Comparison of the oxygen isotope signatures in speleothem records and iHadCM3 model simulations for the last millennium

Improving the understanding of changes in the mean and variability of climate variables as well as their interrelation is crucial for reliable climate change projections. Comparisons between general circulation models and paleoclimate archives using indirect proxies for temperature or precipitation have been used to test and validate the capability of climate models to represent climate changes. The oxygen isotopic ratio δ18O, a proxy for many different climate variables, is routinely measured in speleothem samples at decadal or higher resolution, and single specimens can cover full glacial–interglacial cycles. The calcium carbonate cave deposits are precisely dateable and provide well preserved (semi-)continuous albeit multivariate climate signals in the lower and mid-latitudes, where the measured δ18O in the mineral does not directly represent temperature or precipitation. Therefore, speleothems represent suitable archives to assess climate model abilities to simulate climate variability beyond the timescales covered by meteorological observations (101–102 years). Here, we present three transient isotope-enabled simulations from the Hadley Center Climate Model version 3 (iHadCM3) covering the last millennium (850–1850 CE) and compare them to a large global dataset of speleothem δ18O records from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis (SISAL) database version 2 (Comas-Bru et al., 2020b). We systematically evaluate offsets in mean and variance of simulated δ18O and test for the main climate drivers recorded in δ18O for individual records or regions. The time-mean spatial offsets between the simulated δ18O and the speleothem data are fairly small. However, using robust filters and spectral analysis, we show that the observed archive-based variability of δ18O is lower than simulated by iHadCM3 on decadal and higher on centennial timescales. Most of this difference can likely be attributed to the records' lower temporal resolution and averaging or smoothing processes affecting the δ18O signal, e.g., through soil water residence times. Using cross-correlation analyses at site level and modeled grid-box level, we find evidence for highly variable but generally low signal-to-noise ratios in the proxy data. This points to a high influence of cave-internal processes and regional climate particularities and could suggest low regional representativity of individual sites. Long-range strong positive correlations dominate the speleothem correlation network but are much weaker in the simulation. One reason for this could lie in a lack of long-term internal climate variability in these model simulations, which could be tested by repeating similar comparisons with other isotope-enabled climate models and paleoclimate databases

Contrasting state-dependent effects of natural forcing on global and local climate variability

Natural forcing from solar and volcanic activity contributes significantly to climate variability. The post-eruption cooling of strong volcanic eruptions was hypothesized to have led to millennial-scale variability during Glacials. Cooling induced by volcanic eruption is potentially weaker in the warmer climate. The underlying question is whether the climatic response to natural forcing is state-dependent. Here, we quantify the response to natural forcing under Last Glacial and Pre-Industrial conditions in an ensemble of climate model simulations. We evaluate internal and forced variability on annual to multicentennial scales. The global temperature response reveals no state dependency. Small local differences result mainly from state-dependent sea ice changes. Variability in forced simulations matches paleoclimate reconstructions significantly better than in unforced scenarios. Considering natural forcing is therefore important for model-data comparison and future projections

Simulating the 128-ka Antarctic climate response to Northern Hemisphere ice sheet melting using the isotope-enabled HadCM3

Warmer than present Antarctic and Southern Ocean temperatures during the last interglacial, approximately 128,000 years ago, have been attributed to changes in north‐south ocean heat transport, causing opposing hemispheric temperature anomalies. We investigate the magnitude of Antarctic warming and Antarctic ice core isotopic enrichment in response to Northern Hemisphere meltwater input during the early last interglacial. A 1,600‐year HadCM3 simulation driven by 0.25 Sv of meltwater input reproduces 50–60% of the peak Southern Ocean summer sea surface temperature anomaly, sea ice retreat, and ice core isotope enrichment. We also find a robust increase in the proportion of cold season precipitation during the last interglacial, leading to lower isotopic values at the Antarctic ice core sites. These results suggest that a HadCM3 simulation including 0.25 Sv for 3,000–4,000 years would reconcile the last interglacial observations, providing a potential solution for the last interglacial missing heat problem

Accuracy and Efficiency of Recording Pediatric Early Warning Scores Using an Electronic Physiological Surveillance System Compared With Traditional Paper-Based Documentation

