Extinction debt on reservoir land-bridge islands

Large dams cause extensive inundation of habitats, with remaining terrestrial habitat confined to highly fragmented archipelagos of land-bridge islands comprised of former hilltops. Isolation of biological communities on reservoir islands induces local extinctions and degradation of remnant communities. “Good practice” dam development guidelines propose using reservoir islands for species conservation, mitigating some of the detrimental impacts associated with flooding terrestrial habitats. The degree of species retention on islands in the long-term, and hence, whether they are effective for conservation is currently unknown. Here, we quantitatively review species' responses to isolation on reservoir islands. We specifically investigate island species richness in comparison with neighbouring continuous habitat, and relationships between island species richness and island area, isolation time, and distance to mainland and to other islands. Species' responses to isolation on reservoir islands have been investigated in only 15 of the > 58,000 large-dam reservoirs (dam height > 15m) operating globally. Research predominantly originates from wet tropical forest habitats and focuses on mammals, with species richness being the most widely-reported ecological metric. Terrestrial taxa are, overall, negatively impacted by isolation on reservoir islands. Reservoir island species richness declines with isolation time, and although the rate of loss is slower on larger islands, all islands exhibit depauperate species richness < 100 years after isolation, compared to continuous mainland habitats. Such a pattern of sustained and delayed species loss following large-scale habitat disturbance is indicative of an extinction debt existing for reservoir island species: this pattern is evident across all taxonomic groups and dams studied. Thus, reservoir islands cannot reliably be used for species conservation as part of impact mitigation measures, and should instead be included in area calculations for land impacted by dam creation. Environmental licensing assessments as a precondition for future dam development should explicitly consider the long-term fate of island communities when assessing biodiversity loss vs energy output

Isolation of polymorphic microsatellites in the stemless thistle (Cirsium acaule) and their utility in other Cirsium species

The genus Cirsium includes species with both widespread and restricted geographical distributions, several of which are serious weeds. Nine polymorphic microsatellite loci were isolated from the stemless thistle Cirsium acaule. Eight were polymorphic in C. acaule, six in C. arvense and seven in C. heterophyllum. One locus monomorphic in C. acaule showed polymorphism in C. heterophyllum. The mean number of alleles per locus was 4.1 in C. acaule, 6.2 in C. arvense and 2.9 in C. heterophyllum. These nine loci were also amplified in C. eriophorum and C. vulgare, suggesting that these markers may be of use throughout the genus

Cirsium species show disparity in patterns of genetic variation at their range-edge, despite similar patterns of reproduction and isolation

Genetic variation was assessed across the UK geographical range of Cirsium acaule and Cirsium heterophyllum. A decline in genetic diversity and increase in population divergence approaching the range edge of these species was predicted based on parallel declines in population density and seed production reported seperately. Patterns were compared with UK populations of the widespread Cirsium arvense.Populations were sampled along a latitudinal transect in the UK and genetic variation assessed using microsatellite markers. Cirsium acaule shows strong isolation by distance, a significant decline in diversity and an increase in divergence among range-edge populations. Geographical structure is also evident in C. arvense, whereas no such patterns are seen in C.heterophyllum. There is a major disparity between patterns of genetic variation in C. acaule and C. heterophyllum despite very similar patterns in seed production and population isolation in these species. This suggests it may be misleading to make assumptions about the geographical structure of genetic variation within species based solely on the present-day reproduction and distribution of populations

