46 research outputs found

    The Third Gravitational Lensing Accuracy Testing (GREAT3) Challenge Handbook

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    The GRavitational lEnsing Accuracy Testing 3 (GREAT3) challenge is the third in a series of image analysis challenges, with a goal of testing and facilitating the development of methods for analyzing astronomical images that will be used to measure weak gravitational lensing. This measurement requires extremely precise estimation of very small galaxy shape distortions, in the presence of far larger intrinsic galaxy shapes and distortions due to the blurring kernel caused by the atmosphere, telescope optics, and instrumental effects. The GREAT3 challenge is posed to the astronomy, machine learning, and statistics communities, and includes tests of three specific effects that are of immediate relevance to upcoming weak lensing surveys, two of which have never been tested in a community challenge before. These effects include realistically complex galaxy models based on high-resolution imaging from space; spatially varying, physically-motivated blurring kernel; and combination of multiple different exposures. To facilitate entry by people new to the field, and for use as a diagnostic tool, the simulation software for the challenge is publicly available, though the exact parameters used for the challenge are blinded. Sample scripts to analyze the challenge data using existing methods will also be provided. See http://great3challenge.info and http://great3.projects.phys.ucl.ac.uk/leaderboard/ for more information.Comment: 30 pages, 13 figures, submitted for publication, with minor edits (v2) to address comments from the anonymous referee. Simulated data are available for download and participants can find more information at http://great3.projects.phys.ucl.ac.uk/leaderboard

    The DESI Sky Continuum Monitor System

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    The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is an ongoing spectroscopic survey to measure the dark energy equation of state to unprecedented precision. We describe the DESI Sky Continuum Monitor System, which tracks the night sky brightness as part of a system that dynamically adjusts the spectroscopic exposure time to produce more uniform data quality and to maximize observing efficiency. The DESI dynamic exposure time calculator (ETC) will combine sky brightness measurements from the Sky Monitor with data from the guider system to calculate the exposure time to achieve uniform signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in the spectra under various observing conditions. The DESI design includes 20 sky fibers, and these are split between two identical Sky Monitor units to provide redundancy. Each Sky Monitor unit uses an SBIG STXL-6303e CCD camera and supports an eight-position filter wheel. Both units have been completed and delivered to the Mayall Telescope at the Kitt Peak National Observatory. Commissioning results show that the Sky Monitor delivers the required performance necessary for the ETC.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

    Investigating the Complex Arrhythmic Phenotype Caused by the Gain-of-Function Mutation KCNQ1-G229D

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    British Heart Foundation (BHF) (FS/12/59/29756 to SH, RG/15/15/31742 to AT, FS/17/22/32644 to AB-O, and SP/15/9/31605, RG/15/6/31436, PG/14/59/31000, RG/14/1/30588, P47352/Centre for Regenerative Medicine to CD)National Institute for Health Research Barts Biomedical Research CentreWellcome Trust (100246/Z/12/Z to BR and XZ)National Centre for the Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of Animals in Research (NC/P001076/1 to AB-O, CRACK-IT. FULL PROPOSAL code 35911-259146., NC/K000225/1 to CD)Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Impact Acceleration Award (EP/K503769/1 to BR)CompBioMed project (No. 675451 to BR)Oxford BHF Centre of Research Excellence (RE/08/004/23915 and RE/13/1/30181 to BR)China Scholarship Council to XZBIRAX (04BX14CDLG to CD)Medical Research Council (MR/M017354/1 to CD)Heart Research United Kingdom (TRP01/12 to CD

    Anticipating and Managing Future Trade-offs and Complementarities between Ecosystem Services

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    This paper shows how, with the aid of computer models developed in close collaboration with decision makers and other stakeholders, it is possible to quantify and map how policy decisions are likely to affect multiple ecosystem services in future. In this way, potential trade-offs and complementarities between different ecosystem services can be identified, so that policies can be designed to avoid the worst trade-offs, and where possible, enhance multiple services. The paper brings together evidence from across the Rural Economy and Land Use Programme’s Sustainable Uplands project for the first time, with previously unpublished model outputs relating to runoff, agricultural suitability, biomass, heather cover, age, and utility for Red Grouse (Lagopus scotica), grass cover, and accompanying scenario narratives and video. Two contrasting scenarios, based on policies to extensify or intensify land management up to 2030, were developed through a combination of interviews and discussions during site visits with stakeholders, literature review, conceptual modeling, and process-based computer models, using the Dark Peak of the Peak District National Park in the UK as a case study. Where extensification leads to a significant reduction in managed burning and grazing or land abandonment, changes in vegetation type and structure could compromise a range of species that are important for conservation, while compromising provisioning services, amenity value, and increasing wildfire risk. However, where extensification leads to the restoration of peatlands damaged by former intensive management, there would be an increase in carbon sequestration and storage, with a number of cobenefits, which could counter the loss of habitats and species elsewhere in the landscape. In the second scenario, land use and management was significantly intensified to boost UK self-sufficiency in food. This would benefit certain provisioning services but would have negative consequences for carbon storage and water quality and would lead to a reduction in the abundance of certain species of conservation concern. The paper emphasizes the need for spatially explicit models that can track how ecosystem services might change over time, in response to policy or environmental drivers, and in response to the changing demands and preferences of society, which are far harder to anticipate. By developing such models in close collaboration with decision makers and other stakeholders, it is possible to depict scenarios of real concern to those who need to use the research findings. By engaging these collaborators with the research findings through film, it was possible to discuss adaptive options to minimize trade-offs and enhance the provision of multiple ecosystem services under the very different future conditions depicted by each scenario. By preparing for as wide a range of futures as possible in this way, it may be possible for decision makers to act rapidly and effectively to protect and enhance the provision of ecosystem services in the face of unpredictable future change.Additional co-authors: Nanlin Jin, Brian J Irvine, Mike J Kirkby, William E Kunin, Christina Prell, Claire H Quinn, Bill Slee, Sigrid Stagl, Mette Termansen, Simon Thorp, and Fred Worral