Pediatric Early Warning Scores are advocated to assist health professionals to identify early signs of serious illness or deterioration in hospitalized children. Scores are derived from the weighting applied to recorded vital signs and clinical observations reflecting deviation from a predetermined "norm." Higher aggregate scores trigger an escalation in care aimed at preventing critical deterioration. Process errors made while recording these data, including plotting or calculation errors, have the potential to impede the reliability of the score. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a controlled study of documentation using five clinical vignettes. We measured the accuracy of vital sign recording, score calculation, and time taken to complete documentation using a handheld electronic physiological surveillance system, VitalPAC Pediatric, compared with traditional paper-based charts. We explored the user acceptability of both methods using a Web-based survey. Twenty-three staff participated in the controlled study. The electronic physiological surveillance system improved the accuracy of vital sign recording, 98.5% versus 85.6%, P < .02, Pediatric Early Warning Score calculation, 94.6% versus 55.7%, P < .02, and saved time, 68 versus 98 seconds, compared with paper-based documentation, P < .002. Twenty-nine staff completed the Web-based survey. They perceived that the electronic physiological surveillance system offered safety benefits by reducing human error while providing instant visibility of recorded data to the entire clinical team

DNA methylation and body mass index from birth to adolescence : meta-analyses of epigenome-wide association studies

Background DNA methylation has been shown to be associated with adiposity in adulthood. However, whether similar DNA methylation patterns are associated with childhood and adolescent body mass index (BMI) is largely unknown. More insight into this relationship at younger ages may have implications for future prevention of obesity and its related traits. Methods We examined whether DNA methylation in cord blood and whole blood in childhood and adolescence was associated with BMI in the age range from 2 to 18 years using both cross-sectional and longitudinal models. We performed meta-analyses of epigenome-wide association studies including up to 4133 children from 23 studies. We examined the overlap of findings reported in previous studies in children and adults with those in our analyses and calculated enrichment. Results DNA methylation at three CpGs (cg05937453, cg25212453, and cg10040131), each in a different age range, was associated with BMI at Bonferroni significance, P <1.06 x 10(-7), with a 0.96 standard deviation score (SDS) (standard error (SE) 0.17), 0.32 SDS (SE 0.06), and 0.32 BMI SDS (SE 0.06) higher BMI per 10% increase in methylation, respectively. DNA methylation at nine additional CpGs in the cross-sectional childhood model was associated with BMI at false discovery rate significance. The strength of the associations of DNA methylation at the 187 CpGs previously identified to be associated with adult BMI, increased with advancing age across childhood and adolescence in our analyses. In addition, correlation coefficients between effect estimates for those CpGs in adults and in children and adolescents also increased. Among the top findings for each age range, we observed increasing enrichment for the CpGs that were previously identified in adults (birth P-enrichment = 1; childhood P-enrichment = 2.00 x 10(-4); adolescence P-enrichment = 2.10 x 10(-7)). Conclusions There were only minimal associations of DNA methylation with childhood and adolescent BMI. With the advancing age of the participants across childhood and adolescence, we observed increasing overlap with altered DNA methylation loci reported in association with adult BMI. These findings may be compatible with the hypothesis that DNA methylation differences are mostly a consequence rather than a cause of obesity.Peer reviewe

Climate variables and oxygen isotope ratio in precipitation extracted at speleothem sites for three iHadCM3 climate model simulations over the last millennium (810CE-1850CE)

Here we provide time series of three isotope-enabled model simulations of the iHadCM3 Model in supplement to Bühler et al. (2021). Simulation output was extracted at SISAL v.2. sites for the last millennium (810-1850CE). The spatial resolution in the atmosphere is 2.5 by 3.75 degrees in the horizontal with 19 vertical levels, and 1.25 by 1.25 degrees in the ocean, with 20 irregularly spaced vertical levels. Details of the isotope-enabled model extension can be found in Tindall et al. (2009). The model simulations were performed with constant orbital forcing, and time-varying prescribed land cover changes, solar irradiance, volcanic aerosol optical depth and greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, NO2). Changes in greenhouse gas forcings occur 50 years earlier than other forcings, which should not cause issues in interpretation due to the absence of large trends prior to 1800. We provide output for surface temperature, total precipitation and the precipitation-weighted oxygen isotope ratio extracted by bilinear interpolation at the cave site. To facilitate comparisons we provide both the temporally aggregated output (i.e. model output aggregated to the same temporal resolution as the speleothem data) as well as annual means