Available and missing data to model impact of climate change on European forests

Climate change is expected to cause major changes in forest ecosystems during the 21st century and beyond. To assess forest impacts from climate change, the existing empirical information must be structured, harmonised and assimilated into a form suitable to develop and test state-of-the-art forest and ecosystem models. The combination of empirical data collected at large spatial and long temporal scales with suitable modelling approaches is key to understand forest dynamics under climate change. To facilitate data and model integration, we identified major climate change impacts observed on European forest functioning and summarised the data available for monitoring and predicting such impacts. Our analysis of c. 120 forest-related databases (including information from remote sensing, vegetation inventories, dendroecology, palaeoecology, eddy-flux sites, common garden experiments and genetic techniques) and 50 databases of environmental drivers highlights a substantial degree of data availability and accessibility. However, some critical variables relevant to predicting European forest responses to climate change are only available at relatively short time frames (up to 10-20 years), including intra-specific trait variability, defoliation patterns, tree mortality and recruitment. Moreover, we identified data gaps or lack of data integration particularly in variables related to local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity, dispersal capabilities and physiological responses. Overall, we conclude that forest data availability across Europe is improving, but further efforts are needed to integrate, harmonise and interpret this data (i.e. making data useable for non-experts). Continuation of existing monitoring and networks schemes together with the establishments of new networks to address data gaps is crucial to rigorously predict climate change impacts on European forests. © 2019 The Author(s

Available and missing data to model impact of climate change on European forests

Climate change is expected to cause major changes in forest ecosystems during the 21st century and beyond. To assess forest impacts from climate change, the existing empirical information must be structured, harmonised and assimilated into a form suitable to develop and test state-of-the-art forest and ecosystem models. The combination of empirical data collected at large spatial and long temporal scales with suitable modelling approaches is key to understand forest dynamics under climate change. To facilitate data and model integration, we identified major climate change impacts observed on European forest functioning and summarised the data available for monitoring and predicting such impacts. Our analysis of c. 120 forest-related databases (including information from remote sensing, vegetation inventories, dendroecology, palaeoecology, eddy-flux sites, common garden experiments and genetic techniques) and 50 databases of environmental drivers highlights a substantial degree of data availability and accessibility. However, some critical variables relevant to predicting European forest responses to climate change are only available at relatively short time frames (up to 10-20 years), including intra-specific trait variability, defoliation patterns, tree mortality and recruitment. Moreover, we identified data gaps or lack of data integration particularly in variables related to local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity, dispersal capabilities and physiological responses. Overall, we conclude that forest data availability across Europe is improving, but further efforts are needed to integrate, harmonise and interpret this data (i.e. making data useable for non-experts). Continuation of existing monitoring and networks schemes together with the establishments of new networks to address data gaps is crucial to rigorously predict climate change impacts on European forests.Peer reviewe

