Bollinger Bands Thirty Years Later

The goal of this study is to explain and examine the statistical underpinnings of the Bollinger Band methodology. We start off by elucidating the rolling regression time series model and deriving its explicit relationship to Bollinger Bands. Next we illustrate the use of Bollinger Bands in pairs trading and prove the existence of a specific return duration relationship in Bollinger Band pairs trading.Then by viewing the Bollinger Band moving average as an approximation to the random walk plus noise (RWPN) time series model, we develop a pairs trading variant that we call "Fixed Forecast Maximum Duration' Bands" (FFMDPT). Lastly, we conduct pairs trading simulations using SAP and Nikkei index data in order to compare the performance of the variant with Bollinger Bands

Food and Mood: Exploring the determinants of food choices and the effects of food consumption on mood among women in Inner London.

Introduction: The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between food and mood against the backdrop of increased mental health and nutrition cognizance within public health and scientific discourses. Mood was defined as encompassing positive or negative affect. Methodology: A constructionist qualitative approach underpinned this study. Convenience sampling in two faith-based settings was utilised for recruiting participants, who were aged 19-80 (median,48) years. In total 22 Christian women were included in the research, eighteen were in focus groups and four were in individual semi structured interviews. All were church-attending women in inner London. A thematic analysis was carried out, resulting in four central themes relating to food choice and food-induced mood states. Findings: Women identified a number of internal and external factors as influencing their food choices and the effect of food intake on their moods. Food choice was influenced by mood; mood was influenced by food choice. Low mood was associated with unhealthy food consumption, apparent addiction to certain foods and overeating. Improved mood was associated with more healthy eating and eating in social and familial settings. Discussion: Findings indicate food and mood are interconnected through a complex web of factors, as women respond to individual, environmental, cultural and social cues. Targeting socio-cultural and environmental influences and developing supportive public health services, via faith-based or community-based institutions could help to support more women in their struggle to manage the food and mood continuum. Successful implementation of health policies that recognise the psychological and social determinants of food choice and the effect of food consumption on mood, is essential, as is as more research into life-cycle causal factors linking food choice to moo

Tanzania: Pilot Rural Investment Climate Assessment. Stimulating Nonfarm Microenterprise Growth

Tanzania’s Pilot Rural Investment Climate Assessment (RICA) measures the economic environment of non-farm entrepreneurs. The pilot assessment has three key objectives: it aims to better understand the rural non-farm economy in Tanzania, shed light on rural enterprise dynamics and business constraints, and reflect on areas where government policies are readily directed to help promote rural non-farm enterprise activity. The RICA is based on an analysis of a unique survey data set collected by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) during January and March 2005, covering enterprises, households, and communities in all seven geographical zones of the country. Selected findings are: (i) Non-farm activities are an important source of income for approximately 1.4 million rural households, (ii) Tanzanian rural non-farm enterprises differ from their urban counterparts, (iii) the predominant entrepreneurial activity is trading, (iv) labor productivity is typically low, (v) formal enterprises have higher levels of labor productivity than informal, (vi) the rate of new firm creation appears to be lower than in other African countries, and (vii) only a minority of enterprises propels employment growth. The pilot approach call for a careful evaluation of the following recommendations, which presented to stimulate dialogue and future analysis: (i) favorable policies and investments for agriculture play a big role for rural enterprises, (ii) maintaining favorable internal trade policies may therefore be of utmost importance in determining enterprise performance, (iii) microcredit and savings may offer a tool for promoting rural non-farm activity in buoyant rural markets, (iv) easing bottlenecks in rural infrastructure is important, (v) exploring options for better telecommunications via private sector cell phone nodes may be an attractive policy option to stimulate entrepreneurial activities, (vi) continuation of business registration reform and effective implementation at the local level remains a high priority, and (vii) future analysis should address knowledge gaps.Tanzania; rural labor markets; enterprise performance; informal sector

Internal Migration and Regional Population Dynamics in Europe: Czech Case Study

Report prepared for the Council of Europe (Directorate of Social and Economic Affairs, Population and Migration Division) and for European Commission (Directorate General V, Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Affairs, Unit E1, Analysis and Research on the Social Situation) Czech Republic has experienced, over the last decade, quite a balanced population system with low growth. This has changed recently and from 1994 we noted a decrease in population partially offset by international migration, for the time being mainly temporary labour circular movements. The decreasing trend may well continue due to future replacement in the reproductive ages of large female cohorts with much smaller cohorts, currently aged 0-15 years. Ales and Simek (1996) expect by the year 2020 a population decrease of at least 471 thousand (high variant). International migration will probably reduce to some extent the effect of negative natural increase. In terms of population dynamics the most important feature we have observed is slow but clear deconcentration of population from large cities to suburban areas. The main gains are observed in medium size towns and smaller communities at the expense of large cities and rural areas. However, the migration factor plays a lesser role than in the past. Net migration is low and migration effectiveness is very limited. The relationship between migration and other variables (population density, level of urbanisation) is rather weak. Unemployment has limited negative impacts on migration flows. No doubt, this may change when the serious restructuring of industry starts and unemployment increases - an almost certain scenario given the Czech Republic's willingness to join the European Union. The main enigma of the Czech migration system is its future dynamics. So far migration has been low, but with the development of the economy, including the housing market, improvement of telecommunication and increasing wealth of the society one may expect that migration trends would contribute much more to the regional population dynamics. The large units for which migration data were available in the Czech Republic reduce the number of inter-unit migrations, increase the number of intra-unit migrations, and in effect blur the picture of mobility, which anyway is quite low. Another factor, which made the analysis somewhat difficult is the mixture of signals sent to the economy by the Czech government. This mixture has confused professional economists, not to speak of ordinary people