Information relevance of deferred tax : a thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Accounting at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand

The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) has undertaken research on accounting for income taxes. The IASB research suggests that a fundamental change from International Accounting Standard 12: Income Taxes (IAS 12), the balance sheet method, to another method may be considered. Other methods for accounting for deferred tax include the taxes payable method, the comprehensive basis under the income statement method, and the partial basis under the income statement method. This thesis provides evidence on this issue by using non-United States data to examine these deferred tax methods. This thesis examines the research question “are deferred tax methods, relative to the taxes payable method, information relevant?” Information that is ‘information relevant’ has two components: predictability and value relevance (Ohlson, 1995). The predictability of deferred tax methods is measured by its ability to predict future tax payments relative to the taxes payable method. The value relevance of deferred tax methods is measured by its association with share price relative to the taxes payable method. Literature examining deferred taxes predominately uses United States US data and US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (US GAAP), and only partially examines deferred tax methods. This thesis contributes to the literature by examining all three deferred tax line items: deferred tax liabilities, deferred tax assets and deferred tax expense. The data is collected from the financial information for firms listed on the NZ Stock Exchange. Two samples of firms are examined: from 2000 to 2004 (pre IFRS) and 2008 to 2012 (post IFRS). The results show that the comprehensive basis under the income statement method is a better predictor of future tax payments and is value relevant relative to the taxes payable method. This indicates that it is information relevant. The partial basis under the income statement method is a better predictor of future tax payments relative to the taxes payable method however it is only value relevant for firms in the highest three deciles of mean increases in tax paid over the period. The balance sheet method is not a better predictor of future tax payments relative to the taxes payable method. The balance sheet method is, however, value relevant. The balance sheet method using disaggregated deferred tax is also value relevant relative to the balance sheet method

Deferred tax-- the effect of the implementation of NZ IAS 12 : income taxes : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Studies (Accountancy) at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand

Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to document the changes to income tax and deferred tax due to the implementation of New Zealand International Financial Reporting Standards (NZ IFRS), particularly New Zealand International Accounting Standard 12: Income Taxes (NZ IAS 12). Motivation: Stent, Bradbury and Hooks (2010) investigate the effect of the implementation of NZ IFRS on assets and liabilities generally. The results indicate that tax assets and tax liabilities increase but an in-depth analysis of income tax and deferred tax changes and the reason for these changes is not provided. Research Question: What was the impact of changing from Standard Statement of Accounting Practice 12: Accounting for Income Tax (SSAP 12) under NZ FRS to NZ IAS 12: Income Taxes under NZ IFRS on income tax and deferred tax as recorded in the statement of financial position and notes to the financial statements? Design/Methodology: Using a sample of entities listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX), I analyse the dollar effect, percentage change and direction of change to income tax, deferred tax and net tax assets (liabilities) due to the mandatory change to NZ IAS 12 for the period 2005 to 2008. I analyse the variables that influence the change in income tax and deferred tax due to the implementation of NZ IFRS including users of the partial and comprehensive basis, asset revaluation reserves, unrecognised deferred tax assets, early and late adopters and small and large entities. Findings: The results indicate that partial basis deferred tax users and those with asset revaluation reserves have larger decreases (increases) in net tax assets (liabilities). Late adopters and smaller companies are also less affected by the implementation of NZ IAS 12 than their counterparts. Research Limitations: Small sample Practical Implications: I provide an extensive comparison between SSAP 12 pre NZ IFRS and NZ IAS 12 post NZ IFRS and highlight the differences between the partial basis and comprehensive basis. My results also provide information to the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) who are currently working towards convergence of United States Generally Accepted Accounting Policies (US GAAP) and IFRS

An early post-transplant relapse prediction score in multiple myeloma: a large cohort study from the chronic malignancies working party of EBMT

