Decomposing oceanic temperature and salinity change using ocean carbon change

As the planet warms due to the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere, the interaction of surface ocean carbonate chemistry and the radiative forcing of atmospheric CO2 leads to the global ocean sequestering heat and carbon in a ratio that is nearly constant in time. This ratio has been approximated as globally uniform, enabling the intimately linked patterns of ocean heat and carbon uptake to be derived. Patterns of ocean salinity also change as the Earth system warms due to hydrological cycle intensification and perturbations to air–sea freshwater fluxes. Local temperature and salinity change in the ocean may result from perturbed air–sea fluxes of heat and fresh water (excess temperature, salinity) or from reorganisation of the preindustrial temperature and salinity fields (redistributed temperature, salinity), which are largely due to circulation changes. Here, we present a novel method in which the redistribution of preindustrial carbon is diagnosed and the redistribution of temperature and salinity is estimated using only local spatial information. We demonstrate this technique in the NEMO ocean general circulation model (OGCM) coupled to the MEDUSA-2 biogeochemistry model under an RCP8.5 scenario over 1860–2099. The excess changes (difference between total and redistributed property changes) are thus calculated. We demonstrate that a global ratio between excess heat and temperature is largely appropriate regionally with key regional differences consistent with reduced efficiency in the transport of carbon through the mixed layer base at high latitudes. On centennial timescales, excess heat increases everywhere, with the North Atlantic being a key site of excess heat uptake over the 21st century, accounting for 25 % of the total. Excess salinity meanwhile increases in the Atlantic but is generally negative in other basins, consistent with increasing atmospheric transport of fresh water out of the Atlantic. In the North Atlantic, changes in the inventory of excess salinity are detectable in the late 19th century, whereas increases in the inventory of excess heat do not become significant until the early 21st century. This is consistent with previous studies which find salinification of the subtropical North Atlantic to be an early fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change. Over the full simulation, we also find the imprint of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) slowdown through significant redistribution of heat away from the North Atlantic and of salinity to the South Atlantic. Globally, temperature change at 2000 m is accounted for by both redistributed and excess heat, but for salinity the excess component accounts for the majority of changes at the surface and at depth. This indicates that the circulation variability contributes significantly less to changes in ocean salinity than to heat content. By the end of the simulation excess heat is the largest contribution to density change and steric sea level rise, while excess salinity greatly reduces spatial variability in steric sea level rise through density compensation of excess temperature patterns, particularly in the Atlantic. In the Atlantic, redistribution of the preindustrial heat and salinity fields also produces generally compensating changes in sea level, though this compensation is less clear elsewhere. The regional strength of excess heat and salinity signals grows through the model run in response to the evolving forcing. In addition, the regional strength of the redistributed temperature and salinity signals also grows, indicating increasing circulation variability or systematic circulation change on timescales of at least the model run

Building a traceable climate model hierarchy with multi-level emulators

To study climate change on multi-millennial timescales or to explore a model’s parameter space, efficient models with simplified and parameterised processes are required. However, the reduction in explicitly modelled processes can lead to underestimation of some atmospheric responses that are essential to the understanding of the climate system. While more complex general circulations are available and capable of simulating a more realistic climate, they are too computationally intensive for these purposes. In this work, we propose a multi-level Gaussian emulation technique to efficiently estimate the outputs of steady-state simulations of an expensive atmospheric model in response to changes in boundary forcing. The link between a computationally expensive atmospheric model, PLASIM (Planet Simulator), and a cheaper model, EMBM (energy–moisture balance model), is established through the common boundary condition specified by an ocean model, allowing for information to be propagated from one to the other. This technique allows PLASIM emulators to be built at a low cost. The method is first demonstrated by emulating a scalar summary quantity, the global mean surface air temperature. It is then employed to emulate the dimensionally reduced 2-D surface air temperature field. Even though the two atmospheric models chosen are structurally unrelated, Gaussian process emulators of PLASIM atmospheric variables are successfully constructed using EMBM as a fast approximation. With the extra information gained from the cheap model, the multi-level emulator of PLASIM’s 2-D surface air temperature field is built using only one-third the amount of expensive data required by the normal single-level technique. The constructed emulator is shown to capture 93.2% of the variance across the validation ensemble, with the averaged RMSE of 1.33 °C. Using the method proposed, quantities from PLASIM can be constructed and used to study the effects introduced by PLASIM’s atmosphere

