Orangutan movement and population dynamics across human-modified landscapes: implications of policy and management

Context: Agricultural expansion is a leading cause of deforestation and habitat fragmentation globally. Policies that support biodiversity and facilitate species movement across farmland are therefore central to sustainability efforts and wildlife conservation in these human-modified landscapes. Objectives: We investigated the conservation impact of several potential management scenarios on animal populations and movement in a human-modified tropical landscape, focusing on the critically endangered Bornean orangutan, Pongo pygmaeus. Methods: We used an individual-based modelling platform to simulate population dynamics and movements across four possible landscape management scenarios for a highly modified oil palm-dominated landscape in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Results: Scenarios that maximised the retention of natural forest remnants in agricultural areas through sustainability certification standards supported stable orangutan populations. These populations were up to 45% larger than those supported under development-focused scenarios, where forest retention was not prioritised. The forest remnants served as corridors or stepping-stones, increasing annual emigration rates across the landscape, and reducing orangutan mortality by up to 11%. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that this outcome was highly contingent on minimising mortality during dispersal. Conclusions: Management that promotes maximising natural forest cover through certification, such as that promoted by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil, can maintain viable orangutan populations over the lifespan of an oil palm plantation and facilitate movement among otherwise isolated populations. However, minimising hunting and negative human–orangutan interactions, while promoting peaceful co-existence between apes and people, will be imperative to insure positive conservation outcomes

Drive counts as a method of estimating ungulate density in forests: mission impossible?

Although drive counts are frequently used to estimate the size of deer populations in forests, little is known about how counting methods or the density and social organization of the deer species concerned influence the accuracy of the estimates obtained, and hence their suitability for informing management decisions. As these issues cannot readily be examined for real populations, we conducted a series of ‘virtual experiments’ in a computer simulation model to evaluate the effects of block size, proportion of forest counted, deer density, social aggregation and spatial auto-correlation on the accuracy of drive counts. Simulated populations of red and roe deer were generated on the basis of drive count data obtained from Polish commercial forests. For both deer species, count accuracy increased with increasing density, and decreased as the degree of aggregation, either demographic or spatial, within the population increased. However, the effect of density on accuracy was substantially greater than the effect of aggregation. Although improvements in accuracy could be made by reducing the size of counting blocks for low-density, aggregated populations, these were limited. Increasing the proportion of the forest counted led to greater improvements in accuracy, but the gains were limited compared with the increase in effort required. If it is necessary to estimate the deer population with a high degree of accuracy (e.g. within 10% of the true value), drive counts are likely to be inadequate whatever the deer density. However, if a lower level of accuracy (within 20% or more) is acceptable, our study suggests that at higher deer densities (more than ca. five to seven deer/100 ha) drive counts can provide reliable information on population size

How Spatial Heterogeneity of Cover Affects Patterns of Shrub Encroachment into Mesic Grasslands

We used a multi-method approach to analyze the spatial patterns of shrubs and cover types (plant species, litter or bare soil) in grassland-shrubland ecotones. This approach allows us to assess how fine-scale spatial heterogeneity of cover types affects the patterns of Cytisus balansae shrub encroachment into mesic mountain grasslands (Catalan Pyrenees, Spain). Spatial patterns and the spatial associations between juvenile shrubs and different cover types were assessed in mesic grasslands dominated by species with different palatabilities (palatable grass Festuca nigrescens and unpalatable grass Festuca eskia). A new index, called RISES (“Relative Index of Shrub Encroachment Susceptibility”), was proposed to calculate the chances of shrub encroachment into a given grassland, combining the magnitude of the spatial associations and the surface area for each cover type. Overall, juveniles showed positive associations with palatable F. nigrescens and negative associations with unpalatable F. eskia, although these associations shifted with shrub development stage. In F. eskia grasslands, bare soil showed a low scale of pattern and positive associations with juveniles. Although the highest RISES values were found in F. nigrescens plots, the number of juvenile Cytisus was similar in both types of grasslands. However, F. nigrescens grasslands showed the greatest number of juveniles in early development stage (i.e. height<10 cm) whereas F. eskia grasslands showed the greatest number of juveniles in late development stages (i.e. height>30 cm). We concluded that in F. eskia grasslands, where establishment may be constrained by the dominant cover type, the low scale of pattern on bare soil may result in higher chances of shrub establishment and survival. In contrast, although grasslands dominated by the palatable F. nigrescens may be more susceptible to shrub establishment; current grazing rates may reduce juvenile survival

Habitat use at fine spatial scale: how does patch clustering criteria explain the use of meadows by red deer ?