    LSST: from Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products

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    (Abridged) We describe here the most ambitious survey currently planned in the optical, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). A vast array of science will be enabled by a single wide-deep-fast sky survey, and LSST will have unique survey capability in the faint time domain. The LSST design is driven by four main science themes: probing dark energy and dark matter, taking an inventory of the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. LSST will be a wide-field ground-based system sited at Cerro Pach\'{o}n in northern Chile. The telescope will have an 8.4 m (6.5 m effective) primary mirror, a 9.6 deg2^2 field of view, and a 3.2 Gigapixel camera. The standard observing sequence will consist of pairs of 15-second exposures in a given field, with two such visits in each pointing in a given night. With these repeats, the LSST system is capable of imaging about 10,000 square degrees of sky in a single filter in three nights. The typical 5σ\sigma point-source depth in a single visit in rr will be 24.5\sim 24.5 (AB). The project is in the construction phase and will begin regular survey operations by 2022. The survey area will be contained within 30,000 deg2^2 with δ<+34.5\delta<+34.5^\circ, and will be imaged multiple times in six bands, ugrizyugrizy, covering the wavelength range 320--1050 nm. About 90\% of the observing time will be devoted to a deep-wide-fast survey mode which will uniformly observe a 18,000 deg2^2 region about 800 times (summed over all six bands) during the anticipated 10 years of operations, and yield a coadded map to r27.5r\sim27.5. The remaining 10\% of the observing time will be allocated to projects such as a Very Deep and Fast time domain survey. The goal is to make LSST data products, including a relational database of about 32 trillion observations of 40 billion objects, available to the public and scientists around the world.Comment: 57 pages, 32 color figures, version with high-resolution figures available from https://www.lsst.org/overvie

    Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) – a community perspective

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    This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through on-line media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focussed on process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come

    A Primary Prevention Clinical Risk Score Model for Patients With Brugada Syndrome (BRUGADA-RISK).

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    OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to develop a risk score model for patients with Brugada syndrome (BrS). BACKGROUND: Risk stratification in BrS is a significant challenge due to the low event rates and conflicting evidence. METHODS: A multicenter international cohort of patients with BrS and no previous cardiac arrest was used to evaluate the role of 16 proposed clinical or electrocardiogram (ECG) markers in predicting ventricular arrhythmias (VAs)/sudden cardiac death (SCD) during follow-up. Predictive markers were incorporated into a risk score model, and this model was validated by using out-of-sample cross-validation. RESULTS: A total of 1,110 patients with BrS from 16 centers in 8 countries were included (mean age 51.8 ± 13.6 years; 71.8% male). Median follow-up was 5.33 years; 114 patients had VA/SCD (10.3%) with an annual event rate of 1.5%. Of the 16 proposed risk factors, probable arrhythmia-related syncope (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.71; p < 0.001), spontaneous type 1 ECG (HR: 3.80; p < 0.001), early repolarization (HR: 3.42; p < 0.001), and a type 1 Brugada ECG pattern in peripheral leads (HR: 2.33; p < 0.001) were associated with a higher risk of VA/SCD. A risk score model incorporating these factors revealed a sensitivity of 71.2% (95% confidence interval: 61.5% to 84.6%) and a specificity of 80.2% (95% confidence interval: 75.7% to 82.3%) in predicting VA/SCD at 5 years. Calibration plots showed a mean prediction error of 1.2%. The model was effectively validated by using out-of-sample cross-validation according to country. CONCLUSIONS: This multicenter study identified 4 risk factors for VA/SCD in a primary prevention BrS population. A risk score model was generated to quantify risk of VA/SCD in BrS and inform implantable cardioverter-defibrillator prescription
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