The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis

This thesis examines the potential impacts of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the EU and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). It provides a quantitative assessment of the prospective implications for welfare, output and trade structures, resource allocation, prices and fiscal revenue. The thesis undertakes country- and sector-specific analyses using the multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) GLOBE model. The model is calibrated to the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Database- version 7 for 2004. Different scenarios are implemented in order to simulate the alternative EU-SADC EPA scenarios in addition to their WTO-compatible alternatives. The thesis aims to contribute novel insights to the ongoing debate on the EU-SADC EPAs. It provides detailed country- and sector-specific impact projections within an internally consistent modelling framework. Furthermore, it contemplates the other WTO-compatible arrangements for SADC-EU trade in the case of not signing final EPAs. The simulation results inform answers for several research questions, as follows. Who gains and who loses from the EU-SADC EPAs? Do the agreements help SADC to effectively integrate into the world economy? What type of structural change might SADC experience under the EU-SADC EPA scenarios? How significant are potential adjustment costs for the SADC members likely to be? Are the WTO-compatible alternatives preferable for SADC members compared to the EU-SADC EPAs scenario? The simulation results suggest that a comprehensive EPA scenario is welfare-improving for many SADC members. The agreements, however, do not serve as a stumbling block towards more integration for SADC members into the world markets. Overall, SADC production structures become more concentrated in export-oriented sectors. These structural changes are accompanied by a high degree of adjustment in factor markets and substantial fiscal losses. A comprehensive EPA scenario is the best option vis-à-vis the WTO-compatible alternatives for SADC non-LDCs, whereas the results for SADC LDCs are mixed

Chemical composition, antioxidant and hepatoprotective activities of methanol extracts from leaves of Terminalia bellirica and Terminalia sericea (Combretaceae)

Background Plants belonging to the genus Terminalia such as Terminalia bellirica and Terminalia sericea are used traditionally to treat several diseases and health disorders. Up to this date, the roots of Terminalia sericea and the fruits of Terminalia bellirica are the mostly studied plant parts. The phytochemical composition and the biological activities of the leaves of both species are not well identified so far. Methods The secondary metabolites of Terminalia bellirica and Terminalia sericea leaves were identified using HPLC-PDA-MS/MS. The antioxidant activities of the leaves extracts were determined by DPPH and FRAP assays. The hepatoprotective potential was evaluated in rats with D-galactosamine induced liver damage. The effect of the extracts on the expression of the anti-apoptotic marker Bcl-2 was measured in an immunohistochemical study. The most abundant compounds identified in the studied extracts were docked into Bcl-2: Bim (BH3) interaction surface using molecular operating environment software. Results A total of 85 secondary metabolites were identified in the leaf extracts of both species. Ellagitannins such as corilagin, chebulagic acid, galloylpunicalagin, and digalloyl-hexahydroxydiphenoyl-hexoside were found to be the major components in Terminalia bellirica whereas flavonoid glycosides including quercetin rutinoside and quercetin galloyl-glucoside were highly abundant in Terminalia sericea. The studied extracts exhibited pronounced antioxidant activities, moderate anti-apoptotic and hepatoprotective potential. In silico docking experiments revealed that the compounds abundant in the extracts were able to bind to Bcl-2: Bim (BH3) interaction surface with an appreciable binding free energy. Discussion The antioxidant and hepatoprotective activities exhibited by the studied extracts might be attributed to the high content of the polyphenols. The anti-apoptotic activity could be due to the interference with the apoptotic pathway mediated by Bcl-2: Bim interaction. These findings support the medicinal relevance of Terminalia bellirica and Terminalia sericea and provide a rational base for their utilization in folk medicine

Detection of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever cases in a severe undifferentiated febrile illness outbreak in the Federal Republic of Sudan: A retrospective epidemiological and diagnostic cohort study

BACKGROUND: Undifferentiated febrile illness (UFI) is one of the most common reasons for people seeking healthcare in low-income countries. While illness and death due to specific infections such as malaria are often well-quantified, others are frequently uncounted and their impact underappreciated. A number of high consequence infectious diseases, including Ebola virus, are endemic or epidemic in the Federal Republic of Sudan which has experienced at least 12 UFI outbreaks, frequently associated with haemorrhage and high case fatality rates (CFR), since 2012. One of these occurred in Darfur in 2015/2016 with 594 cases and 108 deaths (CFR 18.2%). The aetiology of these outbreaks remains unknown. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We report a retrospective cohort study of the 2015/2016 Darfur outbreak, using a subset of 65 of 263 outbreak samples received by the National Public Health Laboratory which met selection criteria of sufficient sample volume and epidemiological data. Clinical features included fever (95.8%), bleeding (95.7%), headache (51.6%) and arthralgia (42.2%). No epidemiological patterns indicative of person-to-person transmission or health-worker cases were reported. Samples were tested at the Public Health England Rare and Imported Pathogens Laboratory using a bespoke panel of likely pathogens including haemorrhagic fever viruses, arboviruses and Rickettsia, Leptospira and Borrelia spp. Seven (11%) were positive for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) by real-time reverse transcription PCR. The remaining samples tested negative on all assays. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: CCHFV is an important cause of fever and haemorrhage in Darfur, but not the sole major source of UFI outbreaks in Sudan. Prospective studies are needed to explore other aetiologies, including novel pathogens. The presence of CCHFV has critical infection, prevention and control as well as clinical implications for future response. Our study reinforces the need to boost surveillance, lab and investigative capacity to underpin effective response, and for local and international health security

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Measuring of Gastric Emptying in Egyptian Pediatric Patients with Portal Hypertension by Using Real-time Ultrasound

Background/Aim: Among the various methods for evaluating gastric emptying, the real-time ultrasound is safe, does not require intubation, or rely on either radiologic or radionuclide technique. The aim of our work was to measure the gastric emptying in pediatric patients with portal hypertension by using the real-time ultrasound. Patients and Methods: Forty patients with portal hypertension with mean age 7 ± 2.8 years and 20 healthy children as a control group underwent gastric emptying study by using real-time ultrasound. The cross-sectional area of the gastric antrum was measured in the fasting state and then each subject was allowed to drink tap water then calculated by using formula area (π longitudinal Χ anteroposterior diameter/4). The intragastric volume was assumed to be directly proportional to the cross-sectional area of the antrum. Results: The mean gastric emptying half-time volume was significantly delayed in portal hypertension patients (40 ± 6.8 min) compared with the control subjects (27.1 ± 3.6) min (P<0.05). Patients with extrahepatic portal vein obstruction had significant delayed gastric emptying in comparison to patients with portal hypertension due to other etiologies (36.14 ± 4.9 vs 44.41 ± 6.04 min; P<0.01). Conclusion: Ultrasound is a noninvasive and a reliable method for measuring gastric emptying in pediatric patients. Gastric emptying was significantly delayed in patients with portal hypertension. Etiology of portal hypertension may influence gastric emptying time in patients with chronic liver disease