Methods for Estimating Kidney Disease Stage Transition Probabilities Using Electronic Medical Records

Chronic diseases are often described by stages of severity. Clinical decisions about what to do are influenced by the stage, whether a patient is progressing, and the rate of progression. For chronic kidney disease (CKD), relatively little is known about the transition rates between stages. To address this, we used electronic health records (EHR) data on a large primary care population, which should have the advantage of having both sufficient follow-up time and sample size to reliably estimate transition rates for CKD. However, EHR data have some features that threaten the validity of any analysis. In particular, the timing and frequency of labratory values and clinical measurements are not determined a priori by research investigators, but rather, depend on many factors, including the current health of the patient. We developed an approach for estimatating CKD stage transition rates using hidden Markov models (HMMs), when the level of information and observation time vary among individuals. To estimate the HMMs in a computationally manageable way, we used a “discretization” method to transform daily data into intervals of 30 days, 90 days, or 180 days. We assessed the accuracy and computation time of this method via simulation studies. We also used simulations to study the effect of informative observation times on the estimated transition rates. Our simulation results showed good performance of the method, even when missing data are non-ignorable. We applied the methods to EHR data from over 60,000 primary care patients who have chronic kidney disease (stage 2 and above). We estimated transition rates between six underlying disease states. The results were similar for men and women

Accounting for the effect of heterogeneous plastic deformation on the formability of aluminium and steel sheets

Forming Limit Curves characterise ‘mean’ failure strains of sheet metals. Safety levels from the curves define the deterministic upper limit of the processing and part design window, which can be small for high strength, low formability materials. Effects of heterogeneity of plastic deformation, widely accepted to occur on the microscale, are neglected. Marciniak tests were carried out on aluminium alloys (AA6111-T4, NG5754-O), dual-phase steel (DP600) and mild steel (MS3). Digital image correlation was used to measure the effect of heterogeneity on failure. Heterogeneity, based on strain variance was modelled with the 2-component Gaussian Mixture Model and a framework was proposed to 1) identify the onset of necking and to 2) re-define formability as a probability to failure. The result were ‘forming maps’ in major-minor strain space of contours of constant probability (from probability, P=0 to P=1), which showed how failure risk increased with major strain. The contour bands indicated the unique degree of heterogeneity in each material. NG5754-O had the greatest width (0.07 strain) in plane strain and MS3 the lowest (0.03 strain). This novel characterisation will allow engineers to balance a desired forming window for a component design with the risk to failure of the material

Stratifying patients at the risk of heart failure hospitalization using existing device diagnostic thresholds

AbstractBackgroundHeart failure hospitalizations (HFHs) cost the US health care system ∼$20 billion annually. Identifying patients at risk of HFH to enable timely intervention and prevent expensive hospitalization remains a challenge. Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) and cardiac resynchronization devices with defibrillation capability (CRT-Ds) collect a host of diagnostic parameters that change with HF status and collectively have the potential to signal an increasing risk of HFH. These device-collected diagnostic parameters include activity, day and night heart rate, atrial tachycardia/atrial fibrillation (AT/AF) burden, mean rate during AT/AF, percent CRT pacing, number of shocks, and intrathoracic impedance. There are thresholds for these parameters that when crossed trigger a notification, referred to as device observation, which gets noted on the device report. We investigated if these existing device observations can stratify patients at varying risk of HFH.MethodsWe analyzed data from 775 patients (age: 69 ± 11 year, 68% male) with CRT-D devices followed for 13 ± 5 months with adjudicated HFHs. HFH rate was computed for increasing number of device observations. Data were analyzed by both excluding and including intrathoracic impedance. HFH risk was assessed at the time of a device interrogation session, and all the data between previous and current follow-up sessions were used to determine the HFH risk for the next 30 days.Results2276 follow-up sessions in 775 patients were evaluated with 42 HFHs in 37 patients. Percentage of evaluations that were followed by an HFH within the next 30 days increased with increasing number of device observations. Patients with 3 or more device observations were at 42× HFH risk compared to patients with no device observation. Even after excluding intrathoracic impedance, the remaining device parameters effectively stratified patients at HFH risk.ConclusionAvailable device observations could provide an effective method to stratify patients at varying risk of heart failure hospitalization

Surrogate Markers for Time-Varying Treatments and Outcomes

BACKGROUND: A surrogate marker is a variable commonly used in clinical trials to guide treatment decisions when the outcome of ultimate interest is not available. A good surrogate marker is one where the treatment effect on the surrogate is a strong predictor of the effect of treatment on the outcome. We review the situation when there is one treatment delivered at baseline, one surrogate measured at one later time point, and one ultimate outcome of interest and discuss new issues arising when variables are time-varying. METHODS: Most of the literature on surrogate markers has only considered simple settings with one treatment, one surrogate, and one outcome of interest at a fixed time point. However, more complicated time-varying settings are common in practice. In this article, we describe the unique challenges in two settings, time-varying treatments and time-varying surrogates, while relating the ideas back to the causal-effects and causal-association paradigms. CONCLUSION: In addition to discussing and extending popular notions of surrogacy to time-varying settings, we give examples illustrating that one can be misled by not taking into account time-varying information about the surrogate or treatment. We hope this article has provided some motivation for future work on estimation and inference in such settings

Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis in Central Asia

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) has emerged as a major threat to TB control, particularly in the former Soviet Union. To determine levels of drug resistance within a directly observed treatment strategy (DOTS) program supported by Médecins Sans Frontières in two regions in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, Central Asia, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of smear-positive TB patients in selected districts of Karakalpakstan (Uzbekistan) and Dashoguz (Turkmenistan). High levels of MDR-TB were found in both regions. In Karakalpakstan, 14 (13%) of 106 new patients were infected with MDR-TB; 43 (40%) of 107 previously treated patients were similarly infected. The proportions for Dashoguz were 4% (4/105 patients) and 18% (18/98 patients), respectively. Overall, 27% of patients with positive smear results whose infections were treated through the DOTS program in Karakalpakstan and 11% of similar patients in Dashoguz were infected with multidrug-resistant strains of TB on admission. These results show the need for concerted action by the international community to contain transmission and reduce the effects of MDR-TB

The use of citations in educational research: the instance of the concept of 'situated learning'

The paper provides a citation analysis of Lave and Wenger's work on communities of practice' and 'situated learning' over the period 1991-2001. The data relates to educational research in the UK, although comparisons are made with the USA. The findings indicate that although the text was incorporated and heavily used within educational research over the priod of the study there were very few citations that could be identified as cumulative. The discussion looks at whether this could be another instance of the failure of educational research and explores the role of theory in professional educatio