Early relapse (ER) following Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation (AHCT) confers a poor prognosis. We therefore developed a novel scoring system to predict ER. A total of 14,367 AHCT-1 patients were transplanted between 2014 and 2019, and were conditioned with Melphalan 200 mg/m2 (Mel200) (n = 7228; 2014–2017) (training cohort); Mel200 (n = 5616; 2018–2019) or Mel140 (n = 1523; 2018–2019) (validation cohorts). PFS-12 and the Cumulative Incidence of Relapse at 12 months were 84.1% and 14.7% (training Mel200), 87.2% and 11.6% (validation Mel200), and 80.3% and 16.9% (validation Mel140), respectively. The points in the risk score were: 0, 1,2 for ISS stages I, II, and III; Disease status: 0 (CR/VGPR); 1 (PR); 2 (SD/MR); 4 (Relapse/Progression); and 1 for Karnofsky ≤ 70. The distribution of scores: 0 (24%), 1 (33.9%), 2 (29.6 %), 3 (9.5%), and ≥4 (2.7%). The score separated PFS-12, with the lowest risk group (n = 1752) having a PFS-12 of 91.7% and the highest risk group (n = 195) 57.1%. This also applied in cytogenetically high-risk patients. If the pre-score baseline risks are 15% (standard risk) and 25% (high-risk), a score of ≥4 confers calculated risks of 38% and 54%, respectively. This novel EBMT ER score, therefore, allows for the identification of five discrete prognostic groups

Ruxolitinib for Glucocorticoid-Refractory Chronic Graft-versus-Host Disease

Background: Chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), a major complication of allogeneic stem-cell transplantation, becomes glucocorticoid-refractory or glucocorticoid-dependent in approximately 50% of patients. Robust data from phase 3 randomized studies evaluating second-line therapy for chronic GVHD are lacking. In retrospective surveys, ruxolitinib, a Janus kinase (JAK1-JAK2) inhibitor, showed potential efficacy in patients with glucocorticoid-refractory or -dependent chronic GVHD. Methods: This phase 3 open-label, randomized trial evaluated the efficacy and safety of ruxolitinib at a dose of 10 mg twice daily, as compared with the investigator's choice of therapy from a list of 10 commonly used options considered best available care (control), in patients 12 years of age or older with moderate or severe glucocorticoid-refractory or -dependent chronic GVHD. The primary end point was overall response (complete or partial response) at week 24; key secondary end points were failure-free survival and improved score on the modified Lee Symptom Scale at week 24. Results: A total of 329 patients underwent randomization; 165 patients were assigned to receive ruxolitinib and 164 patients to receive control therapy. Overall response at week 24 was greater in the ruxolitinib group than in the control group (49.7% vs. 25.6%; odds ratio, 2.99; P18.6 months vs. 5.7 months; hazard ratio, 0.37; P<0.001) and higher symptom response (24.2% vs. 11.0%; odds ratio, 2.62; P = 0.001). The most common (occurring in ≥10% patients) adverse events of grade 3 or higher up to week 24 were thrombocytopenia (15.2% in the ruxolitinib group and 10.1% in the control group) and anemia (12.7% and 7.6%, respectively). The incidence of cytomegalovirus infections and reactivations was similar in the two groups. Conclusions: Among patients with glucocorticoid-refractory or -dependent chronic GVHD, ruxolitinib led to significantly greater overall response, failure-free survival, and symptom response. The incidence of thrombocytopenia and anemia was greater with ruxolitinib. (Funded by Novartis and Incyte; REACH3 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03112603.)

Therapeutic manipulation of glucocorticoid metabolism in cardiovascular disease

The therapeutic potential for manipulation of glucocorticoid metabolism in cardiovascular disease was revolutionized by the recognition that access of glucocorticoids to their receptors is regulated in a tissue-specific manner by the isozymes of 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase. Selective inhibitors of 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 have been shown recently to ameliorate cardiovascular risk factors and inhibit the development of atherosclerosis. This article addresses the possibility that inhibition of 11β-hydroxsteroid dehydrogenase type 1 activity in cells of the cardiovascular system contributes to this beneficial action. The link between glucocorticoids and cardiovascular disease is complex as glucocorticoid excess is linked with increased cardiovascular events but glucocorticoid administration can reduce atherogenesis and restenosis in animal models. There is considerable evidence that glucocorticoids can interact directly with cells of the cardiovascular system to alter their function and structure and the inflammatory response to injury. These actions may be regulated by glucocorticoid and/or mineralocorticoid receptors but are also dependent on the 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenases which may be expressed in cardiac, vascular (endothelial, smooth muscle) and inflammatory (macrophages, neutrophils) cells. The activity of 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenases in these cells is dependent upon differentiation state, the action of pro-inflammaotory cytokines and the influence of endogenous inhibitors (oxysterols, bile acids). Further investigations are required to clarify the link between glucocorticoid excess and cardiovascular events and to determine the mechanism through which glucocorticoid treatment inhibits atherosclerosis/restenosis. This will provide greater insights into the potential benefit of selective 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase inhibitors in treatment of cardiovascular disease

Paediatric COVID-19 mortality: a database analysis of the impact of health resource disparity

