Adaptive regression modeling of biomarkers of potential harm in a population of U.S. adult cigarette smokers and nonsmokers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This article describes the data mining analysis of a clinical exposure study of 3585 adult smokers and 1077 nonsmokers. The analysis focused on developing models for four biomarkers of potential harm (BOPH): white blood cell count (WBC), 24 h urine 8-epi-prostaglandin F_2α(EPI8), 24 h urine 11-dehydro-thromboxane B₂(DEH11), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Random Forest was used for initial variable selection and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline was used for developing the final statistical models</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analysis resulted in the generation of models that predict each of the BOPH as function of selected variables from the smokers and nonsmokers. The statistically significant variables in the models were: platelet count, hemoglobin, C-reactive protein, triglycerides, race and biomarkers of exposure to cigarette smoke for WBC (R-squared = 0.29); creatinine clearance, liver enzymes, weight, vitamin use and biomarkers of exposure for EPI8 (R-squared = 0.41); creatinine clearance, urine creatinine excretion, liver enzymes, use of Non-steroidal antiinflammatory drugs, vitamins and biomarkers of exposure for DEH11 (R-squared = 0.29); and triglycerides, weight, age, sex, alcohol consumption and biomarkers of exposure for HDL (R-squared = 0.39).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Levels of WBC, EPI8, DEH11 and HDL were statistically associated with biomarkers of exposure to cigarette smoking and demographics and life style factors. All of the predictors togather explain 29%-41% of the variability in the BOPH.</p

A Simple Tetraminocalix[4]arene as a Highly Efficient Catalyst under "On-Water" Conditions through Hydrophobic Amplification of Weak Hydrogen Bonds

8The simple tetraminocalix[4]arene 1, which contains weak H-bond-donor NH2 groups, is reported to be a highly efficient organocatalyst for the Vinylogous Mukaiyama Aldol Reaction (VMAR) of 2-(trimethylsilyloxy)furan 5 with α-ketoesters 6 a-l under "on-water" conditions owing to the hydrophobic amplification of weak H-bond interactions. The catalytic efficiency of calixarene catalyst 1 was shown to be closely related to its recognition abilities towards the reactants 5 and 6 through a multipoint recognition model. The proposed model provided good explanations for the differences on the reaction rate acceleration and on the stereoselectivity observed with different substrates.partially_openembargoed_20180509De Rosa, Margherita; La Manna, Pellegrino; Soriente, Annunziata; Gaeta, Carmine; Talotta, Carmen; Hickey, Neal; Geremia, Silvano; Neri, PlacidoDe Rosa, Margherita; La Manna, Pellegrino; Soriente, Annunziata; Gaeta, Carmine; Talotta, Carmen; Hickey, JAMES NEIL; Geremia, Silvano; Neri, Placid

Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Background Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000-17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2 center dot 5th and 97 center dot 5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62 center dot 6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000-7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910-68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. Copyright (c) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17

Background Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910–68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage

Evaluating the relationship between biomarkers of potential harm and biomarkers of tobacco exposure among current, past, and nonsmokers: data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007–2012

<p>Potential long-term health effects from tobacco products can be estimated by measuring changes in biochemical indicators of disease mechanisms like inflammation. This study assesses the potential relationships between biomarkers of potential harm (BOPH) and biomarkers of cigarette smoke exposure (BOE) based on data from the NHANES (2007–2012, <i>n</i> = 17,293 respondents). Statistically significant relationships were observed between white blood cells (WBC) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and BOE; between WBC and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and smoking status; and between WBC and HDL and smoking intensity. This analysis suggests that WBC and HDL are useful BOPH in studies assessing the health risks of cigarette smoking.</p

Smokeless tobacco mortality risks: an analysis of two contemporary nationally representative longitudinal mortality studies

Abstract Background Assessments supporting smokeless tobacco (SLT) disease risk are generally decades old. Newer epidemiological data may more accurately represent the health risks associated with contemporary US-based SLT products, many of which contain lower levels of hazardous and potentially hazardous chemicals compared to previously available SLT products. Methods Data from two longitudinal datasets (National Longitudinal Mortality Study—NLMS, and the National Health Interview Survey—NHIS) were analyzed to determine potential associations between SLT use and/or cigarette smoking and all-cause and disease-specific mortality. Mortality hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards regression model applied to various groups, including never users of any tobacco or SLT product, and current and former SLT users and/or cigarette smokers. Results The two datasets yielded consistent findings with similar patterns evident for the specific causes of death measured. All-cause mortality risk for exclusive SLT users was significantly lower than that observed for exclusive cigarette smokers and dual SLT/cigarette users. Similar trends were found for mortality from diseases of the heart, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and malignant neoplasms. Mortality risk for lung cancer in exclusive cigarette smokers was increased by about 12-fold over never-tobacco users but was rarely present in exclusive SLT users in either survey (NHIS, < 5 cases/1,563 observations; NLMS, 3 cases/1,863 observations). While the data in the surveys are limited, SLT use by former cigarette smokers was not associated with an increase in the lung cancer risk HR compared to that by former cigarette smokers who never used SLT. Conclusions Emerging epidemiological data provides a new perspective on the health risks of SLT use compared to risks associated with cigarette smoking. HR estimates derived from two current US datasets, which include data on contemporary tobacco products, demonstrate a clear mortality risk differential between modern SLT products and cigarettes. Cigarette smokers had an increased overall mortality risk and risk for several disease-specific causes of death, while SLT users consistently had lower mortality risks