A record of Neogene seawater δ11B reconstructed from paired δ11B analyses on benthic and planktic foraminifera

The work was supported by NERC grants NE/I006176/1 (Gavin L. Foster and Caroline H. Lear), NE/H006273/1 (Gavin L. Foster), NE/I006168/1 and NE/K014137/1 and a Royal Society Research Merit Award (Paul A. Wilson), a NERC Independent Research Fellowship NE/K00901X/1 (Mathis P. Hain) and a NERC studentship (Rosanna Greenop).The boron isotope composition (δ11B) of foraminiferal calcite reflects the pH and the boron isotope composition of the seawater the foraminifer grew in. For pH reconstructions, the δ11B of seawater must therefore be known, but information on this parameter is limited. Here we reconstruct Neogene seawater δ11B based on the δ11B difference between paired measurements of planktic and benthic foraminifera and an estimate of the coeval water column pH gradient from their δ13C values. Carbon cycle model simulations underscore that the ΔpH-Δδ13C relationship is relatively insensitive to ocean and carbon cycle changes, validating our approach. Our reconstructions suggest that δ11Bsw was ∼37.5‰ during the early and middle Miocene (roughly 23-12 Ma) and rapidly increased during the late Miocene (between 12 and 5 Ma) towards the modern value of 39.61 ‰. Strikingly, this pattern is similar to the evolution of the seawater isotope composition of Mg, Li and Ca, suggesting a common forcing mechanism. Based on the observed direction of change, we hypothesize that an increase in secondary mineral formation during continental weathering affected the isotope composition of riverine input to the ocean since 14 Ma.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Meeting the Cool Neighbors VII: Spectroscopy of faint, red NLTT dwarfs

We present low-resolution optical spectroscopy and BVRI photometry of 453 candidate nearby stars drawn from the NLTT proper motion catalogue. The stars were selected based on optical/near-infrared colours, derived by combining the NLTT photographic data with photometry from the 2MASS Second Incremental Data Release. Based on the derived photometric and spectroscopic parallaxes, we identify 111 stars as lying within 20 parsecs of the Sun, including 9 stars with formal distance estimates of less than 10 parsecs. A further 53 stars have distance estimates within 1-sigma of our 20-parsec limit. Almost all of those stars are additions to the nearby star census. In total, our NLTT-based survey has so far identified 496 stars likely to be within 20 parsecs, of which 195 are additions to nearby-star catalogues. Most of the newly-identified nearby stars have spectral types between M4 and M8.Comment: 41 pages, 7 figure

Emerging Infectious Disease leads to Rapid Population Decline of Common British Birds

Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly cited as threats to wildlife, livestock and humans alike. They can threaten geographically isolated or critically endangered wildlife populations; however, relatively few studies have clearly demonstrated the extent to which emerging diseases can impact populations of common wildlife species. Here, we report the impact of an emerging protozoal disease on British populations of greenfinch Carduelis chloris and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, two of the most common birds in Britain. Morphological and molecular analyses showed this to be due to Trichomonas gallinae. Trichomonosis emerged as a novel fatal disease of finches in Britain in 2005 and rapidly became epidemic within greenfinch, and to a lesser extent chaffinch, populations in 2006. By 2007, breeding populations of greenfinches and chaffinches in the geographic region of highest disease incidence had decreased by 35% and 21% respectively, representing mortality in excess of half a million birds. In contrast, declines were less pronounced or absent in these species in regions where the disease was found in intermediate or low incidence. Also, populations of dunnock Prunella modularis, which similarly feeds in gardens, but in which T. gallinae was rarely recorded, did not decline. This is the first trichomonosis epidemic reported in the scientific literature to negatively impact populations of free-ranging non-columbiform species, and such levels of mortality and decline due to an emerging infectious disease are unprecedented in British wild bird populations. This disease emergence event demonstrates the potential for a protozoan parasite to jump avian host taxonomic groups with dramatic effect over a short time period

