Environmentally driven extinction and opportunistic origination explain fern diversification patterns.

Combining palaeontological and neontological data offers a unique opportunity to investigate the relative roles of biotic and abiotic controls of species diversification, and the importance of origination versus extinction in driving evolutionary dynamics. Ferns comprise a major terrestrial plant radiation with an extensive evolutionary history providing a wealth of modern and fossil data for modelling environmental drivers of diversification. Here we develop a novel Bayesian model to simultaneously estimate correlations between diversification dynamics and multiple environmental trajectories. We estimate the impact of different factors on fern diversification over the past 400 million years by analysing a comprehensive dataset of fossil occurrences and complement these findings by analysing a large molecular phylogeny. We show that origination and extinction rates are governed by fundamentally different processes: originations depend on within-group diversity but are largely unaffected by environmental changes, whereas extinctions are strongly affected by external factors such as climate and geology. Our results indicate that the prime driver of fern diversity dynamics is environmentally driven extinction, with origination being an opportunistic response to diminishing ecospace occupancy

Traits of dominant plant species drive normalized difference vegetation index in grasslands globally

Aim: Theoretical, experimental and observational studies have shown that biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationships are influenced by functional community structure through two mutually non‐exclusive mechanisms: (1) the dominance effect (which relates to the traits of the dominant species); and (2) the niche partitioning effect [which relates to functional diversity (FD)]. Although both mechanisms have been studied in plant communities and experiments at small spatial extents, it remains unclear whether evidence from small‐extent case studies translates into a generalizable macroecological pattern. Here, we evaluate dominance and niche partitioning effects simultaneously in grassland systems world‐wide. Location: Two thousand nine hundred and forty‐one grassland plots globally. Time period: 2000–2014. Major taxa studied: Vascular plants. Methods: We obtained plot‐based data on functional community structure from the global vegetation plot database “sPlot”, which combines species composition with plant trait data from the “TRY” database. We used data on the community‐weighted mean (CWM) and FD for 18 ecologically relevant plant traits. As an indicator of primary productivity, we extracted the satellite‐derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from MODIS. Using generalized additive models and deviation partitioning, we estimated the contributions of trait CWM and FD to the variation in annual maximum NDVI, while controlling for climatic variables and spatial structure. Results: Grassland communities dominated by relatively tall species with acquisitive traits had higher NDVI values, suggesting the prevalence of dominance effects for BEF relationships. We found no support for niche partitioning for the functional traits analysed, because NDVI remained unaffected by FD. Most of the predictive power of traits was shared by climatic predictors and spatial coordinates. This highlights the importance of community assembly processes for BEF relationships in natural communities. Main conclusions: Our analysis provides empirical evidence that plant functional community structure and global patterns in primary productivity are linked through the resource economics and size traits of the dominant species. This is an important test of the hypotheses underlying BEF relationships at the global scale

Plant functional and taxonomic diversity in European grasslands along climatic gradients

Aim: European grassland communities are highly diverse, but patterns and drivers of their continental-scale diversity remain elusive. This study analyses taxonomic and functional richness in European grasslands along continental-scale temperature and precipitation gradients. Location: Europe. Methods: We quantified functional and taxonomic richness of 55,748 vegetation plots. Six plant traits, related to resource acquisition and conservation, were analysed to describe plant community functional composition. Using a null-model approach we derived functional richness effect sizes that indicate higher or lower diversity than expected given the taxonomic richness. We assessed the variation in absolute functional and taxonomic richness and in functional richness effect sizes along gradients of minimum temperature, temperature range, annual precipitation, and precipitation seasonality using a multiple general additive modelling approach. Results: Functional and taxonomic richness was high at intermediate minimum temperatures and wide temperature ranges. Functional and taxonomic richness was low in correspondence with low minimum temperatures or narrow temperature ranges. Functional richness increased and taxonomic richness decreased at higher minimum temperatures and wide annual temperature ranges. Both functional and taxonomic richness decreased with increasing precipitation seasonality and showed a small increase at intermediate annual precipitation. Overall, effect sizes of functional richness were small. However, effect sizes indicated trait divergence at extremely low minimum temperatures and at low annual precipitation with extreme precipitation seasonality. Conclusions: Functional and taxonomic richness of European grassland communities vary considerably over temperature and precipitation gradients. Overall, they follow similar patterns over the climate gradients, except at high minimum temperatures and wide temperature ranges, where functional richness increases and taxonomic richness decreases. This contrasting pattern may trigger new ideas for studies that target specific hypotheses focused on community assembly processes. And though effect sizes were small, they indicate that it may be important to consider climate seasonality in plant diversity studies

