Subseasonal to decadal prediction: Filling the weather–climate gap

* This essay stems from international conferences on subseasonal to seasonal and seasonal to decadal prediction jointly convened by WWRP and WCRP in September 2018 in Boulder, Colorado: (www.wcrp-climate.org/s2s-s2d-2018-home). Adapted from “Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction,”. Published Online in BAMS, June 2020. For the full, citable article, see DOI:10.1175 /BAMS-D-19-0037.1.© Copyright 2020 American Meteorological Society (AMS). For permission to reuse any portion of this Work, please contact [email protected]. Any use of material in this Work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 U.S. Code § 107) or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC § 108) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (https://www.copyright.com). Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (https://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy).Tremendous recent progress in climate prediction on subseasonal to decadal time scales has been enabled by better observations, data assimilation, and models originating from the weather prediction and climate simulation communities together with ever-increasing computational power. World Climate Research Program (WCRP) efforts led initially to predictions one to two seasons ahead becoming part of the WMO operational infrastructure. More recently, a joint World Weather Research Program (WWRP) and WCRP Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project has started tackling the weather–climate gap (from two weeks to a season). The NOAA-led Subseasonal Experiment project has similar aims. New frontiers have been enabled by Earth system models that represent the carbon and other biogeochemical cycles in addition to the physical climate system. As a result, skillful multiyear prediction is likely achievable for biogeochemical and ecological Earth system components. The ultimate collective subseasonal to seasonal (S2S; 2 weeks to season) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) endeavor is to improve the prediction of the spatial–temporal continuum connecting weather to climate through a coordinated, seamless, and integrated Earth system approach. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. This essay* synthesizes those commonalities across time scales and Earth system components, and from basic research to operational delivery.Peer ReviewedArticle signat per 65 autors/es: William J. Merryfield, Johanna Baehr, Lauriane Batté, Emily J. Becker, Amy H. Butler, Caio A. S. Coelho, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Ferranti, Tatiana Ilynia, Arun Kumar, Wolfgang A. Müller, Michel Rixen, Andrew W. Robertson, Doug M. Smith, Yuhei Takaya, Matthias Tuma, Frederic Vitart, Christopher J. White, Mariano S. Alvarez, Constantin Ardilouze, Hannah Attard, Cory Baggett, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Asmerom F. Beraki, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Roberto Bilbao, Felipe M. de Andrade, Michael J. DeFlorio, Leandro B. Díaz, Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Sam Grainger, Benjamin W. Green, Momme C. Hell, Johnna M. Infanti, Katharina Isensee, Takahito Kataoka, Ben P. Kirtman, Nicholas P. Klingaman, June-Yi Lee, Kirsten Mayer, Roseanna McKay, Jennifer V. Mecking, Douglas E. Miller, Nele Neddermann, Ching Ho Justin Ng, Albert Ossó, Klaus Pankatz, Simon Peatman, Kathy Pegion, Judith Perlwitz, G. Cristina Recalde-Coronel, Annika Reintges, Christoph Renkl, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Aaron Spring, Cristiana Stan, Y. Qiang Sun, Carly R. Tozer, Nicolas Vigaud, Steven Woolnough, and Stephen Yeager.Postprint (published version

Multi-model assessment of the late-winter extra-tropical response to El Niño and La Niña

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to affect the Northern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in late-winter (January-March), but whether El Niño and La Niña lead to symmetric impacts and with the same underlying dynamics remains unclear, particularly in the North Atlantic. Three state-of-the-art atmospheric models forced by symmetric anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, mimicking strong ENSO events, are used to robustly diagnose symmetries and asymmetries in the extra-tropical ENSO response. Asymmetries arise in the sea-level pressure (SLP) response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, as the response to La Niña tends to be weaker and shifted westward with respect to that of El Niño. The difference in amplitude can be traced back to the distinct energy available for the two ENSO phases associated with the non-linear diabatic heating response to the total SST field. The longitudinal shift is embedded into the large-scale Rossby wave train triggered from the tropical Pacific, as its anomalies in the upper troposphere show a similar westward displacement in La Niña compared to El Niño. To fully explain this shift, the response in tropical convection and the related anomalous upper-level divergence have to be considered together with the climatological vorticity gradient of the subtropical jet, i.e. diagnosing the tropical Rossby wave source. In the North Atlantic, the ENSO-forced SLP signal is a well-known dipole between middle and high latitudes, different from the North Atlantic Oscillation, whose asymmetry is not indicative of distinct mechanisms driving the teleconnection for El Niño and La Niña

