Confidence Intervals for the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve in the Presence of Ignorable Missing Data

Receiver operating characteristic curves are widely used as a measure of accuracy of diagnostic tests and can be summarised using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Often, it is useful to construct a confidence interval for the AUC; however, because there are a number of different proposed methods to measure variance of the AUC, there are thus many different resulting methods for constructing these intervals. In this article, we compare different methods of constructing Wald‐type confidence interval in the presence of missing data where the missingness mechanism is ignorable. We find that constructing confidence intervals using multiple imputation based on logistic regression gives the most robust coverage probability and the choice of confidence interval method is less important. However, when missingness rate is less severe (e.g. less than 70%), we recommend using Newcombe\u27s Wald method for constructing confidence intervals along with multiple imputation using predictive mean matching

The predictive receiver operating characteristic curve for the joint assessment of the positive and negative predictive values

Binary test outcomes typically result from dichotomizing a continuous test variable, observable or latent. The effect of the threshold for test positivity on test sensitivity and specificity has been studied extensively in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. However, considerably less attention has been given to the study of the effect of the positivity threshold on the predictive value of a test. In this paper we present methods for the joint study of the positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of diagnostic tests. We define the predictive receiver operating characteristic (PROC) curve that consists of all possible pairs of PPV and NPV as the threshold for test positivity varies. Unlike the simple trade-off between sensitivity and specificity exhibited in the ROC curve, the PROC curve displays what is often a complex interplay between PPV and NPV as the positivity threshold changes. We study the monotonicity and other geometric properties of the PROC curve and propose summary measures for the predictive performance of tests. We also formulate and discuss regression models for the estimation of the effects of covariates

A measurement of lifetime differences in the neutral D-meson system

Using a high statistics sample of photoproduced charm particles from the FOCUS experiment at Fermilab, we compare the lifetimes of neutral D mesons decaying via D0 to K- pi+ and K- K+ to measure the lifetime differences between CP even and CP odd final states. These measurements bear on the phenomenology of D0 - D0bar mixing. If the D0 to K-pi+ is an equal mixture of CP even and CP odd eigenstates, we measure yCP = 0.0342 \pm 0.0139 \pm 0.0074.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure

Search for CP violation in D0 and D+ decays

A high statistics sample of photoproduced charm particles from the FOCUS (E831) experiment at Fermilab has been used to search for CP violation in the Cabibbo suppressed decay modes D+ to K-K+pi+, D0 to K-K+ and D0 to pi-pi+. We have measured the following CP asymmetry parameters: A_CP(K-K+pi+) = +0.006 +/- 0.011 +/- 0.005, A_CP(K-K+) = -0.001 +/- 0.022 +/- 0.015 and A_CP(pi-pi+) = +0.048 +/- 0.039 +/- 0.025 where the first error is statistical and the second error is systematic. These asymmetries are consistent with zero with smaller errors than previous measurements.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Measurements of the Sigma_c^0 and Sigma_c^{++} Mass Splittings

Using a high statistics sample of photoproduced charmed particles from the FOCUS experiment at Fermilab (FNAL-E831), we measure the mass splittings of the charmed baryons Sigma_c^0 and Sigma_c^{++}. We find M(Sigma_c^0 - Lambda_c^+) = 167.38 +/- 0.21 +/- 0.13 MeV/c^2 and M(Sigma_c^++ - Lambda_c^+) = 167.35 +/- 0.19 +/- 0.12 MeV/c^2 with samples of 362 +/- 36 and 461 +/- 39 events, respectively. We measure the isospin mass splitting M(Sigma_c^++ - Sigma_c^0) to be -0.03 +/- 0.28 +/- 0.11 Mev/c^2. The first errors are statistical and the second are systematic.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure

High-contrast imaging constraints on gas giant planet formation - The Herbig Ae/Be star opportunity