Large mammalian herbivores are keystone species in different ecosystems. To mediate the effects of large mammalian herbivores on ecosystems, it is crucial to understand their habitat selection pattern. At finer scales, herbivore patch selection depends strongly on plant community traits and therefore its understanding is constrained by patch definition criteria. Our aim was to assess which criteria for patch definition best explained use of meadows by wild, free-ranging, red deer (Cervus elaphus) in a study area in Northeast Portugal. We used two clustering criteria types based on floristic composition and gross forage classes, respectively. For the floristic criteria, phytosociological approach was used to classify plant communities, and its objectivity evaluated with a mathematical clustering of the floristic relevés. Cover of dominant plant species was tested as a proxy for the phytosociological method. For the gross forage classes, the graminoids/forbs ratio and the percentage cover of legumes were used. For assessing deer relative use of meadows we used faecal accumulation rates. Patches clustered according to floristic classification better explained selection of patches by deer. Plant community classifications based on phytosociology, or proxies of this, used for characterizing meadow patches resulted useful to understand herbivore selection pattern at fine scales and thus potentially suitable to assist wildlife management decisions

Breaking Functional Connectivity into Components: A Novel Approach Using an Individual-Based Model, and First Outcomes

Landscape connectivity is a key factor determining the viability of populations in fragmented landscapes. Predicting ‘functional connectivity’, namely whether a patch or a landscape functions as connected from the perspective of a focal species, poses various challenges. First, empirical data on the movement behaviour of species is often scarce. Second, animal-landscape interactions are bound to yield complex patterns. Lastly, functional connectivity involves various components that are rarely assessed separately. We introduce the spatially explicit, individual-based model FunCon as means to distinguish between components of functional connectivity and to assess how each of them affects the sensitivity of species and communities to landscape structures. We then present the results of exploratory simulations over six landscapes of different fragmentation levels and across a range of hypothetical bird species that differ in their response to habitat edges. i) Our results demonstrate that estimations of functional connectivity depend not only on the response of species to edges (avoidance versus penetration into the matrix), the movement mode investigated (home range movements versus dispersal), and the way in which the matrix is being crossed (random walk versus gap crossing), but also on the choice of connectivity measure (in this case, the model output examined). ii) We further show a strong effect of the mortality scenario applied, indicating that movement decisions that do not fully match the mortality risks are likely to reduce connectivity and enhance sensitivity to fragmentation. iii) Despite these complexities, some consistent patterns emerged. For instance, the ranking order of landscapes in terms of functional connectivity was mostly consistent across the entire range of hypothetical species, indicating that simple landscape indices can potentially serve as valuable surrogates for functional connectivity. Yet such simplifications must be carefully evaluated in terms of the components of functional connectivity they actually predict

Dietary reference values for potassium

Scientific opinion on Dietary Reference Values for potassium

Scientific Opinion on the public health hazards to be covered by inspection of meat from farmed game

Salmonella spp. in farmed wild boar and Toxoplasma gondii in farmed deer and farmed wild boar were ranked as a high priority for meat inspection. Trichinella spp. in wild boar was ranked as low priority due to current controls, which should be continued. For chemical hazards, all substances were ranked as medium or lower potential concern. More effective control of biological hazards could be achieved using an integrated farm to chilled carcass approach, including improved food chain information (FCI) and risk-based controls. Further studies are required on Salmonella spp. in farmed wild boar and T. gondii in farmed wild boar and farmed deer. If new information confirms a high risk to public health from meat from these species, setting targets at carcass level should be considered. Palpation and incision should be omitted, as it will not detect biological hazards considered to be a high priority for meat inspection while increasing the potential spread and cross-contamination of the carcasses with Salmonella. Palpation and/or incision may be applied where abnormalities have been detected but away from the slaughter line. However the elimination of routine palpation and incision would be detrimental for detecting tuberculosis. As farmed deer and farmed wild boar can act as tuberculosis reservoirs, any reduction in the detection, due to changes in the post-mortem inspection procedures, will have consequences for the overall surveillance of tuberculosis. Monitoring programmes for chemical hazards should be more flexible and based on the risk of occurrence, taking into account FCI, which should be expanded to reflect the specific environmental conditions of the farms where the animals are reared, and the ranking of chemical substances, which should be regularly updated and include new hazards. Control programmes across the food chain, national residue control programmes, feed control and monitoring of environmental contaminants should be better integrated

Mating system induced lags in rates of range expansion for different simulated mating systems and dispersal strategies: a modelling study.

