432 research outputs found
Confidence Intervals for the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve in the Presence of Ignorable Missing Data
Receiver operating characteristic curves are widely used as a measure of accuracy of diagnostic tests and can be summarised using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Often, it is useful to construct a confidence interval for the AUC; however, because there are a number of different proposed methods to measure variance of the AUC, there are thus many different resulting methods for constructing these intervals. In this article, we compare different methods of constructing Wald‐type confidence interval in the presence of missing data where the missingness mechanism is ignorable. We find that constructing confidence intervals using multiple imputation based on logistic regression gives the most robust coverage probability and the choice of confidence interval method is less important. However, when missingness rate is less severe (e.g. less than 70%), we recommend using Newcombe\u27s Wald method for constructing confidence intervals along with multiple imputation using predictive mean matching
The predictive receiver operating characteristic curve for the joint assessment of the positive and negative predictive values
Binary test outcomes typically result from dichotomizing a continuous test variable, observable or latent. The effect of the threshold for test positivity on test sensitivity and specificity has been studied extensively in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. However, considerably less attention has been given to the study of the effect of the positivity threshold on the predictive value of a test. In this paper we present methods for the joint study of the positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of diagnostic tests. We define the predictive receiver operating characteristic (PROC) curve that consists of all possible pairs of PPV and NPV as the threshold for test positivity varies. Unlike the simple trade-off between sensitivity and specificity exhibited in the ROC curve, the PROC curve displays what is often a complex interplay between PPV and NPV as the positivity threshold changes. We study the monotonicity and other geometric properties of the PROC curve and propose summary measures for the predictive performance of tests. We also formulate and discuss regression models for the estimation of the effects of covariates
A measurement of lifetime differences in the neutral D-meson system
Using a high statistics sample of photoproduced charm particles from the
FOCUS experiment at Fermilab, we compare the lifetimes of neutral D mesons
decaying via D0 to K- pi+ and K- K+ to measure the lifetime differences between
CP even and CP odd final states. These measurements bear on the phenomenology
of D0 - D0bar mixing. If the D0 to K-pi+ is an equal mixture of CP even and CP
odd eigenstates, we measure yCP = 0.0342 \pm 0.0139 \pm 0.0074.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure
Search for CP violation in D0 and D+ decays
A high statistics sample of photoproduced charm particles from the FOCUS
(E831) experiment at Fermilab has been used to search for CP violation in the
Cabibbo suppressed decay modes D+ to K-K+pi+, D0 to K-K+ and D0 to pi-pi+. We
have measured the following CP asymmetry parameters: A_CP(K-K+pi+) = +0.006 +/-
0.011 +/- 0.005, A_CP(K-K+) = -0.001 +/- 0.022 +/- 0.015 and A_CP(pi-pi+) =
+0.048 +/- 0.039 +/- 0.025 where the first error is statistical and the second
error is systematic. These asymmetries are consistent with zero with smaller
errors than previous measurements.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure
Measurements of the Sigma_c^0 and Sigma_c^{++} Mass Splittings
Using a high statistics sample of photoproduced charmed particles from the
FOCUS experiment at Fermilab (FNAL-E831), we measure the mass splittings of the
charmed baryons Sigma_c^0 and Sigma_c^{++}. We find M(Sigma_c^0 - Lambda_c^+) =
167.38 +/- 0.21 +/- 0.13 MeV/c^2 and M(Sigma_c^++ - Lambda_c^+) = 167.35 +/-
0.19 +/- 0.12 MeV/c^2 with samples of 362 +/- 36 and 461 +/- 39 events,
respectively. We measure the isospin mass splitting M(Sigma_c^++ - Sigma_c^0)
to be -0.03 +/- 0.28 +/- 0.11 Mev/c^2. The first errors are statistical and the
second are systematic.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure
High-contrast imaging constraints on gas giant planet formation - The Herbig Ae/Be star opportunity
Planet formation studies are often focused on solar-type stars, implicitly
considering our Sun as reference point. This approach overlooks, however, that
Herbig Ae/Be stars are in some sense much better targets to study planet
formation processes empirically, with their disks generally being larger,
brighter and simply easier to observe across a large wavelength range. In
addition, massive gas giant planets have been found on wide orbits around early
type stars, triggering the question if these objects did indeed form there and,
if so, by what process. In the following I briefly review what we currently
know about the occurrence rate of planets around intermediate mass stars,
before discussing recent results from Herbig Ae/Be stars in the context of