Spatio-temporal Models of Lymphangiogenesis in Wound Healing

Several studies suggest that one possible cause of impaired wound healing is failed or insufficient lymphangiogenesis, that is the formation of new lymphatic capillaries. Although many mathematical models have been developed to describe the formation of blood capillaries (angiogenesis), very few have been proposed for the regeneration of the lymphatic network. Lymphangiogenesis is a markedly different process from angiogenesis, occurring at different times and in response to different chemical stimuli. Two main hypotheses have been proposed: 1) lymphatic capillaries sprout from existing interrupted ones at the edge of the wound in analogy to the blood angiogenesis case; 2) lymphatic endothelial cells first pool in the wound region following the lymph flow and then, once sufficiently populated, start to form a network. Here we present two PDE models describing lymphangiogenesis according to these two different hypotheses. Further, we include the effect of advection due to interstitial flow and lymph flow coming from open capillaries. The variables represent different cell densities and growth factor concentrations, and where possible the parameters are estimated from biological data. The models are then solved numerically and the results are compared with the available biological literature.Comment: 29 pages, 9 Figures, 6 Tables (39 figure files in total

Gene content evolution in the arthropods

Arthropods comprise the largest and most diverse phylum on Earth and play vital roles in nearly every ecosystem. Their diversity stems in part from variations on a conserved body plan, resulting from and recorded in adaptive changes in the genome. Dissection of the genomic record of sequence change enables broad questions regarding genome evolution to be addressed, even across hyper-diverse taxa within arthropods. Using 76 whole genome sequences representing 21 orders spanning more than 500 million years of arthropod evolution, we document changes in gene and protein domain content and provide temporal and phylogenetic context for interpreting these innovations. We identify many novel gene families that arose early in the evolution of arthropods and during the diversification of insects into modern orders. We reveal unexpected variation in patterns of DNA methylation across arthropods and examples of gene family and protein domain evolution coincident with the appearance of notable phenotypic and physiological adaptations such as flight, metamorphosis, sociality, and chemoperception. These analyses demonstrate how large-scale comparative genomics can provide broad new insights into the genotype to phenotype map and generate testable hypotheses about the evolution of animal diversity

On which timescales do gas transfer velocities control North Atlantic CO2 flux variability?

The North Atlantic is an important basin for the global ocean's uptake of anthropogenic and natural carbon dioxide (CO2), but the mechanisms controlling this carbon flux are not fully understood. The air-sea flux of CO2, F, is the product of a gas transfer velocity, k, the air-sea CO2 concentration gradient, ΔpCO2, and the temperature and salinity-dependent solubility coefficient, α. k is difficult to constrain, representing the dominant uncertainty in F on short (instantaneous to interannual) timescales. Previous work shows that in the North Atlantic, ΔpCO2 and k both contribute significantly to interannual F variability, but that k is unimportant for multidecadal variability. On some timescale between interannual and multidecadal, gas transfer velocity variability and its associated uncertainty become negligible. Here, we quantify this critical timescale for the first time. Using an ocean model, we determine the importance of k, ΔpCO2 and α on a range of timescales. On interannual and shorter timescales, both ΔpCO2 and k are important controls on F. In contrast, pentadal to multidecadal North Atlantic flux variability is driven almost entirely by ΔpCO2; k contributes less than 25%. Finally, we explore how accurately one can estimate North Atlantic F without a knowledge of non-seasonal k variability, finding it possible for interannual and longer timescales. These findings suggest that continued efforts to better constrain gas transfer velocities are necessary to quantify interannual variability in the North Atlantic carbon sink. However, uncertainty in k variability is unlikely to limit the accuracy of estimates of longer term flux variability

The Ninth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey: First Spectroscopic Data from the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III) presents the first spectroscopic data from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). This ninth data release (DR9) of the SDSS project includes 535,995 new galaxy spectra (median z=0.52), 102,100 new quasar spectra (median z=2.32), and 90,897 new stellar spectra, along with the data presented in previous data releases. These spectra were obtained with the new BOSS spectrograph and were taken between 2009 December and 2011 July. In addition, the stellar parameters pipeline, which determines radial velocities, surface temperatures, surface gravities, and metallicities of stars, has been updated and refined with improvements in temperature estimates for stars with T_eff<5000 K and in metallicity estimates for stars with [Fe/H]>-0.5. DR9 includes new stellar parameters for all stars presented in DR8, including stars from SDSS-I and II, as well as those observed as part of the SDSS-III Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration-2 (SEGUE-2). The astrometry error introduced in the DR8 imaging catalogs has been corrected in the DR9 data products. The next data release for SDSS-III will be in Summer 2013, which will present the first data from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) along with another year of data from BOSS, followed by the final SDSS-III data release in December 2014.Comment: 9 figures; 2 tables. Submitted to ApJS. DR9 is available at http://www.sdss3.org/dr