Acknowledgements: We would like to thank Justin MJ Travis for very helpful discussions early in the framing of this paper.Mismatches between current and potential species distributions are commonplace due to lags in the response of populations to changing environmental conditions. The prevailing mating system may contribute to such lags where it leads to mating failure at the range edge, but how active dispersers might mitigate these lags using social information to inform dispersal strategies warrants greater exploration. We used an individual-based model to explore how different mating systems for species that actively search for habitat can impose a filter on the ability to colonise empty, fragmented landscapes, and explored how using social information during dispersal can mitigate the lags caused by more constrained mating systems. The mate-finding requirements implemented in two-sex models consistently led to slower range expansion compared to those that were not mate limited (i.e., female only models), even when mating was polygynous. A mate-search settlement strategy reduced the proportion of unmated females at the range edge but had little impact on rate of spread. In contrast, a negative density-dependent settlement strategy resulted in much faster spread, which could be explained by a greater number of long-distance dispersal events. Our findings suggest that even low rates of mating failure at the range edge can lead to considerable lags in range expansion, though dispersal strategies that favour colonising more distant, sparsely occupied habitat patches may effectively mitigate these lags

Hugging the hedges: might agri-environment manipulations affect landscape permeability for hedgehogs?

Semi-natural agricultural habitats have declined in northern Europe since the 1950s, to the detriment of habitat connectivity and biodiversity. European agri-environmental schemes to restore them should target the habitats most likely to remedy these impacts. We employed a stochastic individual-based simulation model to predict movements of a model species, the European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus), across a series of virtual landscapes - digitised from a typical UK lowland agricultural area - in which the abundance of hedgerow, pasture fields and field margin had been manipulated according to a factorial design. The primary landscape determinant of distances that model hedgehogs travelled was the percentage of field boundaries that were hedgerow: doubling this from the status quo resulted in an additional 13% of individuals moving 500. m, 25% 1000. m, 35% 1500. m and 51% 2000. m. Trebling the percentage of hedge yielded no additional benefit over doubling it (mean additional percentage 0.6%). Doubling the landscape percentage of pastures resulted in a 1% increase in model individuals moving 500. m and 1000. m, but decreases for 1500. m and 2000. m (-2% and -4%, respectively). Increasing the percentage of hedged fields that also had field margins led to decreases of -1% to -8% in individuals moving any distance. Agri-environmental scheme options to reinstate or repair hedges that double their percentage in lowland farmland would enhance population connectivity for European hedgehogs. Further work should extend these individual-based models to representative sets of species to explore the extent to which management for one species may benefit others

Hugging the hedges: might agri-environment manipulations affect landscape permeability for hedgehogs?

Semi-natural agricultural habitats have declined in northern Europe since the 1950s, to the detriment of habitat connectivity and biodiversity. European agri-environmental schemes to restore them should target the habitats most likely to remedy these impacts. We employed a stochastic individual-based simulation model to predict movements of a model species, the European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus), across a series of virtual landscapes - digitised from a typical UK lowland agricultural area - in which the abundance of hedgerow, pasture fields and field margin had been manipulated according to a factorial design. The primary landscape determinant of distances that model hedgehogs travelled was the percentage of field boundaries that were hedgerow: doubling this from the status quo resulted in an additional 13% of individuals moving 500. m, 25% 1000. m, 35% 1500. m and 51% 2000. m. Trebling the percentage of hedge yielded no additional benefit over doubling it (mean additional percentage 0.6%). Doubling the landscape percentage of pastures resulted in a 1% increase in model individuals moving 500. m and 1000. m, but decreases for 1500. m and 2000. m (-2% and -4%, respectively). Increasing the percentage of hedged fields that also had field margins led to decreases of -1% to -8% in individuals moving any distance. Agri-environmental scheme options to reinstate or repair hedges that double their percentage in lowland farmland would enhance population connectivity for European hedgehogs. Further work should extend these individual-based models to representative sets of species to explore the extent to which management for one species may benefit others