Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Using Dynamic Time Warping and Incremental Machine Learning Methods

The investment of time and resources for developing better strategies is key to dealing with future pandemics. In this work, we recreated the situation of COVID-19 across the year 2020, when the pandemic started spreading worldwide. We conducted experiments to predict the coronavirus cases for the 50 countries with the most cases during 2020. We compared the performance of state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, such as long-short-term memory networks, against that of online incremental machine learning algorithms. To find the best strategy, we performed experiments to test three different approaches. In the first approach (single-country), we trained each model using data only from the country we were predicting. In the second one (multiple-country), we trained a model using the data from the 50 countries, and we used that model to predict each of the 50 countries. In the third experiment, we first applied clustering to calculate the nine most similar countries to the country that we were predicting. We consider two countries to be similar if the differences between the curve that represents the COVID-19 time series are small. To do so, we used time series similarity measures (TSSM) such as Euclidean Distance (ED) and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). TSSM return a real value that represents the distance between the points in two time series which can be interpreted as how similar they are. Then, we trained the models with the data from the nine more similar countries to the one that was predicted and the predicted one. We used the model ARIMA as a baseline for our results. Results show that the idea of using TSSM is a very effective approach. By using it with the ED, the obtained RMSE in the singlecountry and multiple-country approaches was reduced by 74.21% and 74.70%, respectively. And by using the DTW, the RMSE was reduced by 74.89% and 75.36%. The main advantage of our methodology is that it is very simple and fast to apply since it is only based on time series data, as opposed to more complex methodologies that require a deep and thorough study to consider the number of parameters involved in the spread of the virus and their corresponding values. We made our code public to allow other researchers to explore our proposed methodology

Patrones de variación y cambio en la sintaxis del Siglo de Oro: un estudio variacionista de dos perífrasis modales en textos de inmediatez comunicativa

Using the hermeneutic tools of variationism in a corpus of a million and a half words, taken from texts approaching the pole of ‘language immediacy’ (private letters, diaries, etc.), this article analyzes the evolution of constraint factor conditioning the variability between deber & deber de + infi nitive periphrasis in the XVI and XVII centuries. The empirical research shows that deber has a prominent role in Golden Age Spanish, as well as in other moments in its history. However, unlike what has been observed in other periods, deber de has an important vitality in this period, with uses increasing signifi cantly from the second half of the sixteenth century onwards. This vitality is further strengthened in some linguistic contexts, either in isolation (epistemic contexts, modalized utterances –especially, emphasized ones–, negative sentences) or in interaction among them. Furthermore, the fact that these linguistic contexts are much more occasional in discourse than their opposing ones (deontic contexts, non modalized utterances, affi rmative sentences), could explain the secular disadvantage of this periphrasis versus its rival variant. Mediante las herramientas del variacionismo  lingüístico, y a partir de un corpus de un  millón y medio de palabras integrado por textos  cercanos al polo de la inmediatez comunicativa  (cartas privadas, diarios, etc.), en este artículo se  analiza la evolución de los factores que condicionan  la alternancia entre las perífrasis modales deber  y deber de + infinitivo durante el periodo del español  clásico. De la investigación empírica se desprende  que la variante no prepositiva ocupa una posición  predominante en el Siglo de Oro, al igual que en  otros momentos de la historia del español. Ahora  bien, a diferencia de lo que se ha observado en otras  épocas, deber de posee una aceptable vitalidad en  el periodo clásico, con usos que se incrementan significativamente a partir de la segunda mitad del  siglo XVI. Esta vitalidad se ve reforzada además en  algunos contextos lingüísticos, bien aisladamente  (contextos epistémicos, enunciados modalizados  –especialmente, enfáticos–, oraciones negativas),  bien en interacción entre sí. De paso, el hecho de  que estos entornos sean minoritarios en el discurso  con respecto a otros alternativos (contextos  deónticos, enunciados no modalizados, oraciones  afi rmativas) podría explicar la desventaja secular de  esta perífrasis frente a su competidora

Impact of Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder on Quality of Life from the Patients' Perspective : An Observational Cross-Sectional Study

Altres ajuts: Medical Department of Roche Farma, Spain (ML41397).Introduction: Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) is associated with a reduced health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The purpose of this study was to describe the impact of NMOSD on HRQoL from the patients' perspective and its relationship with other disease factors. Methods: An observational, cross-sectional study was conducted at 13 neuroimmunology clinics in Spain. Patients with NMOSD diagnosis (2015 Wingerchuk criteria) were included. The 29-item Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29) was used to assess the HRQoL. Different questionnaires were used to measure symptom severity, stigma, mood disorders, pain, fatigue, and difficulties in the workplace. Factors that impact HRQoL were identified by Spearman's correlation and multivariate linear regression analysis. Results: Seventy-one patients were included (mean age 47.4 ± 14.9 years, 80.3% female, mean time since disease onset 9.9 ± 8.1 years). The median Expanded Disability Status Scale score was 3.0 (1.5-4.5). The mean (± SD) physical and psychological MSIS-29 sub-scores were 41.9 ± 16.8 and 20.9 ± 8.3, respectively. Fatigue and body pain were the most prevalent symptoms. Depressive symptoms were found in 44.3% (n = 31) of patients. The physical MSIS-29 dimension showed the highest correlation with symptom severity (ρ = 0.85584, p < 0.0001), whereas the highest correlations for psychological MSIS-29 dimension were pain, MSIS-29 physical dimension, and depression (ρ = 0.76487, 0.72779, 0.71380; p < 0.0001, respectively). Pain was a predictor of both dimensions of MSIS-29. Conclusion: Fatigue, pain, and depressive symptoms are frequent problems among patients with NMOSD, impacting on their quality of life. Assessment of patient-oriented outcomes may be useful to achieve a holistic approach, allowing early specific interventions

Quantifying the patient´s perspective in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder: Psychometric properties of the SymptoMScreen questionnaire

Background: The assessment of self-reported outcomes in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) is limited by the lack of validated disease-specific measures. The SymptoMScreen (SyMS) is a patient-reported questionnaire for measuring symptom severity in different domains affected by multiple sclerosis (MS), but has not been thoroughly evaluated in NMOSD. The aim of this study was to assess the psychometric properties of the SyMS in a sample of patients with NMOSD. Methods: A non-interventional, cross-sectional study in adult subjects with NMOSD (Wingerchuk 2015 criteria) was conducted at 13 neuroimmunology clinics applying the SyMS. A non-parametric item response theory procedure, Mokken analysis, was performed to assess the underlying dimensional structure and scalability of items and overall questionnaire. All analyses were performed with R (v4.0.3) using the mokken library. Results: A total of 70 patients were studied (mean age: 47.5 ± 15 years, 80% female, mean Expanded Disability Status Scale score: 3.0 [interquartile range 1.5, 4.5]). Symptom severity was low (median SyMS score: 19.0 [interquartile range 10.0, 32.0]). The SyMS showed a robust internal reliability (Cronbach's alpha: 0.90 [95% confidence interval 0.86, 0.93]) and behaved as a unidimensional scale with all items showing scalability coefficients > 0.30. The overall SyMS scalability was 0.45 conforming to a medium scale according to Mokken's criteria. Fatigue and body pain were the domains with the highest scalability coefficients. The SyMS was associated with disability (rho: 0.586), and physical and psychological quality of life (rho: 0.856 and 0.696, respectively). Conclusions: The SyMS shows appropriate psychometric characteristics and may constitute a valuable and easy-to-implement option to measure symptom severity in patients with NMOSD

Perception of Stigma in Patients with Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder

Background: Perception of stigma was associated with low self-esteem, psychological problems, and decreased health-seeking behavior among patients with different neurological disorders. The purpose of this study was to assess stigmatization and its impact in patients with neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD). Methods: A non-interventional study was conducted at thirteen neuroimmunology clinics in Spain. Patients with a diagnosis of NMOSD (2015 Wingerchuk criteria) were included. The 8-item Stigma Scale for Chronic Illness (SSCI-8), the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), the 29-item Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29), the Beck Depression Inventory-Fast Screen (BDI-FS), the MOS Pain Effects Scale (MOS-PES) and the Fatigue Impact Scale for Daily Use (D-FIS) were used to assess the perception of stigma, disability, quality of life, mood, pain, and fatigue, respectively. Associations between outcome measures were analyzed using Spearman's rank correlation. Results: Seventy-one patients were studied (mean age: 47.4 years ± 14.9, 81.7% female, mean time since disease onset: 9.9 years ± 8.1). The median EDSS score was 3.0 (interquartile range 1.5, 4.5). Stigma prevalence was 61.4% (n=43). Thirty-one patients (43.6%) had depression. The SSCI-8 score showed a significant correlation with both physical (rho=0.576, p<0.0001) and psychological (rho=0.608, p<0.0001) MSIS-29 scales scores, EDSS score (rho=0.349, p=0.0033), BDI-FS score (rho= 0.613, p<0.0001), MOS-PES score (rho= 0.457, p<0.0001), and D-FIS score (rho=0.556, p<0.0001). Conclusion: Stigma is a common phenomenon affecting over 6 out of 10 patients with NMOSD. Understanding stigma may be useful to develop educational strategies improving NMOSD knowledge

Cognitive Performance and Health-Related Quality of Life in Patients with Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder

Background: The frequency of cognitive impairment (CI) reported in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) is highly variable, and its relationship with demographic and clinical characteristics is poorly understood. We aimed to describe the cognitive profile of NMOSD patients, and to analyse the cognitive differences according to their serostatus; furthermore, we aimed to assess the relationship between cognition, demographic and clinical characteristics, and other aspects linked to health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Methods: This cross-sectional study included 41 patients (median age, 44 years; 85% women) from 13 Spanish centres. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected along with a cognitive z-score (Rao's Battery) and HRQoL patient-centred measures, and their relationship was explored using linear regression. We used the Akaike information criterion to model which characteristics were associated with cognition. Results: Fourteen patients (34%) had CI, and the most affected cognitive domain was visual memory. Cognition was similar in AQP4-IgG-positive and -negative patients. Gender, mood, fatigue, satisfaction with life, and perception of stigma were associated with cognitive performance (adjusted R-2 = 0.396, p < 0.001). Conclusions: The results highlight the presence of CI and its impact on HRQoL in NMOSD patients. Cognitive and psychological assessments may be crucial to achieve a holistic approach in patient care

Strategies for the production of difficult-to-express full-length eukaryotic proteins using microbial cell factories : production of human alpha-galactosidase A

This work was supported by ERANET-IB08-007 project from the European Union and its linked national project EUI2008- 03610 to AV. We also appreciate the support from EME2007-08 to NFM from Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, from Antartide 2010 to MLT and EP, from MIUR Azioni Integrate Italia-Spagna 2010 Prot. IT10LECLM9 to MLT, from MINECO (IT2009-0021) to AV and LT, from AGAUR (2009SGR-108) to AV. AV is also supported by The Biomedical Research Networking Center in Bioengineering, Biomaterials and Nanomedicine (CIBER-BBN, Spain), an initiative funded by the VI National R&D&i Plan 2008-2011, Iniciativa Ingenio 2010, Consolider Program, CIBER Actions and financed by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III with assistance from the European Regional Development Fund. PS has received predoctoral fellowship from ISCIII, and AV has been distinguished with an ICREA ACADEMIA award (Catalonia, Spain).Obtaining high levels of pure proteins remains the main bottleneck of many scientific and biotechnological studies. Among all the available recombinant expression systems, Escherichia coli facilitates gene expression by its relative simplicity, inexpensive and fast cultivation, well-known genetics and the large number of tools available for its biotechnological application. However, recombinant expression in E. coli is not always a straightforward procedure and major obstacles are encountered when producing many eukaryotic proteins and especially membrane proteins, linked to missing posttranslational modifications, proteolysis and aggregation. In this context, many conventional and unconventional eukaryotic hosts are under exploration and development, but in some cases linked to complex culture media or processes. In this context, alternative bacterial systems able to overcome some of the limitations posed by E. coli keeping the simplicity of prokaryotic manipulation are currently emerging as convenient hosts for protein production. We have comparatively produced a "difficult-to-express" human protein, the lysosomal enzyme alpha-galactosidase A (hGLA) in E. coli and in the psychrophilic bacterium Pseudoalteromonas haloplanktis TAC125 cells (P. haloplanktis TAC125). While in E. coli the production of active hGLA was unreachable due to proteolytic instability and/or protein misfolding, the expression of hGLA gene in P. haloplanktis TAC125 allows obtaining active enzyme. These results are discussed in the context of emerging bacterial systems for protein production that represent appealing alternatives to the regular use of E. coli and also of more complex eukaryotic systems

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Pinturas murales de la casa de Ariadna (Pompeya, Italia): un estudio multidisciplinar de su estado actual enfocado a una futura restauración y conservación preventiva

[EN] This paper deals with the development of a multidisciplinary study on the current state of conservation of Ariadne’s house (Pompeii, Italy), a domus of great archaeological value. The aim of this study is to undertake the preventive conservation actions required and increase the knowledge about its conservation and to generate discussions and points of view for a future restoration. Environmental studies, electromagnetic radiation measurements, study of materials and a photographical study were carried out. Those studies revealed that the rooftops covering the analyzed rooms resulting in adverse weather conditions causing grave damage to the conservation of the wall paintings. Thus, between 2009-2010 the rooftops were changed and new environmental studies were conducted. Studies of materials showed that the paintings match in execution and composition with those reported by other authors. The salts from modern mortars from previous restorations were affecting frescoes, also it is described a thin grayish surface layer from environmental contaminants.[ES] Este trabajo desarrolla un estudio multidisciplinar sobre el actual estado de conservación de la casa de Ariadna (Pompeya, Italia), domus de gran valor arqueológico. El objetivo es aumentar el conocimiento del estado actual de conservación de la casa para la discusión de una futura restauración. Para ello se realizaron estudios ambientales, mediciones de radiación electromagnética, estudio de materiales y un estudio fotográfico. Los estudios revelaron que los tejados que cubrían las salas analizadas estaban originando unas condiciones climatológicas adversas que se traducían en un grave daño para la conservación de las pinturas murales. Entre 2009-2010 se cambiaron las cubiertas y los estudios ambientales fueron repetidos. Los estudios de materiales demostraron que las pinturas coinciden en ejecución y composición con las señaladas por otros autores. Las sales procedentes de morteros modernos de anteriores restauraciones afectaban a las pinturas, también se describe una fina capa superficial de tonalidad grisácea procedente de contaminantes ambientales.This work was partially supported by the Spanish "Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion" under projects HAR2010-21944-C02-01 and HAR2010-21944-C02-02. The authors are grateful to J. Minguez for his English grammar corrections.Pérez García, MDC.; García Diego, FJ.; Merello Giménez, P.; D'antoni, P.; Fernández Navajas, A.; Ribera I Lacomba, A.; Ferrazza, L.... (2013). Ariadne's house (Pompeii, Italy) wall paintings: A multidisciplinary study of its present state focused on a future restoration and preventive conservation. Materiales de Construcción. 63(311):449-467. https://doi.org/10.3989/mc.2012.00812S4494676331