Reviews and syntheses: Changing ecosystem influences on soil thermal regimes in northern high-latitude permafrost regions

Soils in Arctic and boreal ecosystems store twice as much carbon as the atmosphere, a portion of which may be released as high-latitude soils warm. Some of the uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the permafrost–climate feedback stems from complex interactions between ecosystem properties and soil thermal dynamics. Terrestrial ecosystems fundamentally regulate the response of permafrost to climate change by influencing surface energy partitioning and the thermal properties of soil itself. Here we review how Arctic and boreal ecosystem processes influence thermal dynamics in permafrost soil and how these linkages may evolve in response to climate change. While many of the ecosystem characteristics and processes affecting soil thermal dynamics have been examined individually (e.g., vegetation, soil moisture, and soil structure), interactions among these processes are less understood. Changes in ecosystem type and vegetation characteristics will alter spatial patterns of interactions between climate and permafrost. In addition to shrub expansion, other vegetation responses to changes in climate and rapidly changing disturbance regimes will affect ecosystem surface energy partitioning in ways that are important for permafrost. Lastly, changes in vegetation and ecosystem distribution will lead to regional and global biophysical and biogeochemical climate feedbacks that may compound or offset local impacts on permafrost soils. Consequently, accurate prediction of the permafrost carbon climate feedback will require detailed understanding of changes in terrestrial ecosystem distribution and function, which depend on the net effects of multiple feedback processes operating across scales in space and time

Warming shortens flowering seasons of tundra plant communities

Advancing phenology is one of the most visible effects of climate change on plant communities, and has been especially pronounced in temperature-limited tundra ecosystems. However, phenological responses have been shown to differ greatly between species, with some species shifting phenology more than others. We analysed a database of 42,689 tundra plant phenological observations to show that warmer temperatures are leading to a contraction of community-level flowering seasons in tundra ecosystems due to a greater advancement in the flowering times of late-flowering species than early-flowering species. Shorter flowering seasons with a changing climate have the potential to alter trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems. Interestingly, these findings differ from those of warmer ecosystems, where early-flowering species have been found to be more sensitive to temperature change, suggesting that community-level phenological responses to warming can vary greatly between biomes

Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced

Transverse-momentum and pseudorapidity distributions of charged hadrons in pp collisions at √s=0.9 and 2.36 TeV

Measurements of inclusive charged-hadron transverse-momentum and pseudorapidity distributions are presented for proton-proton collisions at root s = 0.9 and 2.36 TeV. The data were collected with the CMS detector during the LHC commissioning in December 2009. For non-single-diffractive interactions, the average charged-hadron transverse momentum is measured to be 0.46 +/- 0.01 (stat.) +/- 0.01 (syst.) GeV/c at 0.9 TeV and 0.50 +/- 0.01 (stat.) +/- 0.01 (syst.) GeV/c at 2.36 TeV, for pseudorapidities between -2.4 and +2.4. At these energies, the measured pseudorapidity densities in the central region, dN(ch)/d eta vertical bar(vertical bar eta vertical bar and pp collisions. The results at 2.36 TeV represent the highest-energy measurements at a particle collider to date

A new general glucose homeostatic model using a proportional-integral-derivative controller

The glucose-insulin system is a challenging process to model due to the feedback mechanisms present, hence the implementation of a model-based approach to the system is an on-going and challenging research area. A new approach is proposed here which provides an effective way of characterising glycaemic regulation. The resulting model is built on the premise that there are three phases of insulin secretion, similar to those seen in a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) type controller used in engineering control problems. The model relates these three phases to a biological understanding of the system, as well as the logical premise that the homeostatic mechanisms will maintain very tight control of the system. It includes states for insulin, glucose, insulin action and a state to simulate an integral function of glucose. Structural identifiability analysis was performed on the model to determine whether a unique set of parameter values could be identified from the available observations, which should permit meaningful conclusions to be drawn from parameter estimation. Although two parameters - glucose production rate and the proportional control coefficient - were found to be unidentifiable, the former is not a concern as this is known to be impossible to measure without a tracer experiment, and the latter can be easily estimated from other means. Subsequent parameter estimation using Intravenous Glucose Tolerance Test (IVGTT) and hyperglycaemic clamp data was performed and subsequent model simulations have shown good agreement with respect to these real data

Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems

Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage-a negative climate change feedback. Few studies partitioning ecosystem respiration examine decadal warming effects or compare responses among ecosystems. Here, we first examined how 11 years of warming during different seasons affected autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a bryophyte-dominated peatland in Abisko, Sweden. We used natural abundance radiocarbon to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic respiration, associated with production, and heterotrophic decomposition. Summertime warming decreased the age of carbon respired by the ecosystem due to increased proportional contributions from autotrophic and young soil respiration and decreased proportional contributions from old soil. Summertime warming's large effect was due to not only warmer air temperatures during the growing season, but also to warmer deep soils year-round. Second, we compared ecosystem respiration responses between two contrasting ecosystems, the Abisko peatland and a tussock-dominated tundra in Healy, Alaska. Each ecosystem had two different timescales of warming (<5 years and over a decade). Despite the Abisko peatland having greater ecosystem respiration and larger contributions from heterotrophic respiration than the Healy tundra, both systems responded consistently to short- and long-term warming with increased respiration, increased autotrophic contributions to ecosystem respiration, and increased ratios of autotrophic to heterotrophic respiration. We did not detect an increase in old soil carbon losses with warming at either site. If increased autotrophic respiration is balanced by increased primary production, as is the case in the Healy tundra, warming will not cause these ecosystems to become growing season carbon sources. Warming instead causes a persistent shift from heterotrophic to more autotrophic control of the growing season carbon cycle in these carbon-rich permafrost ecosystems

Widespread deepening of the active layer in northern permafrost regions from 2003 to 2020

The changing thermal state of permafrost is an important indicator of climate change in northern high latitude ecosystems. The seasonally thawed soil active layer thickness (ALT) overlying permafrost may be deepening as a consequence of enhanced polar warming and widespread permafrost thaw in northern permafrost regions (NPRs). The associated increase in ALT may have cascading effects on ecological and hydrological processes that impact climate feedback. However, past NPR studies have only provided a limited understanding of the spatially continuous patterns and trends of ALT due to a lack of long-term high spatial resolution ALT data across the NPR. Using a suite of observational biophysical variables and machine learning (ML) techniques trained with available in situ ALT network measurements (n = 2966 site-years), we produced annual estimates of ALT at 1 km resolution over the NPR from 2003 to 2020. Our ML-derived ALT dataset showed high accuracy (R2 = 0.97) and low bias when compared with in situ ALT observations. We found the ALT distribution to be most strongly affected by local soil properties, followed by topographic elevation and land surface temperatures. Pair-wise site-level evaluation between our data-driven ALT with Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring data indicated that about 80% of sites had a deepening ALT trend from 2003 to 2020. Based on our long-term gridded ALT data, about 65% of the NPR showed a deepening ALT trend, while the entire NPR showed a mean deepening trend of 0.11 ± 0.35 cm yr−1 [25%–75% quantile: (−0.035, 0.204) cm yr−1]. The estimated ALT trends were also sensitive to fire disturbance. Our new gridded ALT product provides an observationally constrained, updated understanding of the progression of thawing and the thermal state of permafrost in the NPR, as well as the underlying environmental drivers of these trends