Physical activity in pregnancy prevents gestational diabetes: A meta-analysis

AimsThe effectiveness of physical activity (PA) programs for prevention of gestational diabetes (GDM) lacks conclusive evidence. The aim of this study was to generate clear evidence regarding the effectiveness of physical activity programs in GDM prevention to guide clinical practice. MethodsPubMed/Medline, ISI Web of Science, Scopus, and EMBASE were searched to identify the randomized trials (RCTs) published until June 2019. Randomised controlled trials enrolling women at high risk before the 20th week of gestation comparing the effect of PA interventions with usual care for prevention of GDM were retrieved. Data obtained were synthesised using a bias-adjusted model of meta-analysis. ResultsA total of 1467 adult women in 11 eligible trials were included. The risk of GDM was significantly lower with PA, but only when it was delivered in the healthcare facility (RR 0.53; 95% CI 0.38–0.74). The number needed to treat with PA in pregnancy (compared to usual care) to prevent one GDM event was 18 (95% CI 14 – 29). The overall effect of PA interventions regardless of location of the intervention was RR 0.69 (95% CI 0.51 – 0.94). ConclusionsThis study provides evidence that in-facility physical activity programs started before the 20th week of gestation can significantly decrease the incidence of GDM among women at high risk

A meta-review of meta-analyses and an updated meta-analysis on the efficacy of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine in treating COVID19 infection

Objective: To synthesize the findings presented in systematic reviews and meta-analyses as well as to update the evidence using a meta-analysis in evaluating the efficacy and safety of CQ and HCQ with or without Azithromycin for the treatment of COVID19 infection.Methods: The design of this meta-review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Overviews of Systematic Reviews including harms checklist (PRIO-harms). A comprehensive search included several electronic databases in identifying all systematic reviews and metaanalyses as well as experimental studies which investigated the efficacy and safety of CQ, HCQ with or without antibiotics as COVID19 treatment. Findings from the systematic reviews and meta-analyses were reported using a structured summary including tables and forest plots. The updated meta-analysis of experimental studies was carried out using the distributional assumption-free quality effects model. Risk of bias was assessed using the Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) tool for reviews and the MethodologicAl STandard for Epidemiological Research (MASTER) scale for the experimental studies. The main outcome for both the meta-review and the updated meta-analysis was mortality. Secondary outcomes included transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU) or mechanical ventilation, worsening of illness, viral clearance and the occurrence of adverse events. Results: A total of 13 reviews with 40 primary studies comprising 113,000 participants were included. Most of the primary studies were observational (n=27) and the rest were experimental studies. Two meta-analyses reported a high risk of mortality with similar ORs of 2.5 for HCQ with Azithromycin. However, four other meta-analyses reported contradictory results with two reporting a high risk of mortality and the other two reporting no significant association between HCQ with mortality. Most reviews reported that HCQ with or without Azithromycin had no significant effect on virological cure, disease exacerbation or the risk of transfer to the ICU, need for intubation or mechanical ventilation. After exclusion of studies that did not meet the eligibility criteria, the updated meta-analysis contained eight experimental studies (7 RCTs and 1 quasiexperimental trial), with a total of 5279 participants of whom 1856 were on either CQ/HCQ or combined with Azithromycin. CQ/HCQ with or without Azithromycin was significantly associated with a higher risk of adverse events. HCQ was not effective in reducing mortality transfer to the ICU, intubation or need for mechanical ventilation virological cure (RR 1.0, 95%CI 0.9-1.2, I2 =55%, n=5 studies) nor disease exacerbation (RR 1.2, 95%CI 0.3-5.0, I2 =29%, n=3 studies). Conclusion: There is conclusive evidence that CQ and HCQ, with or without Azithromycin are not effective in treating COVID-19 or its exacerbation

Association between Multimorbidity and COVID-19 Mortality in Qatar: A Cross-Sectional Study

