352 research outputs found

    Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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    Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

    The Molecular Taxonomy of Primary Prostate Cancer

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    There is substantial heterogeneity among primary prostate cancers, evident in the spectrum of molecular abnormalities and its variable clinical course. As part of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), we present a comprehensive molecular analysis of 333 primary prostate carcinomas. Our results revealed a molecular taxonomy in which 74% of these tumors fell into one of seven subtypes defined by specific gene fusions (ERG, ETV1/4, and FLI1) or mutations (SPOP, FOXA1, and IDH1). Epigenetic profiles showed substantial heterogeneity, including an IDH1 mutant subset with a methylator phenotype. Androgen receptor (AR) activity varied widely and in a subtype-specific manner, with SPOP and FOXA1 mutant tumors having the highest levels of AR-induced transcripts. 25% of the prostate cancers had a presumed actionable lesion in the PI3K or MAPK signaling pathways, and DNA repair genes were inactivated in 19%. Our analysis reveals molecular heterogeneity among primary prostate cancers, as well as potentially actionable molecular defectsclose

    Characterisation of microbial attack on archaeological bone

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    As part of an EU funded project to investigate the factors influencing bone preservation in the archaeological record, more than 250 bones from 41 archaeological sites in five countries spanning four climatic regions were studied for diagenetic alteration. Sites were selected to cover a range of environmental conditions and archaeological contexts. Microscopic and physical (mercury intrusion porosimetry) analyses of these bones revealed that the majority (68%) had suffered microbial attack. Furthermore, significant differences were found between animal and human bone in both the state of preservation and the type of microbial attack present. These differences in preservation might result from differences in early taphonomy of the bones. © 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

    Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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    Evaluation of a quality improvement intervention to reduce anastomotic leak following right colectomy (EAGLE): pragmatic, batched stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized trial in 64 countries

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    Background Anastomotic leak affects 8 per cent of patients after right colectomy with a 10-fold increased risk of postoperative death. The EAGLE study aimed to develop and test whether an international, standardized quality improvement intervention could reduce anastomotic leaks. Methods The internationally intended protocol, iteratively co-developed by a multistage Delphi process, comprised an online educational module introducing risk stratification, an intraoperative checklist, and harmonized surgical techniques. Clusters (hospital teams) were randomized to one of three arms with varied sequences of intervention/data collection by a derived stepped-wedge batch design (at least 18 hospital teams per batch). Patients were blinded to the study allocation. Low- and middle-income country enrolment was encouraged. The primary outcome (assessed by intention to treat) was anastomotic leak rate, and subgroup analyses by module completion (at least 80 per cent of surgeons, high engagement; less than 50 per cent, low engagement) were preplanned. Results A total 355 hospital teams registered, with 332 from 64 countries (39.2 per cent low and middle income) included in the final analysis. The online modules were completed by half of the surgeons (2143 of 4411). The primary analysis included 3039 of the 3268 patients recruited (206 patients had no anastomosis and 23 were lost to follow-up), with anastomotic leaks arising before and after the intervention in 10.1 and 9.6 per cent respectively (adjusted OR 0.87, 95 per cent c.i. 0.59 to 1.30; P = 0.498). The proportion of surgeons completing the educational modules was an influence: the leak rate decreased from 12.2 per cent (61 of 500) before intervention to 5.1 per cent (24 of 473) after intervention in high-engagement centres (adjusted OR 0.36, 0.20 to 0.64; P < 0.001), but this was not observed in low-engagement hospitals (8.3 per cent (59 of 714) and 13.8 per cent (61 of 443) respectively; adjusted OR 2.09, 1.31 to 3.31). Conclusion Completion of globally available digital training by engaged teams can alter anastomotic leak rates. Registration number: NCT04270721 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov)

    Measurement of the double-differential inclusive jet cross section in proton-proton collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 5.02 TeV

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    International audienceThe inclusive jet cross section is measured as a function of jet transverse momentum pTp_\mathrm{T} and rapidity yy. The measurement is performed using proton-proton collision data at s\sqrt{s} = 5.02 TeV, recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 27.4 pb1^{-1}. The jets are reconstructed with the anti-kTk_\mathrm{T} algorithm using a distance parameter of RR = 0.4, within the rapidity interval y\lvert y\rvert<\lt 2, and across the kinematic range 0.06 <\ltpTp_\mathrm{T}<\lt 1 TeV. The jet cross section is unfolded from detector to particle level using the determined jet response and resolution. The results are compared to predictions of perturbative quantum chromodynamics, calculated at both next-to-leading order and next-to-next-to-leading order. The predictions are corrected for nonperturbative effects, and presented for a variety of parton distribution functions and choices of the renormalization/factorization scales and the strong coupling αS\alpha_\mathrm{S}

