Bottom mixed layer oxygen dynamics in the Celtic Sea

The seasonally stratified continental shelf seas are highly productive, economically important environments which are under considerable pressure from human activity. Global dissolved oxygen concentrations have shown rapid reductions in response to anthropogenic forcing since at least the middle of the twentieth century. Oxygen consumption is at the same time linked to the cycling of atmospheric carbon, with oxygen being a proxy for carbon remineralisation and the release of CO2. In the seasonally stratified seas the bottom mixed layer (BML) is partially isolated from the atmosphere and is thus controlled by interplay between oxygen consumption processes, vertical and horizontal advection. Oxygen consumption rates can be both spatially and temporally dynamic, but these dynamics are often missed with incubation based techniques. Here we adopt a Bayesian approach to determining total BML oxygen consumption rates from a high resolution oxygen time-series. This incorporates both our knowledge and our uncertainty of the various processes which control the oxygen inventory. Total BML rates integrate both processes in the water column and at the sediment interface. These observations span the stratified period of the Celtic Sea and across both sandy and muddy sediment types. We show how horizontal advection, tidal forcing and vertical mixing together control the bottom mixed layer oxygen concentrations at various times over the stratified period. Our muddy-sand site shows cyclic spring-neap mediated changes in oxygen consumption driven by the frequent resuspension or ventilation of the seabed. We see evidence for prolonged periods of increased vertical mixing which provide the ventilation necessary to support the high rates of consumption observed

Half‐Cauchy and Power Cauchy Distributions: Ordinary Differential Equations

In this chapter, homogenous ordinary differential equations (ODES) of different orders were obtained for the probability density function, quantile function, survival function inverse survival function, hazard function and reversed hazard functions of half‐Cauchy and power Cauchy distributions. This is possible since the aforementioned probability functions are differentiable. Differentiation and modified product rule were used to obtain the required ordinary differential equations, whose solutions are the respective probability functions. The different conditions necessary for the existence of the ODEs were obtained and it is almost in consistent with the support that defined the various probability functions considered. The parameters that defined each distribution greatly affect the nature of the ODEs obtained. This method provides new ways of classifying and approximating other probability distributions apart from half‐Cauchy and power Cauchy distributions considered in this chapter. In addition, the result of the quantile function can be compared with quantile approximation using the quantile mechanics

Immunotoxins and Anticancer Drug Conjugate Assemblies: The Role of the Linkage between Components

Immunotoxins and antibody-drug conjugates are protein-based drugs combining a target-specific binding domain with a cytotoxic domain. Such compounds are potentially therapeutic against diseases including cancer, and several clinical trials have shown encouraging results. Although the targeted elimination of malignant cells is an elegant concept, there are numerous practical challenges that limit conjugates’ therapeutic use, including inefficient cellular uptake, low cytotoxicity, and off-target effects. During the preparation of immunoconjugates by chemical synthesis, the choice of the hinge component joining the two building blocks is of paramount importance: the conjugate must remain stable in vivo but must afford efficient release of the toxic moiety when the target is reached. Vast efforts have been made, and the present article reviews strategies employed in developing immunoconjugates, focusing on the evolution of chemical linkers

A Bayesian hierarchical approach for spatial analysis of climate model bias in multi-model ensembles

Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models are key tools to investigate climate dynamics and the climatic response to external forcings, to predict climate evolution and to generate future climate projections. Current general circulation models are, however, undisputedly affected by substantial systematic errors in their outputs compared to observations. The assessment of these so-called biases, both individually and collectively, is crucial for the models’ evaluation prior to their predictive use. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for a unified assessment of spatially referenced climate model biases in a multi-model framework. A key feature of our approach is that the model quantifies an overall common bias that is obtained by synthesizing bias across the different climate models in the ensemble, further determining the contribution of each model to the overall bias. Moreover, we determine model-specific individual bias components by characterizing them as non-stationary spatial fields. The approach is illustrated based on the case of near-surface air temperature bias in the tropical Atlantic and bordering regions from a multi-model ensemble of historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The results demonstrate the improved quantification of the bias and interpretative advantages allowed by the posterior distributions derived from the proposed Bayesian hierarchical framework, whose generality favors its broader application within climate model assessment

