Accurate Analysis of Quality Properties of Software with Observation-Based Markov Chain Refinement

We introduce a tool-supported method for the automated refinement of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) used to assess quality properties of component-based software. Existing research focuses on improving the efficiency of CTMC analysis and on identifying new applications for this analysis. As such, ensuring that the analysis is accurate by using CTMCs that closely model the behaviour of the analysed software has received relatively little attention. Our new method addresses this gap by refining the high-level CTMC model of a component-based software system based on observations of the execution times of its components. Our refinement method reduced analysis errors by 77–90.3% for a service-based system implemented using six public web services from three different providers, improving the accuracy of the analysis and significantly reducing the risk of invalid software engineering decisions

FACT : A Probabilistic Model Checker for Formal Verification with Confidence Intervals

We introduce FACT, a probabilistic model checker that computes confidence intervals for the evaluated properties of Markov chains with unknown transition probabilities when observations of these transitions are available. FACT is unaffected by the unquantified estimation errors generated by the use of point probability estimates, a common practice that limits the applicability of quantitative verification. As such, FACT can prevent invalid decisions in the construction and analysis of systems, and extends the applicability of quantitative verification to domains in which unknown estimation errors are unacceptable

Stochastic modeling, analysis and verification of mission-critical systems and processes

Software and business processes used in mission-critical defence applications are often characterised by stochastic behaviour. The causes for this behaviour range from unanticipated environmental changes and built-in random delays to component and communication protocol unreliability. This paper overviews the use of a stochastic modelling and analysis technique called quantitative verication to establish whether mission-critical software and business processes meet their reliability, performance and other quality-of-service requirements

Verified Synthesis of Optimal Safety Controllers for Human-Robot Collaboration

In human-robot collaboration, software-based safety controllers are used to improve operational safety, e.g., by triggering shutdown mechanisms or emergency stops to avoid accidents. Complex robotic tasks and increasingly close human-robot interaction pose new challenges to controller developers and certification authorities. Key among these challenges is the need to assure the correctness of safety controllers under explicit (and preferably weak) assumptions. To address this need, we introduce and evaluate a tool-supported approach for safety controller synthesis and deployment. The new approach focuses on human-robot collaboration in manufacturing, and is informed by the process, risk analysis, and relevant safety regulations for the target application. Controllers are selected from a design space of feasible controllers according to a set of optimality criteria, formally verified against correctness criteria, and translated into executable code and validated in a digital twin. The resulting controller can detect the occurrence of hazards, move the process into a safe state, and, in certain circumstances, return the process to an operational state from which it can resume its original task

Genome-Wide Association Study of Peripheral Artery Disease

Background: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) affects >200 million people worldwide and is associated with high mortality and morbidity. We sought to identify genomic variants associated with PAD overall and in the contexts of diabetes and smoking status. Methods: We identified genetic variants associated with PAD and then meta-analyzed with published summary statistics from the Million Veterans Program and UK Biobank to replicate their findings. Next, we ran stratified genome-wide association analysis in ever smokers, never smokers, individuals with diabetes, and individuals with no history of diabetes and corresponding interaction analyses, to identify variants that modify the risk of PAD by diabetic or smoking status. Results: We identified 5 genome-wide significant (P-associationPeer reviewe

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Multiethnic Genome-Wide Association Study of Diabetic Retinopathy Using Liability Threshold Modeling of Duration of Diabetes and Glycemic Control

Correction: Volume69, Issue6 Page1306-1306 DOI10.2337/db20-er06a Published JUN 2020To identify genetic variants associated with diabetic retinopathy (DR), we performed a large multiethnic genome-wide association study. Discovery included eight European cohorts (n = 3,246) and seven African American cohorts (n = 2,611). We meta-analyzed across cohorts using inverse-variance weighting, with and without liability threshold modeling of glycemic control and duration of diabetes. Variants with a P valuePeer reviewe

Geographical and temporal distribution of SARS-CoV-2 clades in the WHO European Region, January to June 2020

We show the distribution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) genetic clades over time and between countries and outline potential genomic surveillance objectives. We applied three genomic nomenclature systems to all sequence data from the World Health Organization European Region available until 10 July 2020. We highlight the importance of real-time sequencing and data dissemination in a pandemic situation, compare the nomenclatures and lay a foundation for future European genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2

Association between convalescent plasma treatment and mortality in COVID-19: a collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials.

Funder: laura and john arnold foundationBACKGROUND: Convalescent plasma has been widely used to treat COVID-19 and is under investigation in numerous randomized clinical trials, but results are publicly available only for a small number of trials. The objective of this study was to assess the benefits of convalescent plasma treatment compared to placebo or no treatment and all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19, using data from all available randomized clinical trials, including unpublished and ongoing trials (Open Science Framework, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/GEHFX ). METHODS: In this collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis, clinical trial registries (ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform), the Cochrane COVID-19 register, the LOVE database, and PubMed were searched until April 8, 2021. Investigators of trials registered by March 1, 2021, without published results were contacted via email. Eligible were ongoing, discontinued and completed randomized clinical trials that compared convalescent plasma with placebo or no treatment in COVID-19 patients, regardless of setting or treatment schedule. Aggregated mortality data were extracted from publications or provided by investigators of unpublished trials and combined using the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman random effects model. We investigated the contribution of unpublished trials to the overall evidence. RESULTS: A total of 16,477 patients were included in 33 trials (20 unpublished with 3190 patients, 13 published with 13,287 patients). 32 trials enrolled only hospitalized patients (including 3 with only intensive care unit patients). Risk of bias was low for 29/33 trials. Of 8495 patients who received convalescent plasma, 1997 died (23%), and of 7982 control patients, 1952 died (24%). The combined risk ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.92; 1.02) with between-study heterogeneity not beyond chance (I2 = 0%). The RECOVERY trial had 69.8% and the unpublished evidence 25.3% of the weight in the meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Convalescent plasma treatment of patients with COVID-19 did not reduce all-cause mortality. These results provide strong evidence that convalescent plasma treatment for patients with COVID-19 should not be used outside of randomized trials. Evidence synthesis from collaborations among trial investigators can inform both evidence generation and evidence application in patient care