Background The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on paediatric populations varied between high-income countries (HICs) versus low-income to middle-income countries (LMICs). We sought to investigate differences in paediatric clinical outcomes and identify factors contributing to disparity between countries.Methods The International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 database was queried to include children under 19 years of age admitted to hospital from January 2020 to April 2021 with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis. Univariate and multivariable analysis of contributing factors for mortality were assessed by country group (HICs vs LMICs) as defined by the World Bank criteria.Results A total of 12 860 children (3819 from 21 HICs and 9041 from 15 LMICs) participated in this study. Of these, 8961 were laboratory-confirmed and 3899 suspected COVID-19 cases. About 52% of LMICs children were black, and more than 40% were infants and adolescent. Overall in-hospital mortality rate (95% CI) was 3.3% [=(3.0% to 3.6%), higher in LMICs than HICs (4.0% (3.6% to 4.4%) and 1.7% (1.3% to 2.1%), respectively). There were significant differences between country income groups in intervention profile, with higher use of antibiotics, antivirals, corticosteroids, prone positioning, high flow nasal cannula, non-invasive and invasive mechanical ventilation in HICs. Out of the 439 mechanically ventilated children, mortality occurred in 106 (24.1%) subjects, which was higher in LMICs than HICs (89 (43.6%) vs 17 (7.2%) respectively). Pre-existing infectious comorbidities (tuberculosis and HIV) and some complications (bacterial pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome and myocarditis) were significantly higher in LMICs compared with HICs. On multivariable analysis, LMIC as country income group was associated with increased risk of mortality (adjusted HR 4.73 (3.16 to 7.10)).Conclusion Mortality and morbidities were higher in LMICs than HICs, and it may be attributable to differences in patient demographics, complications and access to supportive and treatment modalities

Association of Country Income Level With the Characteristics and Outcomes of Critically Ill Patients Hospitalized With Acute Kidney Injury and COVID-19

Introduction: Acute kidney injury (AKI) has been identified as one of the most common and significant problems in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. However, studies examining the relationship between COVID-19 and AKI in low- and low-middle income countries (LLMIC) are lacking. Given that AKI is known to carry a higher mortality rate in these countries, it is important to understand differences in this population. Methods: This prospective, observational study examines the AKI incidence and characteristics of 32,210 patients with COVID-19 from 49 countries across all income levels who were admitted to an intensive care unit during their hospital stay. Results: Among patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit, AKI incidence was highest in patients in LLMIC, followed by patients in upper-middle income countries (UMIC) and high-income countries (HIC) (53%, 38%, and 30%, respectively), whereas dialysis rates were lowest among patients with AKI from LLMIC and highest among those from HIC (27% vs. 45%). Patients with AKI in LLMIC had the largest proportion of community-acquired AKI (CA-AKI) and highest rate of in-hospital death (79% vs. 54% in HIC and 66% in UMIC). The association between AKI, being from LLMIC and in-hospital death persisted even after adjusting for disease severity. Conclusions: AKI is a particularly devastating complication of COVID-19 among patients from poorer nations where the gaps in accessibility and quality of healthcare delivery have a major impact on patient outcomes

Liver injury in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: An International observational cohort study

Background: Using a large dataset, we evaluated prevalence and severity of alterations in liver enzymes in COVID-19 and association with patient-centred outcomes.MethodsWe included hospitalized patients with confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection from the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) database. Key exposure was baseline liver enzymes (AST, ALT, bilirubin). Patients were assigned Liver Injury Classification score based on 3 components of enzymes at admission: Normal; Stage I) Liver injury: any component between 1-3x upper limit of normal (ULN); Stage II) Severe liver injury: any component &amp; GE;3x ULN. Outcomes were hospital mortality, utilization of selected resources, complications, and durations of hospital and ICU stay. Analyses used logistic regression with associations expressed as adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsOf 17,531 included patients, 46.2% (8099) and 8.2% (1430) of patients had stage 1 and 2 liver injury respectively. Compared to normal, stages 1 and 2 were associated with higher odds of mortality (OR 1.53 [1.37-1.71]; OR 2.50 [2.10-2.96]), ICU admission (OR 1.63 [1.48-1.79]; OR 1.90 [1.62-2.23]), and invasive mechanical ventilation (OR 1.43 [1.27-1.70]; OR 1.95 (1.55-2.45). Stages 1 and 2 were also associated with higher odds of developing sepsis (OR 1.38 [1.27-1.50]; OR 1.46 [1.25-1.70]), acute kidney injury (OR 1.13 [1.00-1.27]; OR 1.59 [1.32-1.91]), and acute respiratory distress syndrome (OR 1.38 [1.22-1.55]; OR 1.80 [1.49-2.17]).ConclusionsLiver enzyme abnormalities are common among COVID-19 patients and associated with worse outcomes

