Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Self-organization of developing embryo using scale-invariant approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Self-organization is a fundamental feature of living organisms at all hierarchical levels from molecule to organ. It has also been documented in developing embryos.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this study, a scale-invariant power law (SIPL) method has been used to study self-organization in developing embryos. The SIPL coefficient was calculated using a centro-axial skew symmetrical matrix (CSSM) generated by entering the components of the Cartesian coordinates; for each component, one CSSM was generated. A basic square matrix (BSM) was constructed and the determinant was calculated in order to estimate the SIPL coefficient. This was applied to developing <it>C. elegans </it>during early stages of embryogenesis. The power law property of the method was evaluated using the straight line and Koch curve and the results were consistent with fractal dimensions (fd). Diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) was used to validate the SIPL method.</p> <p>Results and conclusion</p> <p>The fractal dimensions of both the straight line and Koch curve showed consistency with the SIPL coefficients, which indicated the power law behavior of the SIPL method. The results showed that the ABp sublineage had a higher SIPL coefficient than EMS, indicating that ABp is more organized than EMS. The fd determined using DLA was higher in ABp than in EMS and its value was consistent with type 1 cluster formation, while that in EMS was consistent with type 2.</p

Aquaporin water channels in the nervous system.

The aquaporins (AQPs) are plasma membrane water-transporting proteins. AQP4 is the principal member of this protein family in the CNS, where it is expressed in astrocytes and is involved in water movement, cell migration and neuroexcitation. AQP1 is expressed in the choroid plexus, where it facilitates cerebrospinal fluid secretion, and in dorsal root ganglion neurons, where it tunes pain perception. The AQPs are potential drug targets for several neurological conditions. Astrocytoma cells strongly express AQP4, which may facilitate their infiltration into the brain, and the neuroinflammatory disease neuromyelitis optica is caused by AQP4-specific autoantibodies that produce complement-mediated astrocytic damage

A research agenda to improve incidence and outcomes of assisted vaginal birth.

Access to emergency obstetric care, including assisted vaginal birth and caesarean birth, is crucial for improving maternal and childbirth outcomes. However, although the proportion of births by caesarean section has increased during the last few decades, the use of assisted vaginal birth has declined. This is particularly the case in low- and middle-income countries, despite an assisted vaginal birth often being less risky than caesarean birth. We therefore conducted a three-step process to identify a research agenda necessary to increase the use of, or reintroduce, assisted vaginal birth: after conducting an evidence synthesis, which informed a consultation with technical experts who proposed an initial research agenda, we sought and incorporated the views of women's representatives of this agenda. This process has allowed us to identify a comprehensive research agenda, with topics categorized as: (i) the need to understand women's perceptions of assisted vaginal birth, and provide appropriate and reliable information; (ii) the importance of training health-care providers in clinical skills but also in respectful care, effective communication, shared decision-making and informed consent; and (iii) the barriers to and facilitators of implementation and sustainability. From women's feedback, we learned of the urgent need to recognize labour, childbirth and postpartum experiences as inherently physiological and dignified human processes, in which interventions should only be implemented if necessary. The promotion and/or reintroduction of assisted vaginal birth in low-resource settings requires governments, policy-makers and hospital administrators to support skilled health-care providers who can, in turn, respectfully support women in labour and childbirth

Global, regional, and national levels of maternal mortality, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background In transitioning from the Millennium Development Goal to the Sustainable Development Goal era, it is imperative to comprehensively assess progress toward reducing maternal mortality to identify areas of success, remaining challenges, and frame policy discussions. We aimed to quantify maternal mortality throughout the world by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated maternal mortality at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2015 for ages 10-54 years by systematically compiling and processing all available data sources from 186 of 195 countries and territories, 11 of which were analysed at the subnational level. We quantified eight underlying causes of maternal death and four timing categories, improving estimation methods since GBD 2013 for adult all-cause mortality, HIV-related maternal mortality, and late maternal death. Secondary analyses then allowed systematic examination of drivers of trends, including the relation between maternal mortality and coverage of specific reproductive health-care services as well as assessment of observed versus expected maternal mortality as a function of Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Findings Only ten countries achieved MDG 5, but 122 of 195 countries have already met SDG 3.1. Geographical disparities widened between 1990 and 2015 and, in 2015, 24 countries still had a maternal mortality ratio greater than 400. The proportion of all maternal deaths occurring in the bottom two SDI quintiles, where haemorrhage is the dominant cause of maternal death, increased from roughly 68% in 1990 to more than 80% in 2015. The middle SDI quintile improved the most from 1990 to 2015, but also has the most complicated causal profile. Maternal mortality in the highest SDI quintile is mostly due to other direct maternal disorders, indirect maternal disorders, and abortion, ectopic pregnancy, and/or miscarriage. Historical patterns suggest achievement of SDG 3.1 will require 91% coverage of one antenatal care visit, 78% of four antenatal care visits, 81% of in-facility delivery, and 87% of skilled birth attendance. Interpretation Several challenges to improving reproductive health lie ahead in the SDG era. Countries should establish or renew systems for collection and timely dissemination of health data; expand coverage and improve quality of family planning services, including access to contraception and safe abortion to address high adolescent fertility; invest in improving health system capacity, including coverage of routine reproductive health care and of more advanced obstetric care-including EmOC; adapt health systems and data collection systems to monitor and reverse the increase in indirect, other direct, and late maternal deaths, especially in high SDI locations; and examine their own performance with respect to their SDI level, using that information to formulate strategies to improve performance and ensure optimum reproductive health of their population.Peer reviewe

A global experiment on motivating social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic

Significance Communicating in ways that motivate engagement in social distancing remains a critical global public health priority during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study tested motivational qualities of messages about social distancing (those that promoted choice and agency vs. those that were forceful and shaming) in 25,718 people in 89 countries. The autonomy-supportive message decreased feelings of defying social distancing recommendations relative to the controlling message, and the controlling message increased controlled motivation, a less effective form of motivation, relative to no message. Message type did not impact intentions to socially distance, but people’s existing motivations were related to intentions. Findings were generalizable across a geographically diverse sample and may inform public health communication strategies in this and future global health emergencies. Abstract Finding communication strategies that effectively motivate social distancing continues to be a global public health priority during the COVID-19 pandemic. This cross-country, preregistered experiment (n = 25,718 from 89 countries) tested hypotheses concerning generalizable positive and negative outcomes of social distancing messages that promoted personal agency and reflective choices (i.e., an autonomy-supportive message) or were restrictive and shaming (i.e., a controlling message) compared with no message at all. Results partially supported experimental hypotheses in that the controlling message increased controlled motivation (a poorly internalized form of motivation relying on shame, guilt, and fear of social consequences) relative to no message. On the other hand, the autonomy-supportive message lowered feelings of defiance compared with the controlling message, but the controlling message did not differ from receiving no message at all. Unexpectedly, messages did not influence autonomous motivation (a highly internalized form of motivation relying on one’s core values) or behavioral intentions. Results supported hypothesized associations between people’s existing autonomous and controlled motivations and self-reported behavioral intentions to engage in social distancing. Controlled motivation was associated with more defiance and less long-term behavioral intention to engage in social distancing, whereas autonomous motivation was associated with less defiance and more short- and long-term intentions to social distance. Overall, this work highlights the potential harm of using shaming and pressuring language in public health communication, with implications for the current and future global health challenges

Hormone-dependent bacterial growth, persistence and biofilm formation - a pilot study investigating human follicular fluid collected during IVF cycles

Human follicular fluid, considered sterile, is aspirated as part of an in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycle. However, it is easily contaminated by the trans-vaginal collection route and little information exists in its potential to support the growth of microorganisms. The objectives of this study were to determine whether human follicular fluid can support bacterial growth over time, whether the steroid hormones estradiol and progesterone (present at high levels within follicular fluid) contribute to the in vitro growth of bacterial species, and whether species isolated from follicular fluid form biofilms. We found that bacteria in follicular fluid could persist for at least 28 weeks in vitro and that the steroid hormones stimulated the growth of some bacterial species, specifically Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp. Streptococcus spp. and E. coli. Several species, Lactobacillus spp., Propionibacterium spp., and Streptococcus spp., formed biofilms when incubated in native follicular fluids in vitro (18/24, 75%). We conclude that bacteria aspirated along with follicular fluid during IVF cycles demonstrate a persistent pattern of growth. This discovery is important since it can offer a new avenue for investigation in infertile couples

Feasibility and effectiveness of a disease and care management model in the primary healthcare system for patients with hearth failure and diabetes. (Project Leonardo)

PURPOSE: Project Leonardo represented a feasibility study to evaluate the impact of a disease and care management (D&CM) model and of the introduction of "care manager" nurses, trained in this specialized role, into the primary health care system. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Thirty care managers were placed into the offices of 83 general practitioners and family physicians in the Apulia Region of Italy with the purpose of creating a strong cooperative and collaborative "team" consisting of physicians, care managers, specialists, and patients. The central aim of the health team collaboration was to empower 1,160 patients living with cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, heart failure, and/or at risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD risk) to take a more active role in their health. With the support of dedicated software for data collection and care management decision making, Project Leonardo implemented guidelines and recommendations for each condition aimed to improve patient health outcomes and promote appropriate resource utilization. RESULTS: Results show that Leonardo was feasible and highly effective in increasing patient health knowledge, self-management skills, and readiness to make changes in health behaviors. Patient skill-building and ongoing monitoring by the health care team of diagnostic tests and services as well as treatment paths helped promote confidence and enhance safety of chronic patient management at home. CONCLUSION: Physicians, care managers, and patients showed unanimous agreement regarding the positive impact on patient health and self-management, and attributed the outcomes to the strong "partnership" between the care manager and the patient and the collaboration between the physician and the care manager. Future studies should consider the possibility of incorporating a patient empowerment model which considers the patient as the most important member of the health team and care managers as key health care collaborators able to enhance and support services to patients provided by physicians in the primary health care system

Phenomenological analysis of the dynamics of cryoaggregation by light-scattering spectrometry.

Cryoglobulins are proteins that precipitate at temperatures below 37 degreesC. Coldinduced precipitation of proteins may occur in vivo secondary to several important diseases, and lead to pathological manifestations involving different organs. Cryoprecipitation may be observed in vitro by exposing serum samples, supposed to contain cryoglobulins, to low temperatures, but this needs several days to occur. Proteinprotein interactions leading to cryoprecipitation are still poorly understood and the knowledge of the underlying mechanism may be relevant to the understanding of the onset of pathological manifestations. Using lightscattering spectrometry, we studied cryoprecipitation occurring in vitro at different temperatures and cryoglobulin concentrations. We describe the kinetics of the coldinduced precipitation of mixed cryoglobulins, measured as increase in turbidity. The plots obtained demonstrate that the cryoprecipitation did not occur as a singlestep reaction, but consisted of four distinct phases where both temperature and cryoglobulin concentration affected the immune complexes formation. Light scatter spectrometry may provide a simple, sensitive and rapid method for the detection of cryoglobulin