Current status of MEDSCOPE CS-Tools

Presentación realizada en: 13º Mediterranean Climate Outlook Forum (MedCOF) celebrado de forma online entre el 15 de octubre y el 26 de noviembre de 2019

Using EC-Earth for climate prediction research

Climate prediction at the subseasonal to interannual time range is now performed routinely and operationally by an increasing number of institutions. The feasibility of climate prediction largely depends on the existence of slow and predictable variations in the ocean surface temperature, sea ice, soil moisture and snow cover, and on our ability to model the atmosphere’s interactions with those variables. Climate prediction is typically performed with statistical-empirical or process-based models. The two methods are complementary. Although forecasting systems using global climate models (GCMs) have made substantial progress in the last few decades (Doblas-Reyes et al., 2013), systematic errors and misrepresentations of key processes still limit the value of dynamical prediction in certain areas of the globe. At the same time, model initialisation, ensemble generation, understanding the processes at the origin of predictability, forecasting extremes, bias adjustment and model evaluation are all challenging aspects of the climate prediction problem. Addressing them requires both a large base of researchers with expertise in physics, mathematics, statistics, high-performance computing and data analysis interested in climate prediction issues and a tool for them to work with. This article illustrates how one of these tools, the EC-Earth climate model (Box A), has been used to train scientists in climate prediction and to address scientific challenges in this field. The use of model components from ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) in EC-Earth means that some of the results obtained with EC-Earth can feed back into ECMWF’s activities. EC-Earth has been run extensively on ECMWF’s high-performance computing facility (HPCF), among a range of HPCFs across Europe and North America. The availability of ECMWF’s HPCF to EC-Earth partners, including the use of the successful ECMWF Special Project programme, means that a substantial amount of EC-Earth’s collaborative work, both within the consortium and with ECMWF, takes place on this platform.Postprint (published version

CSTools: a new R package for the calibration, combination, downscaling and analysis of seasonal forecasts

Póster presentado en: EGU General Assembly 2019 celebrada del 7 al 12 de abril en Viena, Austria.MEDSCOPE is co-funded by the H2020 ERA-Net ERA4CS European Research Area for Climate Services (Grant 690462)

Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction

Weather and climate variations of subseasonal to decadal timescales can have enormous social, economic and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these timescales a valuable tool for decision makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) timescales, while the focus remains broadly similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper ocean temperatures and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal and externally-forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correct, calibration and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Prograame (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis

Ensemble predictions at the seasonal time scale : implementation of a stochastic dynamics technique

La prévision d'ensemble à l'échelle saisonnière avec des modèles de circulation générale a connu un essor certain au cours des vingt dernières années avec la croissance exponentielle des capacités de calcul, l'amélioration de la résolution des modèles, et l'introduction progressive dans ceux-ci des différentes composantes (océan, atmosphère, surfaces continentales et glace de mer) régissant l'évolution du climat à cette échelle. Malgré ces efforts, prévoir la température et les précipitations de la saison à venir reste délicat, non seulement sur les latitudes tempérées mais aussi sur des régions sujettes à des aléas climatiques forts comme l'Afrique de l'ouest pendant la saison de mousson. L'une des clés d'une bonne prévision est la prise en compte des incertitudes liées à la formulation des modèles (résolution, paramétrisations, approximations et erreurs). Une méthode éprouvée est l'approche multi-modèle consistant à regrouper les membres de plusieurs modèles couplés en un seul ensemble de grande taille. Cette approche a été mise en œuvre notamment dans le cadre du projet européen ENSEMBLES, et nous montrons qu'elle permet généralement d'améliorer les rétro-prévisions saisonnières des précipitations sur plusieurs régions d'Afrique par rapport aux modèles pris individuellement. On se propose dans le cadre de cette thèse d'étudier une autre piste de prise en compte des incertitudes du modèle couplé CNRM-CM5, consistant à ajouter des perturbations stochastiques de la dynamique du modèle d'atmosphère ARPEGE-Climat. Cette méthode, baptisée “dynamique stochastique”, consiste à introduire des perturbations additives de température, humidité spécifique et vorticité corrigeant des estimations d'erreur de tendance initiale du modèle. Dans cette thèse, deux méthodes d'estimation des erreurs de tendance initiale ont été étudiées, basées sur la méthode de nudging (guidage) du modèle vers des données de référence. Elles donnent des résultats contrastés en termes de scores des rétro-prévisions selon les régions étudiées. Si on estime les corrections d'erreur de tendance initiale par une méthode de nudging itéré du modèle couplé vers les réanalyses ERA-Interim, on améliore significativement les scores sur l'hémisphère Nord en hiver en perturbant les prévisions saisonnières en tirant aléatoirement parmi ces corrections. Cette amélioration est accompagnée d'une nette réduction des biais de la hauteur de géopotentiel à 500 hPa. Une rétro-prévision en utilisant des perturbations dites“optimales” correspondant aux corrections d'erreurs de tendance initiale du mois en cours de prévision montre l'existence d'une information à l'échelle mensuelle qui pourrait permettre de considérablement améliorer les prévisions. La dernière partie de cette thèse explore l'idée d'un conditionnement des perturbations en fonction de l'état du modèle en cours de prévision, afin de se rapprocher si possible des améliorations obtenues avec ces perturbations optimalesOver the last twenty years, research in ensemble predictions at a seasonal timescale using general circulation models has undergone a considerable development due to the exponential growth rate of computing capacities, the improved model resolution and the introduction of more and more components (ocean, atmosphere, land surface and sea-ice) that have an impact on climate at this time scale. Regardless of these efforts, predicting temperature and precipitation for the upcoming season is a difficult task, not only over mid-latitudes but also over regions subject to high climate risk, like West Africa during the monsoon season. One key to improving predictions is to represent model uncertainties (due to resolution, parametrizations, approximations and model error). The multimodel approach is a well-tried method which consists in pooling members from different individual coupled models into a single superensemble. This approach was undertaken as part of the European Commission funded ENSEMBLES project, and we find that it usually improves seasonal precipitation re-forecasts over several regions of Africa with respect to individual model predictions. The main goal of this thesis is to study another approach to addressing model uncertainty in the global coupled model CNRM-CM5, by adding stochastic perturbations to the dynamics of the atmospheric model ARPEGE-Climat. Our method, called “stochastic dynamics”, consists in adding additive perturbations to the temperature, specific humidity and vorticity fields, thus correcting estimations of model initial tendency errors. In this thesis, two initial tendency error estimation techniques were studied, based on nudging the model towards reference data. They yield different results in terms of re-forecast scores, depending on the regions studied. If the initial tendency error corrections are estimated using an iterative nudging method towards the ERA-Interim reanalysis, seasonal prediction scores over the Northern Hemisphere in winter are significantly improved by drawing random corrections. The 500 hPa geopotential height is also clearly reduced. A re-forecast using “optimal” perturbations drawn within the initial tendency error corrections from the current forecast month shows that useful information at a monthly timescale exists, and could allow significant forecast improvement. The last part of this thesis focuses on the idea of classifying the model perturbations according to its current state during the forecast, in order to take a step closer (if possible) to the improvements noted with these optimal perturbation

Prévisions d'ensemble à l'échelle saisonnière : mise en place d'une dynamique stochastique

Over the last twenty years, research in ensemble predictions at a seasonal timescale using general circulation models has undergone a considerable development due to the exponential growth rate of computing capacities, the improved model resolution and the introduction of more and more components (ocean, atmosphere, land surface and sea-ice) that have an impact on climate at this time scale. Regardless of these efforts, predicting temperature and precipitation for the upcoming season is a difficult task, not only over mid-latitudes but also over regions subject to high climate risk, like West Africa during the monsoon season. One key to improving predictions is to represent model uncertainties (due to resolution, parametrizations, approximations and model error). The multimodel approach is a well-tried method which consists in pooling members from different individual coupled models into a single superensemble. This approach was undertaken as part of the European Commission funded ENSEMBLES project, and we find that it usually improves seasonal precipitation re-forecasts over several regions of Africa with respect to individual model predictions. The main goal of this thesis is to study another approach to addressing model uncertainty in the global coupled model CNRM-CM5, by adding stochastic perturbations to the dynamics of the atmospheric model ARPEGE-Climat. Our method, called “stochastic dynamics”, consists in adding additive perturbations to the temperature, specific humidity and vorticity fields, thus correcting estimations of model initial tendency errors. In this thesis, two initial tendency error estimation techniques were studied, based on nudging the model towards reference data. They yield different results in terms of re-forecast scores, depending on the regions studied. If the initial tendency error corrections are estimated using an iterative nudging method towards the ERA-Interim reanalysis, seasonal prediction scores over the Northern Hemisphere in winter are significantly improved by drawing random corrections. The 500 hPa geopotential height is also clearly reduced. A re-forecast using “optimal” perturbations drawn within the initial tendency error corrections from the current forecast month shows that useful information at a monthly timescale exists, and could allow significant forecast improvement. The last part of this thesis focuses on the idea of classifying the model perturbations according to its current state during the forecast, in order to take a step closer (if possible) to the improvements noted with these optimal perturbationsLa prévision d'ensemble à l'échelle saisonnière avec des modèles de circulation générale a connu un essor certain au cours des vingt dernières années avec la croissance exponentielle des capacités de calcul, l'amélioration de la résolution des modèles, et l'introduction progressive dans ceux-ci des différentes composantes (océan, atmosphère, surfaces continentales et glace de mer) régissant l'évolution du climat à cette échelle. Malgré ces efforts, prévoir la température et les précipitations de la saison à venir reste délicat, non seulement sur les latitudes tempérées mais aussi sur des régions sujettes à des aléas climatiques forts comme l'Afrique de l'ouest pendant la saison de mousson. L'une des clés d'une bonne prévision est la prise en compte des incertitudes liées à la formulation des modèles (résolution, paramétrisations, approximations et erreurs). Une méthode éprouvée est l'approche multi-modèle consistant à regrouper les membres de plusieurs modèles couplés en un seul ensemble de grande taille. Cette approche a été mise en œuvre notamment dans le cadre du projet européen ENSEMBLES, et nous montrons qu'elle permet généralement d'améliorer les rétro-prévisions saisonnières des précipitations sur plusieurs régions d'Afrique par rapport aux modèles pris individuellement. On se propose dans le cadre de cette thèse d'étudier une autre piste de prise en compte des incertitudes du modèle couplé CNRM-CM5, consistant à ajouter des perturbations stochastiques de la dynamique du modèle d'atmosphère ARPEGE-Climat. Cette méthode, baptisée “dynamique stochastique”, consiste à introduire des perturbations additives de température, humidité spécifique et vorticité corrigeant des estimations d'erreur de tendance initiale du modèle. Dans cette thèse, deux méthodes d'estimation des erreurs de tendance initiale ont été étudiées, basées sur la méthode de nudging (guidage) du modèle vers des données de référence. Elles donnent des résultats contrastés en termes de scores des rétro-prévisions selon les régions étudiées. Si on estime les corrections d'erreur de tendance initiale par une méthode de nudging itéré du modèle couplé vers les réanalyses ERA-Interim, on améliore significativement les scores sur l'hémisphère Nord en hiver en perturbant les prévisions saisonnières en tirant aléatoirement parmi ces corrections. Cette amélioration est accompagnée d'une nette réduction des biais de la hauteur de géopotentiel à 500 hPa. Une rétro-prévision en utilisant des perturbations dites“optimales” correspondant aux corrections d'erreurs de tendance initiale du mois en cours de prévision montre l'existence d'une information à l'échelle mensuelle qui pourrait permettre de considérablement améliorer les prévisions. La dernière partie de cette thèse explore l'idée d'un conditionnement des perturbations en fonction de l'état du modèle en cours de prévision, afin de se rapprocher si possible des améliorations obtenues avec ces perturbations optimale

Ensemble predictions at the seasonal time scale : implementation of a stochastic dynamics technique

La prévision d'ensemble à l'échelle saisonnière avec des modèles de circulation générale a connu un essor certain au cours des vingt dernières années avec la croissance exponentielle des capacités de calcul, l'amélioration de la résolution des modèles, et l'introduction progressive dans ceux-ci des différentes composantes (océan, atmosphère, surfaces continentales et glace de mer) régissant l'évolution du climat à cette échelle. Malgré ces efforts, prévoir la température et les précipitations de la saison à venir reste délicat, non seulement sur les latitudes tempérées mais aussi sur des régions sujettes à des aléas climatiques forts comme l'Afrique de l'ouest pendant la saison de mousson. L'une des clés d'une bonne prévision est la prise en compte des incertitudes liées à la formulation des modèles (résolution, paramétrisations, approximations et erreurs). Une méthode éprouvée est l'approche multi-modèle consistant à regrouper les membres de plusieurs modèles couplés en un seul ensemble de grande taille. Cette approche a été mise en œuvre notamment dans le cadre du projet européen ENSEMBLES, et nous montrons qu'elle permet généralement d'améliorer les rétro-prévisions saisonnières des précipitations sur plusieurs régions d'Afrique par rapport aux modèles pris individuellement. On se propose dans le cadre de cette thèse d'étudier une autre piste de prise en compte des incertitudes du modèle couplé CNRM-CM5, consistant à ajouter des perturbations stochastiques de la dynamique du modèle d'atmosphère ARPEGE-Climat. Cette méthode, baptisée “dynamique stochastique”, consiste à introduire des perturbations additives de température, humidité spécifique et vorticité corrigeant des estimations d'erreur de tendance initiale du modèle. Dans cette thèse, deux méthodes d'estimation des erreurs de tendance initiale ont été étudiées, basées sur la méthode de nudging (guidage) du modèle vers des données de référence. Elles donnent des résultats contrastés en termes de scores des rétro-prévisions selon les régions étudiées. Si on estime les corrections d'erreur de tendance initiale par une méthode de nudging itéré du modèle couplé vers les réanalyses ERA-Interim, on améliore significativement les scores sur l'hémisphère Nord en hiver en perturbant les prévisions saisonnières en tirant aléatoirement parmi ces corrections. Cette amélioration est accompagnée d'une nette réduction des biais de la hauteur de géopotentiel à 500 hPa. Une rétro-prévision en utilisant des perturbations dites“optimales” correspondant aux corrections d'erreurs de tendance initiale du mois en cours de prévision montre l'existence d'une information à l'échelle mensuelle qui pourrait permettre de considérablement améliorer les prévisions. La dernière partie de cette thèse explore l'idée d'un conditionnement des perturbations en fonction de l'état du modèle en cours de prévision, afin de se rapprocher si possible des améliorations obtenues avec ces perturbations optimalesOver the last twenty years, research in ensemble predictions at a seasonal timescale using general circulation models has undergone a considerable development due to the exponential growth rate of computing capacities, the improved model resolution and the introduction of more and more components (ocean, atmosphere, land surface and sea-ice) that have an impact on climate at this time scale. Regardless of these efforts, predicting temperature and precipitation for the upcoming season is a difficult task, not only over mid-latitudes but also over regions subject to high climate risk, like West Africa during the monsoon season. One key to improving predictions is to represent model uncertainties (due to resolution, parametrizations, approximations and model error). The multimodel approach is a well-tried method which consists in pooling members from different individual coupled models into a single superensemble. This approach was undertaken as part of the European Commission funded ENSEMBLES project, and we find that it usually improves seasonal precipitation re-forecasts over several regions of Africa with respect to individual model predictions. The main goal of this thesis is to study another approach to addressing model uncertainty in the global coupled model CNRM-CM5, by adding stochastic perturbations to the dynamics of the atmospheric model ARPEGE-Climat. Our method, called “stochastic dynamics”, consists in adding additive perturbations to the temperature, specific humidity and vorticity fields, thus correcting estimations of model initial tendency errors. In this thesis, two initial tendency error estimation techniques were studied, based on nudging the model towards reference data. They yield different results in terms of re-forecast scores, depending on the regions studied. If the initial tendency error corrections are estimated using an iterative nudging method towards the ERA-Interim reanalysis, seasonal prediction scores over the Northern Hemisphere in winter are significantly improved by drawing random corrections. The 500 hPa geopotential height is also clearly reduced. A re-forecast using “optimal” perturbations drawn within the initial tendency error corrections from the current forecast month shows that useful information at a monthly timescale exists, and could allow significant forecast improvement. The last part of this thesis focuses on the idea of classifying the model perturbations according to its current state during the forecast, in order to take a step closer (if possible) to the improvements noted with these optimal perturbation