Planet formation studies are often focused on solar-type stars, implicitly considering our Sun as reference point. This approach overlooks, however, that Herbig Ae/Be stars are in some sense much better targets to study planet formation processes empirically, with their disks generally being larger, brighter and simply easier to observe across a large wavelength range. In addition, massive gas giant planets have been found on wide orbits around early type stars, triggering the question if these objects did indeed form there and, if so, by what process. In the following I briefly review what we currently know about the occurrence rate of planets around intermediate mass stars, before discussing recent results from Herbig Ae/Be stars in the context of planet formation. The main emphasis is put on spatially resolved polarized light images of potentially planet forming disks and how these images - in combination with other data - can be used to empirically constrain (parts of) the planet formation process. Of particular interest are two objects, HD100546 and HD169142, where, in addition to intriguing morphological structures in the disks, direct observational evidence for (very) young planets has been reported. I conclude with an outlook, what further progress we can expect in the very near future with the next generation of high-contrast imagers at 8-m class telescopes and their synergies with ALMA.Comment: Accepted by Astrophysics and Space Science as invited short review in special issue about Herbig Ae/Be stars; 12 pages incl. 5 figures, 2 tables and reference

Constraints on Dark Matter Annihilation in Clusters of Galaxies with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

Nearby clusters and groups of galaxies are potentially bright sources of high-energy gamma-ray emission resulting from the pair-annihilation of dark matter particles. However, no significant gamma-ray emission has been detected so far from clusters in the first 11 months of observations with the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We interpret this non-detection in terms of constraints on dark matter particle properties. In particular for leptonic annihilation final states and particle masses greater than ~200 GeV, gamma-ray emission from inverse Compton scattering of CMB photons is expected to dominate the dark matter annihilation signal from clusters, and our gamma-ray limits exclude large regions of the parameter space that would give a good fit to the recent anomalous Pamela and Fermi-LAT electron-positron measurements. We also present constraints on the annihilation of more standard dark matter candidates, such as the lightest neutralino of supersymmetric models. The constraints are particularly strong when including the fact that clusters are known to contain substructure at least on galaxy scales, increasing the expected gamma-ray flux by a factor of ~5 over a smooth-halo assumption. We also explore the effect of uncertainties in cluster dark matter density profiles, finding a systematic uncertainty in the constraints of roughly a factor of two, but similar overall conclusions. In this work, we focus on deriving limits on dark matter models; a more general consideration of the Fermi-LAT data on clusters and clusters as gamma-ray sources is forthcoming.Comment: accepted to JCAP, Corresponding authors: T.E. Jeltema and S. Profumo, minor revisions to be consistent with accepted versio

Atmospheric effects on extensive air showers observed with the Surface Detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory

Atmospheric parameters, such as pressure (P), temperature (T) and density, affect the development of extensive air showers initiated by energetic cosmic rays. We have studied the impact of atmospheric variations on extensive air showers by means of the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The rate of events shows a ~10% seasonal modulation and ~2% diurnal one. We find that the observed behaviour is explained by a model including the effects associated with the variations of pressure and density. The former affects the longitudinal development of air showers while the latter influences the Moliere radius and hence the lateral distribution of the shower particles. The model is validated with full simulations of extensive air showers using atmospheric profiles measured at the site of the Pierre Auger Observatory.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physic

Update on the correlation of the highest energy cosmic rays with nearby extragalactic matter

Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory through 31 August 2007 showed evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz'min energy threshold, \nobreak{$6\times 10^{19}$eV}. The anisotropy was measured by the fraction of arrival directions that are less than $3.1^\circ$ from the position of an active galactic nucleus within 75 Mpc (using the V\'eron-Cetty and V\'eron $12^{\rm th}$ catalog). An updated measurement of this fraction is reported here using the arrival directions of cosmic rays recorded above the same energy threshold through 31 December 2009. The number of arrival directions has increased from 27 to 69, allowing a more precise measurement. The correlating fraction is $(38^{+7}_{-6})$, compared with $21$ expected for isotropic cosmic rays. This is down from the early estimate of $(69^{+11}_{-13})$. The enlarged set of arrival directions is examined also in relation to other populations of nearby extragalactic objects: galaxies in the 2 Microns All Sky Survey and active galactic nuclei detected in hard X-rays by the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. A celestial region around the position of the radiogalaxy Cen A has the largest excess of arrival directions relative to isotropic expectations. The 2-point autocorrelation function is shown for the enlarged set of arrival directions and compared to the isotropic expectation.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physics on 31 August 201