Chlorhexidine mouthrinse as an adjunctive treatment for gingival health

BACKGROUND: Dental plaque associated gingivitis is a reversible inflammatory condition caused by accumulation and persistence of microbial biofilms (dental plaque) on the teeth. It is characterised by redness and swelling of the gingivae (gums) and a tendency for the gingivae to bleed easily. In susceptible individuals, gingivitis may lead to periodontitis and loss of the soft tissue and bony support for the tooth. It is thought that chlorhexidine mouthrinse may reduce the build-up of plaque thereby reducing gingivitis. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of chlorhexidine mouthrinse used as an adjunct to mechanical oral hygiene procedures for the control of gingivitis and plaque compared to mechanical oral hygiene procedures alone or mechanical oral hygiene procedures plus placebo/control mouthrinse. Mechanical oral hygiene procedures were toothbrushing with/without the use of dental floss or interdental cleaning aids and could include professional tooth cleaning/periodontal treatment.To determine whether the effect of chlorhexidine mouthrinse is influenced by chlorhexidine concentration, or frequency of rinsing (once/day versus twice/day).To report and describe any adverse effects associated with chlorhexidine mouthrinse use from included trials. SEARCH METHODS: Cochrane Oral Health's Information Specialist searched the following databases: Cochrane Oral Health's Trials Register (to 28 September 2016); the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2016, Issue 8) in the Cochrane Library (searched 28 September 2016); MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to 28 September 2016); Embase Ovid (1980 to 28 September 2016); and CINAHL EBSCO (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature; 1937 to 28 September 2016). We searched ClinicalTrials.gov and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform for ongoing trials. No restrictions were placed on the language or date of publication when searching the electronic databases. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials assessing the effects of chlorhexidine mouthrinse used as an adjunct to mechanical oral hygiene procedures for at least 4 weeks on gingivitis in children and adults. Mechanical oral hygiene procedures were toothbrushing with/without use of dental floss or interdental cleaning aids and could include professional tooth cleaning/periodontal treatment. We included trials where participants had gingivitis or periodontitis, where participants were healthy and where some or all participants had medical conditions or special care needs. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened the search results extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of the included studies. We attempted to contact study authors for missing data or clarification where feasible. For continuous outcomes, we used means and standard deviations to obtain the mean difference (MD) and 95% confidence interval (CI). We combined MDs where studies used the same scale and standardised mean differences (SMDs) where studies used different scales. For dichotomous outcomes, we reported risk ratios (RR) and 95% CIs. Due to anticipated heterogeneity we used random-effects models for all meta-analyses. MAIN RESULTS: We included 51 studies that analysed a total of 5345 participants. One study was assessed as being at unclear risk of bias, with the remaining 50 being at high risk of bias, however, this did not affect the quality assessments for gingivitis and plaque as we believe that further research is very unlikely to change our confidence in the estimate of effect. Gingivitis After 4 to 6 weeks of use, chlorhexidine mouthrinse reduced gingivitis (Gingival Index (GI) 0 to 3 scale) by 0.21 (95% CI 0.11 to 0.31) compared to placebo, control or no mouthrinse (10 trials, 805 participants with mild gingival inflammation (mean score 1 on the GI scale) analysed, high-quality evidence). A similar effect size was found for reducing gingivitis at 6 months. There were insufficient data to determine the reduction in gingivitis associated with chlorhexidine mouthrinse use in individuals with mean GI scores of 1.1 to 3 (moderate or severe levels of gingival inflammation). Plaque Plaque was measured by different indices and the SMD at 4 to 6 weeks was 1.45 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.90) standard deviations lower in the chlorhexidine group (12 trials, 950 participants analysed, high-quality evidence), indicating a large reduction in plaque. A similar large reduction was found for chlorhexidine mouthrinse use at 6 months. Extrinsic tooth staining There was a large increase in extrinsic tooth staining in participants using chlorhexidine mouthrinse at 4 to 6 weeks. The SMD was 1.07 (95% CI 0.80 to 1.34) standard deviations higher (eight trials, 415 participants analysed, moderate-quality evidence) in the chlorhexidine mouthrinse group. There was also a large increase in extrinsic tooth staining in participants using chlorhexidine mouthrinse at 7 to 12 weeks and 6 months. Calculus Results for the effect of chlorhexidine mouthrinse on calculus formation were inconclusive. Effect of concentration and frequency of rinsing There were insufficient data to determine whether there was a difference in effect for either chlorhexidine concentration or frequency of rinsing. Other adverse effects The adverse effects most commonly reported in the included studies were taste disturbance/alteration (reported in 11 studies), effects on the oral mucosa including soreness, irritation, mild desquamation and mucosal ulceration/erosions (reported in 13 studies) and a general burning sensation or a burning tongue or both (reported in nine studies). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is high-quality evidence from studies that reported the Löe and Silness Gingival Index of a reduction in gingivitis in individuals with mild gingival inflammation on average (mean score of 1 on the 0 to 3 GI scale) that was not considered to be clinically relevant. There is high-quality evidence of a large reduction in dental plaque with chlorhexidine mouthrinse used as an adjunct to mechanical oral hygiene procedures for 4 to 6 weeks and 6 months. There is no evidence that one concentration of chlorhexidine rinse is more effective than another. There is insufficient evidence to determine the reduction in gingivitis associated with chlorhexidine mouthrinse use in individuals with mean GI scores of 1.1 to 3 indicating moderate or severe levels of gingival inflammation. Rinsing with chlorhexidine mouthrinse for 4 weeks or longer causes extrinsic tooth staining. In addition, other adverse effects such as calculus build up, transient taste disturbance and effects on the oral mucosa were reported in the included studies

The implied volatility of a sports game

In this paper we provide a method for calculating the implied volatility of the outcome of a sports game. We base our analysis on Stern's stochastic model for the evolution of sports scores (Stern, H. S. 1994. "A Brownian Motion Model for the Progress of Sports Scores." Journal of the American Statistical Association 89:1128-1134.). Using bettors' point spread and moneyline odds, we extend the model to calculate the market-implied volatility of the game's score. The model can also be used to calculate the time-varying implied volatility during the game using inputs from real-time, online betting and to identify betting opportunities. We illustrate our methodology on data from Super Bowl XLVII between the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers and show how the market-implied volatility of the outcome varied as the game progressed

The implied volatility of a sports game

In this paper we provide a method for calculating the implied volatility of the outcome of a sports game. We base our analysis on Stern's stochastic model for the evolution of sports scores (Stern, H. S. 1994. "A Brownian Motion Model for the Progress of Sports Scores." Journal of the American Statistical Association 89:1128-1134.). Using bettors' point spread and moneyline odds, we extend the model to calculate the market-implied volatility of the game's score. The model can also be used to calculate the time-varying implied volatility during the game using inputs from real-time, online betting and to identify betting opportunities. We illustrate our methodology on data from Super Bowl XLVII between the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers and show how the market-implied volatility of the outcome varied as the game progressed