Implementation of Recommendations on the Use of Corticosteroids in Severe COVID-19

Importance: Research diversity and representativeness are paramount in building trust, generating valid biomedical knowledge, and possibly in implementing clinical guidelines. Objectives: To compare variations over time and across World Health Organization (WHO) geographic regions of corticosteroid use for treatment of severe COVID-19; secondary objectives were to evaluate the association between the timing of publication of the RECOVERY (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy) trial (June 2020) and the WHO guidelines for corticosteroids (September 2020) and the temporal trends observed in corticosteroid use by region and to describe the geographic distribution of the recruitment in clinical trials that informed the WHO recommendation. Design, setting, and participants: This prospective cohort study of 434 851 patients was conducted between January 31, 2020, and September 2, 2022, in 63 countries worldwide. The data were collected under the auspices of the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC)-WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol for Severe Emerging Infections. Analyses were restricted to patients hospitalized for severe COVID-19 (a subset of the ISARIC data set). Exposure: Corticosteroid use as reported to the ISARIC-WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol for Severe Emerging Infections. Main outcomes and measures: Number and percentage of patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 who received corticosteroids by time period and by WHO geographic region. Results: Among 434 851 patients with confirmed severe or critical COVID-19 for whom receipt of corticosteroids could be ascertained (median [IQR] age, 61.0 [48.0-74.0] years; 53.0% male), 174 307 (40.1%) received corticosteroids during the study period. Of the participants in clinical trials that informed the guideline, 91.6% were recruited from the United Kingdom. In all regions, corticosteroid use for severe COVID-19 increased, but this increase corresponded to the timing of the RECOVERY trial (time-interruption coefficient 1.0 [95% CI, 0.9-1.2]) and WHO guideline (time-interruption coefficient 1.9 [95% CI, 1.7-2.0]) publications only in Europe. At the end of the study period, corticosteroid use for treatment of severe COVID-19 was highest in the Americas (5421 of 6095 [88.9%]; 95% CI, 87.7-90.2) and lowest in Africa (31 588 of 185 191 [17.1%]; 95% CI, 16.8-17.3). Conclusions and relevance: The results of this cohort study showed that implementation of the guidelines for use of corticosteroids in the treatment of severe COVID-19 varied geographically. Uptake of corticosteroid treatment was lower in regions with limited clinical trial involvement. Improving research diversity and representativeness may facilitate timely knowledge uptake and guideline implementation

At-admission prediction of mortality and pulmonary embolism in an international cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 using statistical and machine learning methods

By September 2022, more than 600 million cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been reported globally, resulting in over 6.5 million deaths. COVID-19 mortality risk estimators are often, however, developed with small unrepresentative samples and with methodological limitations. It is highly important to develop predictive tools for pulmonary embolism (PE) in COVID-19 patients as one of the most severe preventable complications of COVID-19. Early recognition can help provide life-saving targeted anti-coagulation therapy right at admission. Using a dataset of more than 800,000 COVID-19 patients from an international cohort, we propose a cost-sensitive gradient-boosted machine learning model that predicts occurrence of PE and death at admission. Logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards models, and Shapley values were used to identify key predictors for PE and death. Our prediction model had a test AUROC of 75.9% and 74.2%, and sensitivities of 67.5% and 72.7% for PE and all-cause mortality respectively on a highly diverse and held-out test set. The PE prediction model was also evaluated on patients in UK and Spain separately with test results of 74.5% AUROC, 63.5% sensitivity and 78.9% AUROC, 95.7% sensitivity. Age, sex, region of admission, comorbidities (chronic cardiac and pulmonary disease, dementia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, obesity, smoking), and symptoms (any, confusion, chest pain, fatigue, headache, fever, muscle or joint pain, shortness of breath) were the most important clinical predictors at admission. Age, overall presence of symptoms, shortness of breath, and hypertension were found to be key predictors for PE using our extreme gradient boosted model. This analysis based on the, until now, largest global dataset for this set of problems can inform hospital prioritisation policy and guide long term clinical research and decision-making for COVID-19 patients globally. Our machine learning model developed from an international cohort can serve to better regulate hospital risk prioritisation of at-risk patients