A sensitivity analysis of a gonorrhoea dynamics and control model

We formulate and analyse a robust mathematical model of the dynamics of gonorrhoea incorporating passive immunity and control. Our results show that the disease-free and endemic equilibria of the model are both locally and globally asymptotically stable. A sensitivity analysis of the model shows that the dynamics of the model is variable and dependent on waning rate, control parameters and interaction of the latent and infected classes. In particular, the lower the waning rate, the more the exponential decrease in the passive immunity but the susceptible population increases to the equilibrium and wanes asymptotically due to the presence of the control parameters and restricted interaction of the latent and infected classes.Comment: Journal of Mathematical and Computational Science, 202

Unusual complication of ventriculoperitoneal shunt

Ventriculoperitoneal shunt (VPS) is the conventional method of managing hydrocephalus until recently that endoscopic third ventriculostomy is becoming popular. The major disadvantage of VPS is the fact that it constitutes a foreign body and prone to complications such as mechanical blockage, shunt infection, shunt migration and rarely shunt protrusion. Shunt extrusion through the vagina and anus are rare but have been documented. We present a rare case of shunt migrating through the external inguinal ring into the scrotal sac in a patient

Prevalence of surgically correctable conditions among children in a mixed urban-rural community in Nigeria using the SOSAS survey tool:Implications for paediatric surgical capacity-building

BackgroundIn many low- and middle-income countries, data on the prevalence of surgical diseases have been derived primarily from hospital-based studies, which may lead to an underestimation of disease burden within the community. Community-based prevalence studies may provide better estimates of surgical need to enable proper resource allocation and prioritization of needs. This study aims to assess the prevalence of common surgical conditions among children in a diverse rural and urban population in Nigeria.MethodsDescriptive cross-sectional, community-based study to determine the prevalence of congenital and acquired surgical conditions among children in a diverse rural-urban area of Nigeria was conducted. Households, defined as one or more persons 'who eat from the same pot' or slept under the same roof the night before the interview, were randomized for inclusion in the study. Data was collected using an adapted and modified version of the interviewer-administered questionnaire-Surgeons OverSeas Assessment of Surgical Need (SOSAS) survey tool and analysed using the REDCap web-based analytic application.Main resultsEight-hundred-and-fifty-six households were surveyed, comprising 1,883 children. Eighty-one conditions were identified, the most common being umbilical hernias (20), inguinal hernias (13), and wound injuries to the extremities (9). The prevalence per 10,000 children was 85 for umbilical hernias (95% CI: 47, 123), and 61 for inguinal hernias (95% CI: 34, 88). The prevalence of hydroceles and undescended testes was comparable at 22 and 26 per 10,000 children, respectively. Children with surgical conditions had similar sociodemographic characteristics to healthy children in the study population.ConclusionThe most common congenital surgical conditions in our setting were umbilical hernias, while injuries were the most common acquired conditions. From our study, it is estimated that there will be about 2.9 million children with surgically correctable conditions in the nation. This suggests an acute need for training more paediatric surgeons

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Vasodilator factors in the systemic and local adaptations to pregnancy

We postulate that an orchestrated network composed of various vasodilatory systems participates in the systemic and local hemodynamic adaptations in pregnancy. The temporal patterns of increase in the circulating and urinary levels of five vasodilator factors/systems, prostacyclin, nitric oxide, kallikrein, angiotensin-(1–7) and VEGF, in normal pregnant women and animals, as well as the changes observed in preeclamptic pregnancies support their functional role in maintaining normotension by opposing the vasoconstrictor systems. In addition, the expression of these vasodilators in the different trophoblastic subtypes in various species supports their role in the transformation of the uterine arteries. Moreover, their expression in the fetal endothelium and in the syncytiotrophoblast in humans, rats and guinea-pigs, favour their participation in maintaining the uteroplacental circulation. The findings that sustain the functional associations of the various vasodilators, and their participation by endocrine, paracrine and autocrine regulation of the systemic and local vasoactive changes of pregnancy are abundant and compelling. However, further elucidation of the role of the various players is hampered by methodological problems. Among these difficulties is the complexity of the interactions between the different factors, the likelihood that experimental alterations induced in one system may be compensated by the other players of the network, and the possibility that data obtained by manipulating single factors in vitro or in animal studies may be difficult to translate to the human. In addition, the impossibility of sampling the uteroplacental interface along normal pregnancy precludes obtaining longitudinal profiles of the various players. Nevertheless, the possibility of improving maternal blood pressure regulation, trophoblast invasion and uteroplacental flow by enhancing vasodilation (e.g. L-arginine, NO donors, VEGF transfection) deserves unravelling the intricate association of vasoactive factors and the systemic and local adaptations to pregnancy

Laparoscopy in management of appendicitis in high-, middle-, and low-income countries: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. RESULTS: 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but infrequent in low-HDI (41/507, 8.1%) and middle-HDI (132/1540, 8.6%) groups. After accounting for case-mix, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71, p < 0.001) and SSIs (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.14-0.33, p < 0.001). In propensity-score matched groups within low-/middle-HDI countries, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.23 95% CI 0.11-0.44) and SSI (OR 0.21 95% CI 0.09-0.45). CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach is associated with better outcomes and availability appears to differ by country HDI. Despite the profound clinical, operational, and financial barriers to its widespread introduction, laparoscopy could significantly improve outcomes for patients in low-resource environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02179112

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background: There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low-and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods: Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results: Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion: For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Twelve-month observational study of children with cancer in 41 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction Childhood cancer is a leading cause of death. It is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted childhood cancer mortality. In this study, we aimed to establish all-cause mortality rates for childhood cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic and determine the factors associated with mortality. Methods Prospective cohort study in 109 institutions in 41 countries. Inclusion criteria: children &lt;18 years who were newly diagnosed with or undergoing active treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, retinoblastoma, Wilms tumour, glioma, osteosarcoma, Ewing sarcoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, medulloblastoma and neuroblastoma. Of 2327 cases, 2118 patients were included in the study. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 30 days, 90 days and 12 months. Results All-cause mortality was 3.4% (n=71/2084) at 30-day follow-up, 5.7% (n=113/1969) at 90-day follow-up and 13.0% (n=206/1581) at 12-month follow-up. The median time from diagnosis to multidisciplinary team (MDT) plan was longest in low-income countries (7 days, IQR 3-11). Multivariable analysis revealed several factors associated with 12-month mortality, including low-income (OR 6.99 (95% CI 2.49 to 19.68); p&lt;0.001), lower middle income (OR 3.32 (95% CI 1.96 to 5.61); p&lt;0.001) and upper middle income (OR 3.49 (95% CI 2.02 to 6.03); p&lt;0.001) country status and chemotherapy (OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.86); p=0.008) and immunotherapy (OR 0.27 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.91); p=0.035) within 30 days from MDT plan. Multivariable analysis revealed laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR 5.33 (95% CI 1.19 to 23.84); p=0.029) was associated with 30-day mortality. Conclusions Children with cancer are more likely to die within 30 days if infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, timely treatment reduced odds of death. This report provides crucial information to balance the benefits of providing anticancer therapy against the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children with cancer

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe