Combining Aboriginal knowledge and Western science to investigate possible explanations for the decline in fruit production of a bush tucker shrub, Djutpi, near Ngukurr, Northern Territory

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Ascertainment bias causes false signal of anticipation in genetic prion disease.

Anticipation is the phenomenon whereby age of onset in genetic disease decreases in successive generations. Three independent reports have claimed anticipation in Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) caused by the c.598G > A mutation in PRNP encoding a p.Glu200Lys (E200K) substitution in the prion protein. If confirmed, this finding would carry clear implications for genetic counseling. We analyzed pedigrees with this mutation from four prion centers worldwide (n = 217 individuals with the mutation) to analyze age of onset and death in affected and censored individuals. We show through simulation that selective ascertainment of individuals whose onset falls within the historical window since the mutation's 1989 discovery is sufficient to create robust false signals both of anticipation and of heritability of age of onset. In our data set, the number of years of anticipation observed depends upon how strictly the data are limited by the ascertainment window. Among individuals whose disease was directly observed at a study center, a 28-year difference between parent and child age of onset is observed (p = 0.002), but including individuals ascertained retrospectively through family history reduces this figure to 7 years (p = 0.005). Applying survival analysis to the most thoroughly ascertained subset of data eliminates the signal of anticipation. Moreover, even non-CJD deaths exhibit 16 years anticipation (p = 0.002), indicating that ascertainment bias can entirely explain observed anticipation. We suggest that reports of anticipation in genetic prion disease are driven entirely by ascertainment bias. Guidelines for future studies claiming statistical evidence for anticipation are suggested

Ascertainment bias causes false signal of anticipation in genetic prion disease.

Anticipation is the phenomenon whereby age of onset in genetic disease decreases in successive generations. Three independent reports have claimed anticipation in Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) caused by the c.598G > A mutation in PRNP encoding a p.Glu200Lys (E200K) substitution in the prion protein. If confirmed, this finding would carry clear implications for genetic counseling. We analyzed pedigrees with this mutation from four prion centers worldwide (n = 217 individuals with the mutation) to analyze age of onset and death in affected and censored individuals. We show through simulation that selective ascertainment of individuals whose onset falls within the historical window since the mutation's 1989 discovery is sufficient to create robust false signals both of anticipation and of heritability of age of onset. In our data set, the number of years of anticipation observed depends upon how strictly the data are limited by the ascertainment window. Among individuals whose disease was directly observed at a study center, a 28-year difference between parent and child age of onset is observed (p = 0.002), but including individuals ascertained retrospectively through family history reduces this figure to 7 years (p = 0.005). Applying survival analysis to the most thoroughly ascertained subset of data eliminates the signal of anticipation. Moreover, even non-CJD deaths exhibit 16 years anticipation (p = 0.002), indicating that ascertainment bias can entirely explain observed anticipation. We suggest that reports of anticipation in genetic prion disease are driven entirely by ascertainment bias. Guidelines for future studies claiming statistical evidence for anticipation are suggested

Mycophenolate plus methylprednisolone versus methylprednisolone alone in active, moderate-to-severe Graves' orbitopathy (MINGO): a randomised, observer-masked, multicentre trial.

