Effects of mental health status during adolescence on primary care costs in adulthood across three British cohorts

PURPOSE: This study examines the association between mental health problems in adolescence and general practice (GP) costs during adulthood up to age 50 in the UK. METHODS: We conducted secondary analyses of three British birth cohorts (individuals born in single weeks in 1946, 1958 and 1970). Data for the three cohorts were analysed separately. All respondents who participated in the cohort studies were included. Adolescent mental health status was assessed in each cohort using the Rutter scale (or, for one cohort, a forerunner of that scale) completed in interviews with parents and teachers when cohort members were aged around 16. Presence and severity of conduct and emotional problems were modelled as independent variables in two-part regression models in which the dependent variable was costs of GP services from data collection sweeps up to mid-adulthood. All analyses were adjusted for covariates (cognitive ability, mother's education, housing tenure, father's social class and childhood physical disability). RESULTS: Adolescent conduct and emotional problems, particularly when coexisting, were associated with relatively high GP costs in adulthood up to age 50. Associations were generally stronger in females than males. CONCLUSION: Associations between adolescent mental health problems and annual GP cost were evident decades later, to age 50, suggesting that there could be significant future savings to healthcare budgets if rates of adolescent conduct and emotional problems could be reduced. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories

Circadian rhythm of photosynthetic oxygen evolution in Kappaphycus alvarezii (Rhodophyta): dependence on light quantity and quality

The rate of oxygen evolution of the tropical red alga Kappaphycus alvarezii was measured for 6 days in the laboratory using a computer-aided method for long-term recording. In cool white light Kappaphacus exhibited a robust circadian rhythm of O2 evolution in the irradiance range of 100 to 1000 µmol m-2 s-1. With increasing irradiance the period of the free-running rhythm, tau, decreased in blue and increased in red light, but did not change significantly in green light. The accelerating or slowing action of blue or red light, respectively, points to two photoreceptors used in the light transduction pathway of the circadian oscillator controlling oxygen evolution or the light reactions of photosynthesis in Kappaphycus. No significant changes of tau were observed with increasing irradiance in cool white light, possibly due to the additive, opposing responses caused by blue and red light

Pomatoschistus minutus in the Sylt Rømø bight in 2008, Version 2.

Due to changing temperature regimes in the North- and the Wadden Sea, a fish survey in the Sylt Rømø bight (SRB) was established in 2007 for at least ten years. The aim is to investigate the Wadden Sea fish fauna with special interest in changes of migration behavior, species composition and feeding habits. Seven stations are sampled monthly inside the SRB. Two additional stations, one outside the bight, one close to the Danish border are sampled as references four times a year. For sampling a mini bottom trawl, total length 17 m, trawl opening 7 m, height 3 m with a mesh size of 36 mm in the wings, 16 mm in the mid part and 6 mm in the cod end is used. At every station one haul in the water column and another at the bottom are sampled, for 15 minutes at a speed of approximately 2 knots. The data will help to give a more detailed picture of food chains and energy flows inside the Wadden Sea

Hyperoplus lanceolatus in the Sylt Rømø bight in 2017

Due to changing temperature regimes in the North- and the Wadden Sea, a fish survey in the Sylt Rømø bight (SRB) was established in 2007 for at least ten years. The aim is to investigate the Wadden Sea fish fauna with special interest in changes of migration behavior, species composition and feeding habits. Seven stations are sampled monthly inside the SRB. Two additional stations, one outside the bight, one close to the Danish border are sampled as references four times a year. For sampling a mini bottom trawl, total length 17 m, trawl opening 7 m, height 3 m with a mesh size of 36 mm in the wings, 16 mm in the mid part and 6 mm in the cod end is used. At every station one haul in the water column and another at the bottom are sampled, for 15 minutes at a speed of approximately 2 knots. The data will help to give a more detailed picture of food chains and energy flows inside the Wadden Sea

Pholis gunnellus in the Sylt Rømø bight in 2020. Alfred Wegener Institute - Wadden Sea Station Sylt, PANGAEA, https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.937848

Due to changing temperature regimes in the North- and the Wadden Sea, a fish survey in the Sylt Rømø bight (SRB) was established in 2007 for at least ten years. The aim is to investigate the Wadden Sea fish fauna with special interest in changes of migration behavior, species composition and feeding habits. Seven stations are sampled monthly inside the SRB. Two additional stations, one outside the bight, one close to the Danish border are sampled as references four times a year. For sampling a mini bottom trawl, total length 17 m, trawl opening 7 m, height 3 m with a mesh size of 36 mm in the wings, 16 mm in the mid part and 6 mm in the cod end is used. At every station one haul in the water column and another at the bottom are sampled, for 15 minutes at a speed of approximately 2 knots. The data will help to give a more detailed picture of food chains and energy flows inside the Wadden Sea

Pomatoschistus minutus in the Sylt Rømø bight in 2020. Alfred Wegener Institute - Wadden Sea Station Sylt, PANGAEA, https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.937852

Due to changing temperature regimes in the North- and the Wadden Sea, a fish survey in the Sylt Rømø bight (SRB) was established in 2007 for at least ten years. The aim is to investigate the Wadden Sea fish fauna with special interest in changes of migration behavior, species composition and feeding habits. Seven stations are sampled monthly inside the SRB. Two additional stations, one outside the bight, one close to the Danish border are sampled as references four times a year. For sampling a mini bottom trawl, total length 17 m, trawl opening 7 m, height 3 m with a mesh size of 36 mm in the wings, 16 mm in the mid part and 6 mm in the cod end is used. At every station one haul in the water column and another at the bottom are sampled, for 15 minutes at a speed of approximately 2 knots. The data will help to give a more detailed picture of food chains and energy flows inside the Wadden Sea