Toward Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions using Seismic Noise

During inter-eruption periods, magma pressurization yields subtle changes of the elastic properties of volcanic edifices. We use the reproducibility properties of the ambient seismic noise recorded on the Piton de la Fournaise volcano to measure relative seismic velocity variations of less than 0.1 % with a temporal resolution of one day. Our results show that five studied volcanic eruptions were preceded by clearly detectable seismic velocity decreases within the zone of magma injection. These precursors reflect the edifice dilatation induced by magma pressurization and can be useful indicators to improve the forecasting of volcanic eruptions.Comment: Supplementary information: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguier_SI.pdf Supplementary video: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguierMovieVolcano.av

P and S velocity sturcture of the crust and the upper mantle beneath Central Java from local tomography inversion

Here we present the results of local source tomographic inversion beneath central Java. The data set was collected by a temporary seismic network. More than 100 stations were operated for almost half a year. About 13,000 P and S arrival times from 292 events were used to obtain three-dimensional (3-D) Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs models of the crust and the mantle wedge beneath central Java. Source location and determination of the 3-D velocity models were performed simultaneously based on a new iterative tomographic algorithm, LOTOS-06. Final event locations clearly image the shape of the subduction zone beneath central Java. The dipping angle of the slab increases gradually from almost horizontal to about 70°. A double seismic zone is observed in the slab between 80 and 150 km depth. The most striking feature of the resulting P and S models is a pronounced low-velocity anomaly in the crust, just north of the volcanic arc (Merapi-Lawu anomaly (MLA)). An algorithm for estimation of the amplitude value, which is presented in the paper, shows that the difference between the fore arc and MLA velocities at a depth of 10 km reaches 30% and 36% in P and S models, respectively. The value of the Vp/Vs ratio inside the MLA is more than 1.9. This shows a probable high content of fluids and partial melts within the crust. In the upper mantle we observe an inclined low-velocity anomaly which links the cluster of seismicity at 100 km depth with MLA. This anomaly might reflect ascending paths of fluids released from the slab. The reliability of all these patterns was tested thoroughly

Stress, strain and mass changes at Mt. Etna during the period between the 1991–93 and 2001 flank eruptions

During the ~8-year period between the 1991–93 and 2001 flank eruptions, the eruptive activity of Mt. Etna was confined to the summit craters. Deformation and tomography studies indicate that this activity was fed by a magma accumulation zone centered NE of the summit, at a depth of 5 to 9 km below sea level. The most significant gravity changes measured during the same period were induced by mass redistributions at shallower depth below the southeastern flank of the volcano, where minor ground deformation was observed (i.e., vertical displacements within 2 cm). The mismatch between the position of pressure and mass sources is difficult to explain under the assumption that both are directly related to magma dynamics. Past studies have suggested that the gravity changes observed during 1994–2001 may primarily reflect changes in the rate of microfracturing along the NNW–SSE fracture/weakness zone (FWZ) that crosses the SE slope of Etna. We use the finite element method to shed new light on the complex relations between stress, strain and mass changes that occurred at Etna during the studied period. In particular, following previous results on the degradation of the mechanical properties of rocks, we perform a set of simulations assuming that the part of the medium containing the FWZ is characterized by a lower Young's modulus than would be expected from interpolation of tomographic data. We find that the presence of the FWZ creates a distortion of the displacement field induced by the deeper pressure source, locally resulting in a weak extensional regime. This finding supports the hypothesis of a cause–effect relationship between pressurization beneath the NW flank and tensile extension beneath the SE slope of the volcano. We propose that this extensional regime enhanced the propagation of pressurized gas, that, in turn, amplified the tensile strain across the FWZ. We also find that decreasing the value of Young's modulus in the FWZ allows for a larger amount of extension at depth, with no change in the magnitude of surface displacements. This result provides an indication of how the changes in the rate of microfracturing at depth, which are needed to induce the observed gravity changes, might have occurred without large ground deformation

