Environmental change and the phenology of European aphids

Aphids, because of their short generation time and low developmental threshold temperatures, are an insect group expected to respond particularly strongly to environmental changes. Forty years of standardized, daily data on the abundance of flying aphids have been brought together from countries throughout Europe, through the EU Thematic Network 'EXAMINE'. Relationships between phenology, represented by date of first appearance in a year in a suction trap, of 29 aphid species and environmental data have been quantified using the residual maximum likelihood (REML) methodology. These relationships have been used with climate change scenario data to suggest plausible changes in aphid phenology. In general, the date of first record of aphid species in suction traps is expected to advance, the rate of advance varying with location and species, but averaging 8 days over the next 50 years. Strong relationships between aphid phenology and environmental variables have been found for many species, but they are notably weaker in species living all year on trees. Canonical variate analysis and principal coordinate analysis were used to determine ordinations of the 29 species on the basis of the presence/absence of explanatory variables in the REML models. There was strong discrimination between species with different life cycle strategies and between species feeding on herbs and trees, suggesting the possible value of trait-based groupings in predicting responses to environmental changes

Effects of temperature on aphid phenology

Daily samples between 1964 and 1991 from suction traps throughout Great Britain were used to study the migration phenologies of five aphid species: Brachycaudus helichrysi, Elatobium abietinum, Metopolophium dirhodum, Myzus persicae and Sitobion avenae, and their relationship with temperature. Regression relationships have been established between characteristics of aphid phenology and temperature, latitude and longitude for each species. There were differences between species in the period for which temperature was most strongly associated with aphid phenology. The study indicates that temperature, especially winter temperature, is the dominant factor affecting aphid phenology, for all five species. A 1 degrees C increase in average winter temperature advanced the migration phenology by 4-19 days depending on species. Effects of temperature on the aphid phenology are similar between holocyclic and anholocyclic species, unlike the effects of temperature on date of first flight record which have been previously shown to be important only in anholocyclic species