A Directional Modifier-Adaptation Algorithm for Real-Time Optimization

The steady advances of computational methods make model-based optimization an increasingly attractive method for process improvement. Unfortunately, the available models are often inaccurate. The traditional remedy is to update the model parameters, but this generally leads to a difficult parameter estimation problem that must be solved on-line. In addition, the resulting model may poorly represent the plant when there is structural mismatch between the two. The iterative optimization method called Modifier Adaptation overcomes these obstacles by directly incorporating plant measurements into the optimization framework, principally in the form of constraint values and gradients. However, the experimental cost (i.e. the number of experiments required) to estimate these gradients increases linearly with the number of process inputs, which tends to make the method intractable for processes with many inputs. This paper presents a new algorithm, called Directional Modier Adaptation, that overcomes this limitation by only estimating the plant gradients in certain privileged directions. It is proven that plant optimality with respect to these privileged directions can be guaranteed upon convergence. A novel, statistically optimal, gradient estimation technique is developed. The algorithm is illustrated through the simulation of a realistic airborne wind-energy system, a promising renewable energy technology that harnesses wind energy using large kites. It is shown that Directional Modifier Adaptation can optimize in real time the path followed by the dynamically flying kite

Systems medicine and integrated care to combat chronic noncommunicable diseases

We propose an innovative, integrated, cost-effective health system to combat major non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including cardiovascular, chronic respiratory, metabolic, rheumatologic and neurologic disorders and cancers, which together are the predominant health problem of the 21st century. This proposed holistic strategy involves comprehensive patient-centered integrated care and multi-scale, multi-modal and multi-level systems approaches to tackle NCDs as a common group of diseases. Rather than studying each disease individually, it will take into account their intertwined gene-environment, socio-economic interactions and co-morbidities that lead to individual-specific complex phenotypes. It will implement a road map for predictive, preventive, personalized and participatory (P4) medicine based on a robust and extensive knowledge management infrastructure that contains individual patient information. It will be supported by strategic partnerships involving all stakeholders, including general practitioners associated with patient-centered care. This systems medicine strategy, which will take a holistic approach to disease, is designed to allow the results to be used globally, taking into account the needs and specificities of local economies and health systems

Association of the PHACTR1/EDN1 genetic locus with spontaneous coronary artery dissection

Background: Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) is an increasingly recognized cause of acute coronary syndromes (ACS) afflicting predominantly younger to middle-aged women. Observational studies have reported a high prevalence of extracoronary vascular anomalies, especially fibromuscular dysplasia (FMD) and a low prevalence of coincidental cases of atherosclerosis. PHACTR1/EDN1 is a genetic risk locus for several vascular diseases, including FMD and coronary artery disease, with the putative causal noncoding variant at the rs9349379 locus acting as a potential enhancer for the endothelin-1 (EDN1) gene. Objectives: This study sought to test the association between the rs9349379 genotype and SCAD. Methods: Results from case control studies from France, United Kingdom, United States, and Australia were analyzed to test the association with SCAD risk, including age at first event, pregnancy-associated SCAD (P-SCAD), and recurrent SCAD. Results: The previously reported risk allele for FMD (rs9349379-A) was associated with a higher risk of SCAD in all studies. In a meta-analysis of 1,055 SCAD patients and 7,190 controls, the odds ratio (OR) was 1.67 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50 to 1.86) per copy of rs9349379-A. In a subset of 491 SCAD patients, the OR estimate was found to be higher for the association with SCAD in patients without FMD (OR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.53 to 2.33) than in SCAD cases with FMD (OR: 1.60; 95% CI: 1.28 to 1.99). There was no effect of genotype on age at first event, P-SCAD, or recurrence. Conclusions: The first genetic risk factor for SCAD was identified in the largest study conducted to date for this condition. This genetic link may contribute to the clinical overlap between SCAD and FMD

TRY plant trait database – enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits - the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants - determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait‐based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits - almost complete coverage for ‘plant growth form’. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait–environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Modelling human choices: MADeM and decision‑making

Research supported by FAPESP 2015/50122-0 and DFG-GRTK 1740/2. RP and AR are also part of the Research, Innovation and Dissemination Center for Neuromathematics FAPESP grant (2013/07699-0). RP is supported by a FAPESP scholarship (2013/25667-8). ACR is partially supported by a CNPq fellowship (grant 306251/2014-0)

COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study

Background: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. Methods: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. Results: ‘Typical’ symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P < 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. Interpretation: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men

3D in-situ measurements of entrainment-related cumulus clouds properties using a swarm of unmanned aerial vehicles

International audienceEntrainment-related shallow cumulus clouds properties have largely been studied using large-eddy simulation. These previousstudies have led to various cumulus clouds parameterizations. On the other hand, simultaneous in-situ 3D sampling ofindividual cloud at spatial and temporal resolutions comparable to Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is still lacking. The need to fill inthis 3D observational data insufficiency and to validate previous LES findings has propelled the Skyscanner project; using theconcept of a multi-UAV-based adaptive sampling strategy. This project is a joint collaboration with institutes specializing inaviation, robotics, and atmospheric science. In order to capture 3D cloud properties simultaneously, the multi-UAVs pathplanning relies on a cumulus cloud conceptual model. This model that relates the evolution of geometrical and microphysicalproperties of individual clouds has been derived from LES numerical experiments using MesoNH-LES and potentially WRFLESmodels. In addition to the interaction with individual cloud properties, the multi-UAVs path planning is sensitive to theevolution of the convective boundary layer and the cloud spatial extent. The synchronized swarm of unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs) focuses mainly on locating and quantifying the evolution of the entrainment-related cloud properties including thesubsiding shell around individual shallow cumulus clouds

Use of Large-Eddy simulations to design an adaptive sampling strategy to assess cumulus cloud heterogeneities by Remotely Piloted Aircraft

Trade wind cumulus clouds have a significant impact on the earth's radiative balance, due to their ubiquitous presence and significant coverage in subtropical regions. Many numerical studies and field campaigns have focused on better understanding the thermodynamic and macroscopic properties of cumulus clouds with ground-based and satellite remote sensing as well as in-situ observations. Aircraft flights have provided a significant contribution, but their resolution remains limited by rectilinear transects and fragmented temporal data of individual clouds. To provide a higher spatial and temporal resolution, Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) can now be employed for direct observations, using numerous technological advances, to map the microphysical cloud structure and to study entrainment mixing. In fact, the numerical representation of mixing processes between a cloud and the surrounding air has been a key issue in model parameterizations for decades. To better study these mixing processes as well as their impacts on cloud microphysical properties, the manuscript aims to improve exploration strategies that can be implemented by a fleet of RPAs. Here, we use a Large-Eddy simulation (LES) of oceanic cumulus clouds to design adaptive sampling strategies. An implementation of the RPA flight simulator within high-frequency LES outputs (every 5 s) allows to track individual clouds. A Rosette sampling strategy is used to explore clouds of different sizes, static in time and space. The adaptive sampling carried out by these explorations is optimized using one ors two RPAs and with or without Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) mapping, 1by comparing the results obtained with those of a reference simulation, in particular the total liquid water content (LWC) and the LWC distributions in a horizontal cross section. Also, a sensitivity test of lengthscale for GPR mapping is performed. The results of exploring a static cloud are then extended to a dynamic case of a cloud evolving with time, to assess the application of this exploration strategy to study the evolution of cloud heterogeneities