European guidelines recommend intravenous methylprednisolone as first-line treatment for active and severe Graves' orbitopathy; however, it is common for patients to have no response or have relapse after discontinuation of treatment. We aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of add-on mycophenolate to methylprednisolone in comparison with methylprednisolone alone in patients with moderate-to-severe Graves' orbitopathy. MINGO was an observer-masked, multicentre, block-randomised, centre-stratified trial done in two centres in Germany and two in Italy. Patients with active moderate-to-severe Graves' orbitopathy were randomly assigned to receive intravenous methylprednisolone (500 mg once per week for 6 weeks followed by 250 mg per week for 6 weeks) either alone or with mycophenolate (one 360 mg tablet twice per day for 24 weeks). The prespecified primary endpoints were rate of response (reduction of at least two parameters of a composite ophthalmic index [eyelid swelling, clinical activity score, proptosis, lid width, diplopia, and eye muscle motility] without deterioration in any other parameter) at 12 weeks and rate of relapse (a worsening of symptoms that occurred after a response) at 24 and 36 weeks. Rates of response at week 24 and sustained response at week 36 were added as post-hoc outcomes. Prespecified primary outcomes and post-hoc outcomes were assessed in the modified intention-to-treat population (defined as all patients assigned to treatment who received at least one infusion of methylprednisolone, when outcome data were available), and safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of study drug. This trial is registered with the EU Clinical Trials Register, EUDRACT number 2008-002123-93. 164 patients were enrolled and randomised between Nov 29, 2009, and July 31, 2015. 81 were randomly assigned to receive methylprednisolone alone and 83 to receive methylprednisolone with mycophenolate. In the intention-to-treat population at 12 weeks, responses were observed in 36 (49%) of 73 patients in the monotherapy group and 48 (63%) of 76 patients in the combination group, giving an odds ratio (OR) of 1·76 (95% CI 0·92-3·39, p=0·089). At week 24, 38 (53%) of 72 patients remaining in the monotherapy group and 53 (71%) of 75 patients remaining in the combination therapy group had responded to treatment (2·16, 1·09-4·25, p=0·026). At week 24, relapse occurred in four (11%) of 38 patients in the monotherapy group and four (8%) of 53 patients in the combination group (OR 0·71, 0·17-3·03, p=0·72). At week 36, relapse occurred in an additional three (8%) patients in the monotherapy group and two (4%) patients in the combination group (0·65, 0·12-3·44, p=0·61). At week 36, 31 (46%) of 68 patients in the monotherapy group and 49 (67%) of 73 patients in the combination group had a sustained response (OR 2·44, 1·23-4·82, p=0·011). 23 patients had 24 serious adverse events, with 11 events in ten patients in the combination group and 13 events in 13 patients in the monotherapy group. Mild and moderate (grade 1-2) drug-related adverse events occurred in 16 (20%) of 81 patients receiving monotherapy and 21 (25%) of 83 patients receiving combination therapy (p=0·48). Although no significant difference was seen in the rate of response at 12 weeks or rate of relapse at 24 and 36 weeks, post-hoc analysis suggested that addition of mycophenolate to treatment with methylprednisolone improved rate of response to therapy by 24 weeks in patients with active and moderate-to-severe Graves' orbitopathy. Novartis, Germany

R47H TREM2 variant increases risk of typical early-onset Alzheimer's disease but not of prion or frontotemporal dementia.

BACKGROUND: Rare TREM2 variants are significant risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD). METHODS: We used next generation sequencing of the whole gene (n = 700), exon 2 Sanger sequencing (n = 2634), p.R47H genotyping (n = 3518), and genome wide association study imputation (n = 13,048) to determine whether TREM2 variants are risk factors or phenotypic modifiers in patients with AD (n = 1002), frontotemporal dementia (n = 358), sporadic (n = 2500), and variant (n = 115) Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD). RESULTS: We confirm only p.R47H as a risk factor for AD (odds ratio or OR = 2.19; 95% confidence interval or CI = 1.04-4.51; P = .03). p.R47H does not significantly alter risk for frontotemporal dementia (OR = 0.81), variant or sporadic CJD (OR = 1.06 95%CI = 0.66-1.69) in our cohorts. Individuals with p.R47H associated AD (n = 12) had significantly earlier symptom onset than individuals with no TREM2 variants (n = 551) (55.2 years vs. 61.7 years, P = .02). We note that heterozygous p.R47H AD is memory led and otherwise indistinguishable from "typical" sporadic AD. CONCLUSION: We find p.R47H is a risk factor for AD, but not frontotemporal dementia or prion disease