Contrasting State‐Dependent Effects of Natural Forcing on Global and Local Climate Variability

Natural forcing from solar and volcanic activity contributes significantly to climate variability. The post‐eruption cooling of strong volcanic eruptions was hypothesized to have led to millennial‐scale variability during Glacials. Cooling induced by volcanic eruption is potentially weaker in the warmer climate. The underlying question is whether the climatic response to natural forcing is state‐dependent. Here, we quantify the response to natural forcing under Last Glacial and Pre‐Industrial conditions in an ensemble of climate model simulations. We evaluate internal and forced variability on annual to multicentennial scales. The global temperature response reveals no state dependency. Small local differences result mainly from state‐dependent sea ice changes. Variability in forced simulations matches paleoclimate reconstructions significantly better than in unforced scenarios. Considering natural forcing is therefore important for model‐data comparison and future projections.Plain Language Summary: Climate variability describes the spatial and temporal variations of Earth's climate. Understanding these variations is important for estimating the occurrence of extreme climate events such as droughts. Yet, it is unclear whether climate variability depends on the mean surface temperature of the Earth or not. Here, we investigate the effects of natural forcing from volcanic eruptions and solar activity changes on climate variability. We compare simulations of a past (cold) and present (warm) climate with and without volcanism and solar changes. We find that overall, the climate system responds similarly to natural forcing in the cold and warm state. Small local differences mainly occur where ice can form. To evaluate the simulated variability, we use data from paleoclimate archives, including trees, ice‐cores, and marine sediments. Climate variability from forced simulations agrees better with the temperature variability obtained from data. Natural forcing is therefore critical for reliable simulation of variability in past and future climates.Key Points: We present Glacial/Interglacial climate simulations and quantify effects of time‐varying volcanic and solar forcing on climate variability. The mean global and local response to these forcings is similar in Glacial and Interglacial climate, suggesting low state dependency. In both climate states, modeled temperature variance agrees better with palaeoclimate data when volcanic and solar forcing is included.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659Heinrich Böll Stiftung (Heinrich Böll Foundation) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100009379Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6074747https://github.com/paleovar/StateDependencyhttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.647476

Reconstructing paleosalinity from δ18O: coupled model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum, Last Interglacial and Late Holocene

Reconstructions of salinity are used to diagnose changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean circulation. A widely used method of determining past salinity uses oxygen isotope (δOw) residuals after the extraction of the global ice volume and temperature components. This method relies on a constant relationship between δOw and salinity throughout time. Here we use the isotope-enabled fully coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) HadCM3 to test the application of spatially and time-independent relationships in the reconstruction of past ocean salinity. Simulations of the Late Holocene (LH), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Last Interglacial (LIG) climates are performed and benchmarked against existing compilations of stable oxygen isotopes in carbonates (δOc), which primarily reflect δOw and temperature. We find that HadCM3 produces an accurate representation of the surface ocean δOc distribution for the LH and LGM. Our simulations show considerable variability in spatial and temporal δOw-salinity relationships. Spatial gradients are generally shallower but within ∼50% of the actual simulated LH to LGM and LH to LIG temporal gradients and temporal gradients calculated from multi-decadal variability are generally shallower than both spatial and actual simulated gradients. The largest sources of uncertainty in salinity reconstructions are found to be caused by changes in regional freshwater budgets, ocean circulation, and sea ice regimes. These can cause errors in salinity estimates exceeding 4 psu. Our results suggest that paleosalinity reconstructions in the South Atlantic, Indian and Tropical Pacific Oceans should be most robust, since these regions exhibit relatively constant δOw-salinity relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Largest uncertainties will affect North Atlantic and high latitude paleosalinity reconstructions. Finally, the results show that it is difficult to generate reliable salinity estimates for regions of dynamic oceanography, such as the North Atlantic, without additional constraints