New Insight on the Increasing Seismicity during Tenerife's 2004 Volcanic Reactivation

Starting in April 2004, unusual seismic activity was observed in the interior of the island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain) with much evidence pointing to a reawakening of volcanic activity. This seismicity is now analyzed with techniques unprecedented in previous studies of this crisis. The 200 earthquakes located onshore during 2004 and 2005 have been classified by cross-correlation, resulting in a small number of significant families. The application of a relative location algorithm (hypoDD) revealed important features about the spatial distribution of the earthquakes. The seismic catalogue has been enhanced with more than 800 additional events, detected only by the closest seismic station. These events were assigned to families by correlation and as a consequence their hypocentral location and magnitude were estimated by comparing them to the earthquakes of each family. The new catalogue obtained by these methods identifies two major seismogenic zones, one to the northwest and the other to the southwest of the Teide-Pico Viejo complex and having a separation of at least 10 km between them. These regions alternate their activity starting in January 2004, i.e., three months earlier than previously thought. We propose a simple model based on the results of this work which will also concur with all previous geophysical and geochemical studies of the 2004 crisis. The model proposes a single magma intrusion affecting the central part of the island with lateral dikes driven by the rifts to the northwest and southwest.Comment: 20 pages, 15 figure

Joint Inversion of Active and Passive Seismic Data in Central Java

Seismic and volcanic activities in Central Java, Indonesia, the area of interest of this study, are directly or indirectly related to the subduction of the Indo-Australian plate. In the framework of the MERapi AMphibious EXperiments (MERAMEX), a network consisting of about 130 seismographic stations was installed onshore and offshore in Central Java and operated for more than 150 days. In addition, 3-D active seismic experiments were carried out offshore. In this paper, we present the results of processing combined active and passive seismic data, which contain traveltimes from 292 local earthquakes and additional airgun shots along three offshore profiles. The inversion was performed using the updated LOTOS-06 code that allows processing for active and passive source data. The joint inversion of the active and passive data set considerably improves the resolution of the upper crust, especially in the offshore area in comparison to only passive data. The inversion results are verified using a series of synthetic tests. The resulting images showan exceptionally strong low-velocity anomaly (−30 per cent) in the backarc crust northward of the active volcanoes. In the upper mantle beneath the volcanoes, we observe a low-velocity anomaly inclined towards the slab, which probably reflects the paths of fluids and partially melted materials in the mantle wedge. The crust in the forearc appears to be strongly heterogeneous. The onshore part consists of two high-velocity blocks separated by a narrow low-velocity anomaly, which can be interpreted as a weakened contact zone between two rigid crustal bodies. The recent Java Mw = 6.3 earthquake (2006/05/26-UTC) occurred at the lower edge of this zone. Its focal strike slip mechanism is consistent with the orientation of this contact

Similarities and differences in the historical records of lava dome-building volcanoes: implications for understanding magmatic processes and eruption forecasting

A key question for volcanic hazard assessment is the extent to which information can be exchanged between volcanoes. This question is particularly pertinent to hazard forecasting for dome-building volcanoes, where effusive activity may persist for years to decades, and may be punctuated by periods of repose, and sudden explosive activity. Here we review historical eruptive activity of fifteen lava dome-building volcanoes over the past two centuries, with the goal of creating a hierarchy of exchangeable (i.e., similar) behaviours. Eruptive behaviour is classified using empirical observations that include patterns of SO2 flux, eruption style, and magma composition. We identify two eruptive regimes: (i) an episodic regime where eruptions are much shorter than intervening periods of repose, and degassing is temporally correlated with lava effusion; and (ii) a persistent regime where eruptions are comparable in length to periods of repose and gas emissions do not correlate with eruption rates. A corollary to these two eruptive regimes is that there are also two different types of repose: (i) inter-eruptive repose separates episodic eruptions, and is characterised by negligible gas emissions and (ii) intra-eruptive repose is observed in persistently active volcanoes, and is characterised by continuous gas emissions. We suggest that these different patterns of can be used to infer vertical connectivity within mush-dominated magmatic systems. We also note that our recognition of two different types of repose raises questions about traditional definitions of historical volcanism as a point process. This is important, because the ontology of eruptive activity (that is, the definition of volcanic activity in time) influences both analysis of volcanic data and, by extension, interpretations of magmatic processes. Our analysis suggests that one identifying exchangeable traits or behaviours provides a starting point for developing robust ontologies of volcanic activity. Moreover, by linking eruptive regimes to conceptual models of magmatic processes, we illustrate a path towards developing a conceptual framework not only for comparing data between different volcanoes but also for improving forecasts of eruptive activity