    Measurement of the double-differential inclusive jet cross section in proton-proton collisions at s= \sqrt{s} = 5.02 TeV

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    The inclusive jet cross section is measured as a function of jet transverse momentum pT p_{\mathrm{T}} and rapidity y y . The measurement is performed using proton-proton collision data at s= \sqrt{s} = 5.02 TeV, recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 27.4pb1\,\text{pb}^{-1}. The jets are reconstructed with the anti-kT k_{\mathrm{T}} algorithm using a distance parameter of R= R= 0.4, within the rapidity interval y< |y| < 2, and across the kinematic range 0.06 <pT< < p_{\mathrm{T}} < 1 TeV. The jet cross section is unfolded from detector to particle level using the determined jet response and resolution. The results are compared to predictions of perturbative quantum chromodynamics, calculated at both next-to-leading order and next-to-next-to-leading order. The predictions are corrected for nonperturbative effects, and presented for a variety of parton distribution functions and choices of the renormalization/factorization scales and the strong coupling αS \alpha_\mathrm{S} .The inclusive jet cross section is measured as a function of jet transverse momentum pTp_\mathrm{T} and rapidity yy. The measurement is performed using proton-proton collision data at s\sqrt{s} = 5.02 TeV, recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 27.4 pb1^{-1}. The jets are reconstructed with the anti-kTk_\mathrm{T} algorithm using a distance parameter of RR = 0.4, within the rapidity interval y\lvert y\rvert<\lt 2, and across the kinematic range 0.06 <\ltpTp_\mathrm{T}<\lt 1 TeV. The jet cross section is unfolded from detector to particle level using the determined jet response and resolution. The results are compared to predictions of perturbative quantum chromodynamics, calculated at both next-to-leading order and next-to-next-to-leading order. The predictions are corrected for nonperturbative effects, and presented for a variety of parton distribution functions and choices of the renormalization/factorization scales and the strong coupling αS\alpha_\mathrm{S}

    Measurement of the double-differential inclusive jet cross section in proton-proton collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 5.02 TeV

    No full text
    International audienceThe inclusive jet cross section is measured as a function of jet transverse momentum pTp_\mathrm{T} and rapidity yy. The measurement is performed using proton-proton collision data at s\sqrt{s} = 5.02 TeV, recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 27.4 pb1^{-1}. The jets are reconstructed with the anti-kTk_\mathrm{T} algorithm using a distance parameter of RR = 0.4, within the rapidity interval y\lvert y\rvert<\lt 2, and across the kinematic range 0.06 <\ltpTp_\mathrm{T}<\lt 1 TeV. The jet cross section is unfolded from detector to particle level using the determined jet response and resolution. The results are compared to predictions of perturbative quantum chromodynamics, calculated at both next-to-leading order and next-to-next-to-leading order. The predictions are corrected for nonperturbative effects, and presented for a variety of parton distribution functions and choices of the renormalization/factorization scales and the strong coupling αS\alpha_\mathrm{S}

    Measurement of the double-differential inclusive jet cross section in proton-proton collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 5.02 TeV

    No full text
    International audienceThe inclusive jet cross section is measured as a function of jet transverse momentum pTp_\mathrm{T} and rapidity yy. The measurement is performed using proton-proton collision data at s\sqrt{s} = 5.02 TeV, recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 27.4 pb1^{-1}. The jets are reconstructed with the anti-kTk_\mathrm{T} algorithm using a distance parameter of RR = 0.4, within the rapidity interval y\lvert y\rvert<\lt 2, and across the kinematic range 0.06 <\ltpTp_\mathrm{T}<\lt 1 TeV. The jet cross section is unfolded from detector to particle level using the determined jet response and resolution. The results are compared to predictions of perturbative quantum chromodynamics, calculated at both next-to-leading order and next-to-next-to-leading order. The predictions are corrected for nonperturbative effects, and presented for a variety of parton distribution functions and choices of the renormalization/factorization scales and the strong coupling αS\alpha_\mathrm{S}
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