 (68.74, 79.99), respectively. Likewise, the highest and the lowest prevalence of good SRH was 88.36 (83.99, 91.66) and 74.22 (69.06, 78.78), respectively. Conclusions: Our findings show that, at provincial levels, a complex set of known/unknown influencing factors affect individuals� assessments of their own health quality. Understanding these patterns of SRH and LS could be useful for better health policy and more targeted studies in this field. © 2016, Iranian Red Crescent Medical Journal