Single station Monitoring of Volcanoes Using Seismic ambient noise

Seismic ambient noise cross correlation is increasingly used to monitor volcanic activity. However, this method is usually limited to volcanoes equipped with large and dense networks of broadband stations. The single station approach may provide a powerful and reliable alternative to the classical “cross-stations” approach when measuring variation of seismic velocities. We implemented it on the Piton de la Fournaise in Reunion Island, a very active volcano with a remarkable multi-disciplinary continuous monitoring. Over the past decade, this volcano was increasingly studied using the traditional cross-correlation technique and therefore represents a unique laboratory to validate our approach. Our results, tested on stations located up to 3.5 km from the eruptive site, performed as well as the classical approach to detect the volcanic eruption in the 1-2 Hz frequency band. This opens new perspectives to successfully forecast volcanic activity at volcanoes equipped with a single 3-component seismometer

Pre- and syn-eruptive degassing and crystallisation processes of the 2010 and 2006 eruptions of Merapi volcano, Indonesia

The 2010 eruption of Merapi (VEI 4) was the volcano’s largest since 1872. In contrast to the prolonged and effusive dome-forming eruptions typical of Merapi’s recent activity, the 2010 eruption began explosively, before a new dome was rapidly emplaced. This new dome was subsequently destroyed by explosions, generating pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), predominantly consisting of dark coloured, dense blocks of basaltic andesite dome lava. A shift towards open-vent conditions in the later stages of the eruption culminated in multiple explosions and the generation of PDCs with conspicuous grey scoria and white pumice clasts resulting from sub-plinian convective column collapse. This paper presents geochemical data for melt inclusions and their clinopyroxene hosts extracted from dense dome lava, grey scoria and white pumice generated during the peak of the 2010 eruption. These are compared with clinopyroxene-hosted melt inclusions from scoriaceous dome fragments from the prolonged dome-forming 2006 eruption, to elucidate any relationship between pre-eruptive degassing and crystallisation processes and eruptive style. Secondary ion mass spectrometry analysis of volatiles (H2O, CO2) and light lithophile elements (Li, B, Be) is augmented by electron microprobe analysis of major elements and volatiles (Cl, S, F) in melt inclusions and groundmass glass. Geobarometric analysis shows that the clinopyroxene phenocrysts crystallised at depths of up to 20 km, with the greatest calculated depths associated with phenocrysts from the white pumice. Based on their volatile contents, melt inclusions have re-equilibrated during shallower storage and/or ascent, at depths of ~0.6–9.7 km, where the Merapi magma system is interpreted to be highly interconnected and not formed of discrete magma reservoirs. Melt inclusions enriched in Li show uniform “buffered” Cl concentrations, indicating the presence of an exsolved brine phase. Boron-enriched inclusions also support the presence of a brine phase, which helped to stabilise B in the melt. Calculations based on S concentrations in melt inclusions and groundmass glass require a degassing melt volume of 0.36 km3 in order to produce the mass of SO2 emitted during the 2010 eruption. This volume is approximately an order of magnitude higher than the erupted magma (DRE) volume. The transition between the contrasting eruptive styles in 2010 and 2006 is linked to changes in magmatic flux and changes in degassing style, with the explosive activity in 2010 driven by an influx of deep magma, which overwhelmed the shallower magma system and ascended rapidly, accompanied by closed-system degassing