SoilTemp: a global database of near-surface temperature

Current analyses and predictions of spatially-explicit patterns and processes in ecology most often rely on climate data interpolated from standardized weather stations. This interpolated climate data represents long-term average thermal conditions at coarse spatial resolutions only. Hence, many climate-forcing factors that operate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions are overlooked. This is particularly important in relation to effects of observation height (e.g. vegetation, snow and soil characteristics) and in habitats varying in their exposure to radiation, moisture and wind (e.g. topography, radiative forcing, or cold-air pooling). Since organisms living close to the ground relate more strongly to these microclimatic conditions than to free-air temperatures, microclimatic ground and near-surface data are needed to provide realistic forecasts of the fate of such organisms under anthropogenic climate change, as well as of the functioning of the ecosystems they live in. To fill this critical gap, we highlight a call for temperature time series submissions to SoilTemp, a geospatial database initiative compiling soil and near-surface temperature data from all over the world. Currently this database contains time series from 7538 temperature sensors from 51 countries across all key biomes. The database will pave the way towards an improved global understanding of microclimate and bridge the gap between the available climate data and the climate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions relevant to most organisms and ecosystem processes.Additional co-authors: Stuart W. Smith, Robert G. Björk, Lena Muffler, Simone Cesarz, Felix Gottschall, Amanda Ratier Backes, Joseph Okello, Josef Urban, Roman Plichta, Martin Svátek, Shyam S. Phartyal, Sonja Wipf, Nico Eisenhauer, Mihai Pușcaș, Pavel Dan Turtureanu, Andrej Varlagin, Romina D. Dimarco, Krystal Randall, Ellen Dorrepaal, Keith Larson, Josefine Walz, Luca Vitale, Miroslav Svoboda, Rebecca Finger Higgens, Aud H. Halbritter, Salvatore R. Curasi, Ian Klupar, Austin Koontz, William D. Pearse, Elizabeth Simpson, Michael Stemkovski, Bente Jessen Graae, Mia Vedel Sørensen, Toke T. Høye, M. Rosa Fernández Calzado, Juan Lorite, Michele Carbognani, Marcello Tomaselli, T'ai G.W. Forte, Alessandro Petraglia, Stef Haesen, Ben Somers, Koenraad Van Meerbeek, Mats P. Björkman, Kristoffer Hylander, Sonia Merinero, Mana Gharun, Nina Buchmann, Jiri Dolezal, Radim Matula, Andrew D. Thomas, Joseph J. Bailey, Dany Ghosn, George Kazakis, Miguel Angel de Pablo, Julia Kemppinen, Pekka Niittynen, Lisa Rew, Tim Seipel, Christian Larson, James D.M. Speed, Jonas Ardö, Nicoletta Cannone, Mauro Guglielmin, Francesco Malfasi, Maaike Y. Bader, Rafaella Canessa, Angela Stanisci, Juergen Kreyling, Jonas Schmeddes, Laurenz Teuber, Valeria Aschero, Marek Čiliak, František Máliš, Pallieter De Smedt, Sanne Govaert, Camille Meeussen, Pieter Vangansbeke, Khatuna Gigauri, Andrea Lamprecht, Harald Pauli, Klaus Steinbauer, Manuela Winkler, Masahito Ueyama, Martin A. Nuñez, Tudor‐Mihai Ursu, Sylvia Haider, Ronja E.M. Wedegärtner, Marko Smiljanic, Mario Trouillier, Martin Wilmking, Jan Altman, Josef Brůna, Lucia Hederová, Martin Macek, Matěj Man, Jan Wild, Pascal Vittoz, Meelis Pärtel, Peter Barančok, Róbert Kanka, Jozef Kollár, Andrej Palaj, Agustina Barros, Ana Clara Mazzolari, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, José Luis Benito Alonso, Shengwei Zong, Valter Di Cecco, Zuzana Sitková, Katja Tielbörger, Liesbeth van den Brink, Robert Weigel, Jürgen Homeier, C. Johan Dahlberg, Sergiy Medinets, Volodymyr Medinets, Hans J. De Boeck, Miguel Portillo‐Estrada, Lore T. Verryckt, Ann Milbau, Gergana N. Daskalova, Haydn J.D. Thomas, Isla H. Myers‐Smith, Benjamin Blonder, Jörg G. Stephan, Patrice Descombes, Florian Zellweger, Esther R. Frei, Bernard Heinesch, Christopher Andrews, Jan Dick, Lukas Siebicke, Adrian Rocha, Rebecca A. Senior, Christian Rixen, Juan J. Jimenez, Julia Boike, Aníbal Pauchard, Thomas Scholten, Brett Scheffers, David Klinges, Edmund W. Basham, Jian Zhang, Zhaochen Zhang, Charly Géron, Fatih Fazlioglu, Onur Candan, Jhonatan Sallo Bravo, Filip Hrbacek, Kamil Laska, Edoardo Cremonese, Peter Haase, Fernando E. Moyano, Christian Rossi, and Ivan Nij

Genome-Wide Association Study in BRCA1 Mutation Carriers Identifies Novel Loci Associated with Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk

BRCA1-associated breast and ovarian cancer risks can be modified by common genetic variants. To identify further cancer risk-modifying loci, we performed a multi-stage GWAS of 11,705 BRCA1 carriers (of whom 5,920 were diagnosed with breast and 1,839 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer), with a further replication in an additional sample of 2,646 BRCA1 carriers. We identified a novel breast cancer risk modifier locus at 1q32 for BRCA1 carriers (rs2290854, P = 2.7×10-8, HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.20). In addition, we identified two novel ovarian cancer risk modifier loci: 17q21.31 (rs17631303, P = 1.4×10-8, HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38) and 4q32.3 (rs4691139, P = 3.4×10-8, HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38). The 4q32.3 locus was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in the general population or BRCA2 carriers, suggesting a BRCA1-specific associat

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world\u27s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km² resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e., offset) between in-situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km² pixels (summarized from 8500 unique temperature sensors) across all the world’s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in-situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications