Mapping Water Availability, Cost and Projected Consumptive Use in the Eastern United States with Comparisons to the West

The availability of freshwater supplies to meet future demand is a growing concern. Water availability metrics are needed to inform future water development decisions. Furthermore, with the help of water managers, water availability was mapped for over 1300 watersheds throughout the 31-contiguous states in the eastern U.S. complimenting a prior study of the west. The compiled set of water availability data is unique in that it considers multiple sources of water (fresh surface and groundwater, wastewater and brackish groundwater); accommodates institutional controls placed on water use; is accompanied by cost estimates to access, treat and convey each unique source of water, and; is compared to projected future growth in consumptive water use to 2030. Although few administrative limits have been set on water availability in the east, water managers have identified 315 fresh surface water and 398 fresh groundwater basins (with 151 overlapping basins) as Areas of Concern (AOCs) where water supply challenges exist due to drought related concerns, environmental flows, groundwater overdraft, or salt water intrusion. This highlights a difference in management where AOCs are identified in the east which simply require additional permitting, while in the west strict administrative limits are established. Although the east is generally considered water rich roughly a quarter of the basins were identified as AOCs; however, this is still in strong contrast to the west where 78% of the surface water basins are operating at or near their administrative limit. There was little effort noted on the part of eastern or western water managers to quantify non-fresh water resource

A life cycle cost analysis framework for geologic storage of hydrogen : a scenario analysis.

The U.S. Department of Energy has an interest in large scale hydrogen geostorage, which would offer substantial buffer capacity to meet possible disruptions in supply. Geostorage options being considered are salt caverns, depleted oil/gas reservoirs, aquifers and potentially hard rock cavrns. DOE has an interest in assessing the geological, geomechanical and economic viability for these types of hydrogen storage options. This study has developed an ecocomic analysis methodology to address costs entailed in developing and operating an underground geologic storage facility. This year the tool was updated specifically to (1) a version that is fully arrayed such that all four types of geologic storage options can be assessed at the same time, (2) incorporate specific scenarios illustrating the model's capability, and (3) incorporate more accurate model input assumptions for the wells and storage site modules. Drawing from the knowledge gained in the underground large scale geostorage options for natural gas and petroleum in the U.S. and from the potential to store relatively large volumes of CO{sub 2} in geological formations, the hydrogen storage assessment modeling will continue to build on these strengths while maintaining modeling transparency such that other modeling efforts may draw from this project

A life cycle cost analysis framework for geologic storage of hydrogen : a user's tool.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has an interest in large scale hydrogen geostorage, which could offer substantial buffer capacity to meet possible disruptions in supply or changing seasonal demands. The geostorage site options being considered are salt caverns, depleted oil/gas reservoirs, aquifers and hard rock caverns. The DOE has an interest in assessing the geological, geomechanical and economic viability for these types of geologic hydrogen storage options. This study has developed an economic analysis methodology and subsequent spreadsheet analysis to address costs entailed in developing and operating an underground geologic storage facility. This year the tool was updated specifically to (1) incorporate more site-specific model input assumptions for the wells and storage site modules, (2) develop a version that matches the general format of the HDSAM model developed and maintained by Argonne National Laboratory, and (3) incorporate specific demand scenarios illustrating the model's capability. Four general types of underground storage were analyzed: salt caverns, depleted oil/gas reservoirs, aquifers, and hard rock caverns/other custom sites. Due to the substantial lessons learned from the geological storage of natural gas already employed, these options present a potentially sizable storage option. Understanding and including these various geologic storage types in the analysis physical and economic framework will help identify what geologic option would be best suited for the storage of hydrogen. It is important to note, however, that existing natural gas options may not translate to a hydrogen system where substantial engineering obstacles may be encountered. There are only three locations worldwide that currently store hydrogen underground and they are all in salt caverns. Two locations are in the U.S. (Texas), and are managed by ConocoPhillips and Praxair (Leighty, 2007). The third is in Teeside, U.K., managed by Sabic Petrochemicals (Crotogino et al., 2008; Panfilov et al., 2006). These existing H{sub 2} facilities are quite small by natural gas storage standards. The second stage of the analysis involved providing ANL with estimated geostorage costs of hydrogen within salt caverns for various market penetrations for four representative cities (Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Los Angeles). Using these demand levels, the scale and cost of hydrogen storage necessary to meet 10%, 25% and 100% of vehicle summer demands was calculated

Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict

Health-Related Quality of Life in Transplant-Ineligible Patients With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma: Findings From the Phase III MAIA Trial.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effects of daratumumab, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone (D-Rd) versus lenalidomide and dexamethasone (Rd) on patient-reported outcomes (PROs) in the phase III MAIA study. PATIENTS AND METHODS: PROs were assessed on the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30-item and the EuroQol 5-dimensional descriptive system at baseline and every 3 months during treatment. By mixed-effects model, changes from baseline are presented as least squares means with 95% CIs. RESULTS: A total of 737 transplant-ineligible (TIE) patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma were randomly assigned to D-Rd (n = 368) or Rd (n = 369). Compliance with PRO assessments was high at baseline (> 90%) through month 12 (> 78%) for both groups. European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30-item global health status scores improved from baseline in both groups and were consistently greater with D-Rd at all time points. A global health status benefit was achieved with D-Rd, regardless of age (< 75 and ≥ 75 years), baseline Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status score, or depth of response. D-Rd treatment resulted in significantly greater reduction in pain scores as early as cycle 3 (P = .0007 v Rd); the magnitude of change was sustained through cycle 12. Reductions in pain with D-Rd were clinically meaningful in patients regardless of age, ECOG status, or depth of response. Similarly, PRO improvements were observed with D-Rd and Rd on the EuroQol 5-dimensional descriptive system visual analog scale score. CONCLUSION: D-Rd compared with Rd was associated with faster and sustained clinically meaningful improvements in PROs, including pain, in transplant-ineligible patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma regardless of age, baseline ECOG status, or depth of treatment response

Low-Energy Direct Capture in the 8Li(n,gamma)9Li and 8B(p,gamma)9C Reactions

The cross sections of the 8Li(n,gamma)9Li and 8B(p,gamma)9C capture reactions have been analyzed using the direct capture model. At low energies which is the astrophysically relevant region the capture process is dominated by E1 transitions from incoming s-waves to bound p-states. The cross sections of both mirror reactions can be described simultaneously with consistent potential parameters, whereas previous calculations have overestimated the capture cross sections significantly. However, the parameters of the potential have to be chosen very carefully because the calculated cross section of the 8Li(n,gamma)9Li reaction depends sensitively on the potential strength.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, Phys. Rev. C, accepte

Dose-Dependent Onset of Regenerative Program in Neutron Irradiated Mouse Skin

Background: Tissue response to irradiation is not easily recapitulated by cell culture studies. The objective of this investigation was to characterize, the transcriptional response and the onset of regenerative processes in mouse skin irradiated with different doses of fast neutrons. Methodology/Principal Findings: To monitor general response to irradiation and individual animal to animal variation, we performed gene and protein expression analysis with both pooled and individual mouse samples. A high-throughput gene expression analysis, by DNA oligonucleotide microarray was done with three months old C57Bl/6 mice irradiated with 0.2 and 1 Gy of mono-energetic 14 MeV neutron compared to sham irradiated controls. The results on 440 irradiation modulated genes, partially validated by quantitative real time RT-PCR, showed a dose-dependent up-regulation of a subclass of keratin and keratin associated proteins, and members of the S100 family of Ca2+-binding proteins. Immunohistochemistry confirmed mRNA expression data enabled mapping of protein expression. Interestingly, proteins up-regulated in thickening epidermis: keratin 6 and S100A8 showed the most significant up-regulation and the least mouse-to-mouse variation following 0.2 Gy irradiation, in a concerted effort toward skin tissue regeneration. Conversely, mice irradiated at 1 Gy showed most evidence of apoptosis (Caspase-3 and TUNEL staining) and most 8-oxo-G accumulation at 24 h post-irradiation. Moreover, no cell proliferation accompanied 1 Gy exposure as shown by Ki67 immunohistochemistry. Conclusions/Significance: The dose-dependent differential gene expression at the tissue level following in vivo exposure to neutron radiation is reminiscent of the onset of re-epithelialization and wound healing and depends on the proportion of cells carrying multiple chromosomal lesions in the entire tissue. Thus, this study presents in vivo evidence of a skin regenerative program exerted independently from DNA repair-associated pathways

Modeling the transfer of land and water from agricultural to urban uses in the Middle Rio Grande Basin, New Mexico.

Social and ecological scientists emphasize that effective natural resource management depends in part on understanding the dynamic relationship between the physical and non-physical process associated with resource consumption. In this case, the physical processes include hydrological, climatological and ecological dynamics, and the non-physical process include social, economic and cultural dynamics among humans who do the resource consumption. This project represents a case study aimed at modeling coupled social and physical processes in a single decision support system. In central New Mexico, individual land use decisions over the past five decades have resulted in the gradual transformation of the Middle Rio Grande Valley from a primarily rural agricultural landscape to a largely urban one. In the arid southwestern U.S., the aggregate impact of individual decisions about land use is uniquely important to understand, because scarce hydrological resources will likely limit the viability of resulting growth and development trajectories. This decision support tool is intended to help planners in the area look forward in their efforts to create a collectively defined 'desired' social landscape in the Middle Rio Grande. Our research question explored the ways in which socio-cultural values impact decisions regarding that landscape and associated land use. Because of the constraints hydrological resources place on land use, we first assumed that water use, as embodied in water rights, was a reasonable surrogate for land use. We thought that modeling the movement of water rights over time and across water source types (surface and ground) would provide planners with insight into the possibilities for certain types of decisions regarding social landscapes, and the impact those same decisions would have on those landscapes. We found that water rights transfer data in New Mexico is too incomplete and inaccurate to use as the basis for the model. Furthermore, because of its lack of accuracy and completeness, water rights ownership was a poor indicator of water and land usage habits and patterns. We also found that commitment among users in the Middle Rio Grande Valley is to an agricultural lifestyle, not to a community or place. This commitment is conditioned primarily by generational cohort and past experience. If conditions warrant, many would be willing to practice the lifestyle elsewhere. A related finding was that sometimes the pressure to sell was not the putative price of the land, but the taxes on the land. These taxes were, in turn, a function of the level of urbanization of the neighborhood. This urbanization impacted the quality of the agricultural lifestyle. The project also yielded some valuable lessons regarding the model development process. A facilitative and collaborative style (rather than a top-down, directive style) was most productive with the inter-disciplinary , inter-institutional team that worked on the project. This allowed for the emergence of a process model which combined small, discipline- and/or task-specific subgroups with larger, integrating team meetings. The project objective was to develop a model that could be used to run test scenarios in which we explored the potential impact of different policy options. We achieved that objective, although not with the level of success or modeling fidelity which we had hoped for. This report only describes very superficially the results of test scenarios, since more complete analysis of scenarios would require more time and effort. Our greatest obstacle in the successful completion of the project was that required data were sparse, of poor quality, or completely nonexistent. Moreover, we found no similar modeling or research efforts taking place at either the state or local level. This leads to a key finding of this project: that state and local policy decisions regarding land use, development, urbanization, and water resource allocation are being made with minimal data and without the benefit of economic or social policy analysis

Temperature Effects Explain Continental Scale Distribution of Cyanobacterial Toxins

Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.Peer reviewe