This study assessed the association between multimorbidity and mortality from COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa region, where such data are scarce. We conducted a cross-sectional study using data of all cases with COVID-19 reported to the Ministry of Public Health of Qatar from March to September 2020. Data on pre-existing comorbidities were collected using a questionnaire and multimorbidity was defined as having at least two comorbidities. Proportions of deaths were compared by comorbidity and multimorbidity status and multivariable logistic regression analyses were carried out. A total of 92,426 participants with a mean age of 37.0 years (SD 11.0) were included. Mortality due to COVID-19 was associated with gastrointestinal diseases (aOR 3.1, 95% CI 1.16–8.30), respiratory diseases (aOR 2.9, 95% CI 1.57–5.26), neurological diseases (aOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.19–5.54), diabetes (aOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.24–2.61), and CVD (aOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.03–2.22). COVID-19 mortality was strongly associated with increasing multimorbidity; one comorbidity (aOR 2.0, 95% CI 1.28–3.12), two comorbidities (aOR 2.8, 95% CI 1.79–4.38), three comorbidities (aOR 6.0, 95% 3.34–10.86) and four or more comorbidities (aOR 4.15, 95% 1.3–12.88). This study demonstrates a strong association between COVID-19 mortality and multimorbidity in Qatar

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

The odds ratio is “portable” but not the relative risk: Time to do away with the log link in binomial regression

Objectives: In a recent paper we suggest that the relative risk (RR) be replaced with the odds ratio (OR) as the effect measure of choice in clinical epidemiology. In response, Chu, and colleagues raise several points that argue for the status quo. In this paper, we respond to their response. Study designs and Settings: We use the same examples given by Chu and colleagues to recompute estimates of effect and demonstrate the problem with the RR. Results: We reaffirm the following findings: a) the OR and RR measure different things and their numerical difference is only important if misinterpreted b) this potential misinterpretation is a trivial issue compared to the lack of portability of the RR c) the same examples reaffirm non-portability of the RR and demonstrate how misleading the results might be in contrast to the OR, which is independent of the baseline risk d) the concept of non-collapsibility for the OR should be expected in the presence of a non-confounding risk factor, and is not a bias e) the log link in regression models that generate RRs as well as the use of RRs in meta-analysis is shown to be problematic using the same examples. Conclusion: The OR should replace the RR in clinical research and meta-analyses though there should be conversion of the end product into ratios or differences of risk, solely, for interpretation. To this end we provide a Stata module (logittorisk) for this purpose

Metabolic changes after surgical fat removal: A dose–response meta-analysis

BackgroundBariatric surgery averts obesity-induced insulin resistance and the metabolic syndrome. By contrast, surgical fat removal is considered merely an esthetic endeavor. The aim of this article was to establish whether surgical fat removal, similar to bariatric surgery, exerts measurable, lasting metabolic benefits. MethodsPubMed, Embase, and Scopus were searched using the Polyglot Search Translator to find studies examining quantitative expression of metabolic markers. Quality assessment was done using the MethodologicAl STandard for Epidemiological Research scale. The robust-error meta-regression model was employed for this synthesis. ResultsTwenty-two studies with 493 participants were included. Insulin sensitivity improved gradually with a maximum reduction in fasting insulin and homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance of 17 pmol/L and 1 point, respectively, at postoperative day 180. Peak metabolic benefits manifest as a reduction of 2 units in body mass index, 3 kg of fat mass, 5 cm of waist circumference, 15 µg/L of serum leptin, 0.75 pg/ml of tumor necrosis factor-alpha, 0.25 mmol/L of total cholesterol, and 3.5 mmHg of systolic and diastolic blood pressure that were observed at day 50 but were followed by a return to preoperative levels by day 180. Serum high-density lipoproteins peaked at 50 days post-surgery before falling below the baseline. No significant changes were observed in lean body mass, serum adiponectin, resistin, interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, triglyceride, low-density lipoproteins, free fatty acids, and fasting blood glucose. ConclusionSurgical fat removal exerts several metabolic benefits in the short term, but only improvements in insulin sensitivity last beyond 6 months.This project was supported by the Medical Research Office at Hamad Medical Corporation (#01-20-466) and the Qatar National Research Fund (projects #NPRP13S-0209-200315 and #NPRP14S-0406-210153). The responsibility for the article lies with the authors, and there was no influence of the funder

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))

GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Lt

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens