Impact of changing US cigarette smoking patterns on incident cancer: Risks of 20 smoking-related cancers among the women and men of the NIH-AARP cohort

Background: Historically, US women started smoking at a later age than men and had lower relative risks for smoking-related cancers. However, more recent birth cohorts of women and men have similar smoking histories and have now reached the high-risk age for cancer. The impact of these changes on cancer incidence has not been systematically examined. Methods: Relative risks (RR), 95% confidence intervals (CI) and attributable fractions were calculated for cigarette smoking and incidence of 20 smoking-related cancers in 186 057 women and 266 074 men of the National Institutes of Health-AARP cohort, aged 50 to 71 years in 1995 and followed for 11 years. Results: In the cohort, which included participants born between 1924 and 1945, most women and men started smoking as teenagers. RRs for current vs never smoking were similar in women and men for the following cancers: lung squamous-cell (RR women: 121.4, 95% CI: 57.3–257.4; RR men:114.6, 95% CI: 61.2–214.4), lung adenocarcinoma (RR women: 11.7, 95% CI: 9.8–14.0; RR men: 15.6, 95% CI: 12.5–19.6), laryngeal (RR women: 37.0, 95% CI: 14.9–92.3; RR men: 13.8, 95% CI: 9.3–20.2), oral cavity-pharyngeal (RR women:4.4, 95% CI: 3.3–6.0; RR men: 3.8, 95% CI: 3.0–4.7), oesophageal squamous cell (RR women: 7.3, 95% CI: 3.5–15.5; RR men: 6.2, 95% CI: 2.8–13.7), bladder (RR women: 4.7, 95% CI: 3.7–5.8; RR men: 4.0, 95% CI: 3.5–4.5), colon (RR women: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.2–1.5; RR men: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.1–1.4), and at other sites, with similar attributable fractions. Conclusions: RRs for current smoking and incidence of many smoking-related cancers are now similar in US women and men, likely reflecting converging smoking patterns

Quasi-linear simulations of inner radiation belt electron pitch angle and energy distributions

“Peculiar” or “butterfly” electron pitch angle distributions (PADs), with minima near 90°, have recently been observed in the inner radiation belt. These electrons are traditionally treated by pure pitch angle diffusion, driven by plasmaspheric hiss, lightning-generated whistlers, and VLF transmitter signals. Since this leads to monotonic PADs, energy diffusion by magnetosonic waves has been proposed to account for the observations. We show that the observed PADs arise readily from two-dimensional diffusion at L = 2, with or without magnetosonic waves. It is necessary to include cross diffusion, which accounts for the relationship between pitch angle and energy changes. The distribution of flux with energy is also in good agreement with observations between 200 keV and 1 MeV, dropping to very low levels at higher energy. Thus, at this location radial diffusion may be negligible at subrelativistic as well as ultrarelativistic energy

Observations of Radiation Belt Losses Due to Cyclotron Wave-Particle Interactions

Electron loss to the atmosphere plays a critical role in driving dynamics of the Earths Van Allen radiation belts and slot region. This is a review of atmospheric loss of radiation belt electrons caused by plasma wave scattering via Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance. In particular, the focus is on observational signatures of electron loss, which include direct measurements of precipitating electrons, measured properties of waves that drive precipitation, and variations in the trapped population resulting from loss. We discuss wave and precipitation measurements from recent missions, including simultaneous multi-payload observations, which have provided new insight into the dynamic nature of the radiation belts

Three-dimensional stochastic modeling of radiation belts in adiabatic invariant coordinates

A 3-D model for solving the radiation belt diffusion equation in adiabatic invariant coordinates has been developed and tested. The model, named REM (for Radbelt Electron Model), obtains a probabilistic solution by solving a set of Itô stochastic differential equations that are mathematically equivalent to the diffusion equation. This method is capable of solving diffusion equations with a full 3-D diffusion tensor, including the radial-local cross diffusion components. The correct form of the boundary condition at equatorial pitch-angle α0 = 90° is also derived. The model is applied to a simulation of the October 2002 storm event. At α0 near 90°, our results are quantitatively consistent with GPS observations of phase-space density (PSD) increases, suggesting dominance of radial diffusion; at smaller α0, the observed PSD increases are overestimated by the model, possibly due to the α0-independent radial diffusion coefficients, or to insufficientelectron loss in the model, or both. Statistical analysis of the stochastic processes provides further insights into the diffusion processes, showing distinctive electron source distributions with and without local acceleration

Event-specific chorus wave and electron seed population models in DREAM3D using the Van Allen Probes

Abstract The DREAM3D diffusion model is applied to Van Allen Probes observations of the fast dropout and strong enhancement of MeV electrons during the October 2012 double-dip storm. We show that in order to explain the very different behavior in the two dips, diffusion in all three dimensions (energy, pitch angle, and Lo) coupled with data-driven, event-specific inputs, and boundary conditions is required. Specifically, we find that outward radial diffusion to the solar wind-driven magnetopause, an event-specific chorus wave model, and a dynamic lower-energy seed population are critical for modeling the dynamics. In contrast, models that include only a subset of processes, use statistical wave amplitudes, or rely on inward radial diffusion of a seed population, perform poorly. The results illustrate the utility of the high resolution, comprehensive set of Van Allen Probes\u27 measurements in studying the balance between source and loss in the radiation belt, a principal goal of the mission. Key Points DREAM3D uses event-specific driving conditions measured by Van Allen Probes Electron dropout is due to outward radial diffusion to compressed magnetopause Event-specific chorus and seed electrons are necessary for the enhancement

Recent Developments in the Radiation Belt Environment Model

The fluxes of energetic particles in the radiation belts are found to be strongly controlled by the solar wind conditions. In order to understand and predict the radiation particle intensities, we have developed a physics-based Radiation Belt Environment (RBE) model that considers the influences from the solar wind, ring current and plasmasphere. Recently, an improved calculation of wave-particle interactions has been incorporated. In particular, the model now includes cross diffusion in energy and pitch-angle. We find that the exclusion of cross diffusion could cause significant overestimation of electron flux enhancement during storm recovery. The RBE model is also connected to MHD fields so that the response of the radiation belts to fast variations in the global magnetosphere can be studied.Weare able to reproduce the rapid flux increase during a substorm dipolarization on 4 September 2008. The timing is much shorter than the time scale of wave associated acceleration

Geochemical ice-core constraints on the timing and climatic impact of Aniakchak II (1628 BCE) and Thera (Minoan) volcanic eruptions

This work was supported by funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement 820047 to M.Si.), the Malcolm H. Wiener Foundation (Interdisciplinary Chronology of Civilizations Project to C.P.) and a UKRI Future Leader Fellowship (MR/S035478/1 to P.A).Decades of research have focused on establishing the exact year and climatic impact of the Minoan eruption of Thera, Greece (c.1680–1500 BCE). Ice cores offer key evidence to resolve this controversy, but attempts have been hampered by a lack of multi-volcanic event synchronization between records. In this study, Antarctic and Greenland ice-core records are synchronized using a double bipolar sulfate marker and calendar dates are assigned to each eruption revealed within the ‘Thera period’. From this global scale sequence of volcanic sulfate loading, we derive indications towards each eruption’s latitude and potential to disrupt the climate system. Ultra-fine sampling for sulfur isotopes and tephra conclusively demonstrate a colossal eruption of Alaska’s Aniakchak II as the source of stratospheric sulfate in the now precisely dated 1628 BCE ice layer. These findings end decades of speculation that Thera was responsible for the 1628 BCE event, and place Aniakchak II (52 ± 17 Tg S) and an unknown volcano at 1654 BCE (50 ± 13 Tg S) as two of the largest Northern Hemisphere sulfur injections in the last 4000 years. This opens possibilities to explore widespread climatic impacts for contemporary societies and, in pinpointing Aniakchak II, confirms that stratospheric sulfate can be globally distributed from eruptions outside the tropics. Dating options for Thera are reduced to a series of precisely dated, constrained stratospheric sulfur injection events at 1611 BCE, 1562-1555 BCE and c.1538 BCE which are all below 14 ± 5 Tg S, indicating a climatic forcing potential for Thera well below that of Tambora (1815 CE).Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Global model of plasmaspheric hiss from multiple satellite observations

We present a global model of plasmaspheric hiss, using data from eight satellites, extending the coverage and improving the statistics of existing models. We use geomagnetic activity dependent templates to separate plasmaspheric hiss from chorus. In the region 22–14 magnetic local time (MLT) the boundary between plasmaspheric hiss and chorus moves to lower values with increasing geomagnetic activity. The average wave intensity of plasmaspheric hiss is largest on the dayside and increases with increasing geomagnetic activity from midnight through dawn to dusk. Plasmaspheric hiss is most intense and spatially extended in the 200 to 500 Hz frequency band during active conditions, 400 750 nT, with an average intensity of 1,128 pT in the region 05–17 MLT from 1.5 . In the prenoon sector, waves in the 100 to 200 Hz frequency band peak near the magnetic equator and decrease in intensity with increasing magnetic latitude, inconsistent with a source from chorus outside the plasmapause, but more consistent with local amplification by substorm‐injected electrons. At higher frequencies the average wave intensities in this sector exhibit two peaks, one near the magnetic equator and one at high latitudes, 45° °, with a minimum at intermediate latitudes, 30° °, consistent with a source from chorus outside the plasmapause. In the premidnight sector, the intensity of plasmaspheric hiss in the frequency range 50 < f < 1,000 Hz decreases with increasing geomagnetic activity. The source of this weak premidnight plasmaspheric hiss is likely to be chorus at larger in the postnoon sector that enters that plasmasphere in the postnoon sector and subsequently propagates eastward in MLT

Inner belt and slot region electron lifetimes and energization rates based on AKEBONO statistics of whistler waves

International audienceGlobal statistics of the amplitude distributions of hiss, lightning-generated, and other whistlermode waves fromterrestrial VLF transmitters have been obtained from the EXOS-D (Akebono) satellite in theEarth’s plasmasphere and fitted as functions of L and latitude for two geomagnetic activity ranges (Kp 3). In particular, the present study focuses on the inner zone L ∈ [1.4, 2] where reliable in situmeasurements were lacking. Such statistics are critically needed for an accurate assessment of the role andrelative dominance of each type of wave in the dynamics of the inner radiation belt. While VLF waves seemto propagate mainly in a ducted mode at L ∼ 1.5–3 for Kp 3). Hiss waves are generally the most intense in the inner belt, andlightning-generated and hiss wave intensities increase with geomagnetic activity. Lightning-generatedwave amplitudes generally peak within 10◦ of the equator in the region L < 2 where magnetosonic waveamplitudes are weak for Kp < 3. Based on this statistics, simplified models of each wave type are presented.Quasi-linear pitch angle and energy diffusion rates of electrons by the full wave model are then calculated.Corresponding electron lifetimes compare well with decay rates of trapped energetic electrons obtainedfrom Solar Anomalous and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer and other satellites at L ∈ [1.4, 2]