planet formation. The main emphasis is put on spatially resolved polarized
light images of potentially planet forming disks and how these images - in
combination with other data - can be used to empirically constrain (parts of)
the planet formation process. Of particular interest are two objects, HD100546
and HD169142, where, in addition to intriguing morphological structures in the
disks, direct observational evidence for (very) young planets has been
reported. I conclude with an outlook, what further progress we can expect in
the very near future with the next generation of high-contrast imagers at 8-m
class telescopes and their synergies with ALMA.Comment: Accepted by Astrophysics and Space Science as invited short review in
special issue about Herbig Ae/Be stars; 12 pages incl. 5 figures, 2 tables
and reference
Constraints on Dark Matter Annihilation in Clusters of Galaxies with the Fermi Large Area Telescope
Nearby clusters and groups of galaxies are potentially bright sources of
high-energy gamma-ray emission resulting from the pair-annihilation of dark
matter particles. However, no significant gamma-ray emission has been detected
so far from clusters in the first 11 months of observations with the Fermi
Large Area Telescope. We interpret this non-detection in terms of constraints
on dark matter particle properties. In particular for leptonic annihilation
final states and particle masses greater than ~200 GeV, gamma-ray emission from
inverse Compton scattering of CMB photons is expected to dominate the dark
matter annihilation signal from clusters, and our gamma-ray limits exclude
large regions of the parameter space that would give a good fit to the recent
anomalous Pamela and Fermi-LAT electron-positron measurements. We also present
constraints on the annihilation of more standard dark matter candidates, such
as the lightest neutralino of supersymmetric models. The constraints are
particularly strong when including the fact that clusters are known to contain
substructure at least on galaxy scales, increasing the expected gamma-ray flux
by a factor of ~5 over a smooth-halo assumption. We also explore the effect of
uncertainties in cluster dark matter density profiles, finding a systematic
uncertainty in the constraints of roughly a factor of two, but similar overall
conclusions. In this work, we focus on deriving limits on dark matter models; a
more general consideration of the Fermi-LAT data on clusters and clusters as
gamma-ray sources is forthcoming.Comment: accepted to JCAP, Corresponding authors: T.E. Jeltema and S. Profumo,
minor revisions to be consistent with accepted versio
Atmospheric effects on extensive air showers observed with the Surface Detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory
Atmospheric parameters, such as pressure (P), temperature (T) and density,
affect the development of extensive air showers initiated by energetic cosmic
rays. We have studied the impact of atmospheric variations on extensive air
showers by means of the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The
rate of events shows a ~10% seasonal modulation and ~2% diurnal one. We find
that the observed behaviour is explained by a model including the effects
associated with the variations of pressure and density. The former affects the
longitudinal development of air showers while the latter influences the Moliere
radius and hence the lateral distribution of the shower particles. The model is
validated with full simulations of extensive air showers using atmospheric
profiles measured at the site of the Pierre Auger Observatory.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Astroparticle
Physic
Update on the correlation of the highest energy cosmic rays with nearby extragalactic matter
Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory through 31 August 2007 showed
evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above the
Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz'min energy threshold, \nobreak{eV}. The
anisotropy was measured by the fraction of arrival directions that are less
than from the position of an active galactic nucleus within 75 Mpc
(using the V\'eron-Cetty and V\'eron catalog). An updated
measurement of this fraction is reported here using the arrival directions of
cosmic rays recorded above the same energy threshold through 31 December 2009.
The number of arrival directions has increased from 27 to 69, allowing a more
precise measurement. The correlating fraction is , compared
with expected for isotropic cosmic rays. This is down from the early
estimate of . The enlarged set of arrival directions is
examined also in relation to other populations of nearby extragalactic objects:
galaxies in the 2 Microns All Sky Survey and active galactic nuclei detected in
hard X-rays by the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. A celestial region around the
position of the radiogalaxy Cen A has the largest excess of arrival directions
relative to isotropic expectations. The 2-point autocorrelation function is
shown for the enlarged set of arrival directions and compared to the isotropic
expectation.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physics on 31 August 201
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