Molecular ecology studies of species radiations: current research gaps, opportunities and challenges.

Understanding the drivers and limits of species radiations is a crucial goal of evolutionary genetics and molecular ecology, yet research on this topic has been hampered by the notorious difficulty of connecting micro- and macroevolutionary approaches to studying the drivers of diversification. To chart the current research gaps, opportunities and challenges of molecular ecology approaches to studying radiations, we examine the literature in the journal Molecular Ecology and revisit recent high-profile examples of evolutionary genomic research on radiations. We find that available studies of radiations are highly unevenly distributed among taxa, with many ecologically important and species-rich organismal groups remaining severely understudied, including arthropods, plants and fungi. Most studies employed molecular methods suitable over either short or long evolutionary time scales, such as microsatellites or restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) in the former case and conventional amplicon sequencing of organellar DNA in the latter. The potential of molecular ecology studies to address and resolve patterns and processes around the species level in radiating groups of taxa is currently limited primarily by sample size and a dearth of information on radiating nuclear genomes as opposed to organellar ones. Based on our literature survey and personal experience, we suggest possible ways forward in the coming years. We touch on the potential and current limitations of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) in studies of radiations. We suggest that WGS and targeted ('capture') resequencing emerge as the methods of choice for scaling up the sampling of populations, species and genomes, including currently understudied organismal groups and the genes or regulatory elements expected to matter most to species radiations

Multispecies deep learning using citizen science data produces more informative plant community models.

In the age of big data, scientific progress is fundamentally limited by our capacity to extract critical information. Here, we map fine-grained spatiotemporal distributions for thousands of species, using deep neural networks (DNNs) and ubiquitous citizen science data. Based on 6.7 M observations, we jointly model the distributions of 2477 plant species and species aggregates across Switzerland with an ensemble of DNNs built with different cost functions. We find that, compared to commonly-used approaches, multispecies DNNs predict species distributions and especially community composition more accurately. Moreover, their design allows investigation of understudied aspects of ecology. Including seasonal variations of observation probability explicitly allows approximating flowering phenology; reweighting predictions to mirror cover-abundance allows mapping potentially canopy-dominant tree species nationwide; and projecting DNNs into the future allows assessing how distributions, phenology, and dominance may change. Given their skill and their versatility, multispecies DNNs can refine our understanding of the distribution of plants and well-sampled taxa in general

Dispersers and environment drive global variation in fruit colour syndromes

The colours of fleshy fruits play a critical role in plant dispersal by advertising ripe fruits to consumers. Fruit colours have long been classified into syndromes attributed to selection by animal dispersers, despite weak evidence for this hypothesis. Here, we test the relative importance of biotic (bird and mammal frugivory) and abiotic (wet season temperatures, growing season length and UV-B radiation) factors in determining fruit colour syndrome in 3163 species of fleshy-fruited plants. We find that both dispersers and environment are important, and they interact. In warm areas, contrastive, bird-associated fruit colours increase with relative bird frugivore prevalence, whereas in cold places these colours dominate even where mammalian dispersers are prevalent. We present near-global maps of predicted fruit colour syndrome based on our species-level model and our newly developed characterisations of relative importance of bird and mammal frugivores. &nbsp;</p