Histological phenotypic subtypes predict recurrence risk and response to adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with stage III colorectal cancer

Histological ‘phenotypic subtypes’ that classify patients into four groups (immune, canonical, latent and stromal) have previously been demonstrated to stratify survival in a stage I–III colorectal cancer (CRC) pilot cohort. However, clinical utility has not yet been validated. Therefore, this study assessed prognostic value of these subtypes in additional patient cohorts along with associations with risk of recurrence and response to chemotherapy. Two independent stage I–III CRC patient cohorts (internal and external cohort) were utilised to investigate phenotypic subtypes. The primary endpoint was disease‐free survival (DFS) and the secondary endpoint was recurrence risk (RR). Stage II–III patients, from the SCOT adjuvant chemotherapy trial, were utilised to further validate prognostic value and for exploratory analysis assessing associations with adjuvant chemotherapy. In an 893‐patient internal cohort, phenotypic subtype independently associated with DFS (p = 0.025) and this was attenuated in stage III patients (p = 0.020). Phenotypic subtype also independently associated with RR (p < 0.001) in these patients. In a 146‐patient external cohort, phenotypic subtype independently stratified patients by DFS (p = 0.028), validating their prognostic value. In 1343 SCOT trial patients, the effect of treatment type significantly depended on phenotypic subtype (pinteraction = 0.011). Phenotypic subtype independently associated with DFS in stage III patients receiving FOLFOX (p = 0.028). Furthermore, the immune subtype significantly associated with better response to FOLFOX compared to CAPOX adjuvant chemotherapy in stage III patients (p = 0.013). In conclusion, histological phenotypic subtypes are an effective prognostic classification in patients with stage III CRC that associates with risk of recurrence and response to FOLFOX adjuvant chemotherapy

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Multidisciplinary management of anal intraepithelial neoplasia and rate of progression to cancer: A retrospective cohort study

Purpose: To describe the regional burden of AIN and rate of progression to cancer in patients managed in specialist and non-specialist clinic settings. Methods: Patients with a histopathological diagnosis of AIN between 1994 and 2018 were retrospectively identified. Clinicopathological characteristics including high-risk status (chronic immunosuppressant use or HIV positive), number and type of biopsy (punch/excision) and histopathological findings were recorded. The relationship between clinicopathological characteristics and progression to cancer was assessed using logistic regression. Results: Of 250 patients identified, 207 were eligible for inclusion: 144 from the specialist and 63 from the non-specialist clinic. Patients in the specialist clinic were younger (&lt;40 years 31% vs 19%, p = 0.007), more likely to be male (34% vs 16%, p = 0.008) and HIV positive (15% vs 2%, p = 0.012). Patients in the non-specialist clinic were less likely to have AIN3 on initial pathology (68% vs 79%, p = 0.074) and were more often followed up for less than 36 months (46% vs 28%, p = 0.134). The rate of progression to cancer was 17% in the whole cohort (20% vs 10%, p = 0.061). On multivariate analysis, increasing age (OR 3.02, 95%CI 1.58–5.78, p &lt; 0.001), high risk status (OR 3.53, 95% CI 1.43–8.74, p = 0.006) and increasing number of excisions (OR 4.88, 95%CI 2.15–11.07, p &lt; 0.001) were related to progression to cancer. Conclusion: The specialist clinic provides a structured approach to the follow up of high-risk status patients with AIN. Frequent monitoring with specialist assessments including high resolution anoscopy in a higher volume clinic are required due to the increased risk of progression to anal cancer