The global methane budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30∘ N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60∘ N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90∘ N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4 yr−1 lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4 yr−1 by 8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning

Surviving sepsis campaign international guidelines for the management of septic shock and sepsis-associated organ dysfunction in children

OBJECTIVES: To develop evidence-based recommendations for clinicians caring for children (including infants, school-aged children, and adolescents) with septic shock and other sepsis-associated organ dysfunction. DESIGN: A panel of 49 international experts, representing 12 international organizations, as well as three methodologists and three public members was convened. Panel members assembled at key international meetings (for those panel members attending the conference), and a stand-alone meeting was held for all panel members in November 2018. A formal conflict-of-interest policy was developed at the onset of the process and enforced throughout. Teleconferences and electronic-based discussion among the chairs, co-chairs, methodologists, and group heads, as well as within subgroups, served as an integral part of the guideline development process. METHODS: The panel consisted of six subgroups: recognition and management of infection, hemodynamics and resuscitation, ventilation, endocrine and metabolic therapies, adjunctive therapies, and research priorities. We conducted a systematic review for each Population, Intervention, Control, and Outcomes question to identify the best available evidence, statistically summarized the evidence, and then assessed the quality of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach. We used the evidence-to-decision framework to formulate recommendations as strong or weak, or as a best practice statement. In addition, "in our practice" statements were included when evidence was inconclusive to issue a recommendation, but the panel felt that some guidance based on practice patterns may be appropriate. RESULTS: The panel provided 77 statements on the management and resuscitation of children with septic shock and other sepsis-associated organ dysfunction. Overall, six were strong recommendations, 49 were weak recommendations, and nine were best-practice statements. For 13 questions, no recommendations could be made; but, for 10 of these, "in our practice" statements were provided. In addition, 52 research priorities were identified. CONCLUSIONS: A large cohort of international experts was able to achieve consensus regarding many recommendations for the best care of children with sepsis, acknowledging that most aspects of care had relatively low quality of evidence resulting in the frequent issuance of weak recommendations. Despite this challenge, these recommendations regarding the management of children with septic shock and other sepsis-associated organ dysfunction provide a foundation for consistent care to improve outcomes and inform future research

Surviving Sepsis Campaign international guidelines for the management of septic shock and sepsis-associated organ dysfunction in children

OBJECTIVES: To develop evidence-based recommendations for clinicians caring for children (including infants, school-aged children, and adolescents) with septic shock and other sepsis-associated organ dysfunction. DESIGN: A panel of 49 international experts, representing 12 international organizations, as well as three methodologists and three public members was convened. Panel members assembled at key international meetings (for those panel members attending the conference), and a stand-alone meeting was held for all panel members in November 2018. A formal conflict-of-interest policy was developed at the onset of the process and enforced throughout. Teleconferences and electronic-based discussion among the chairs, co-chairs, methodologists, and group heads, as well as within subgroups, served as an integral part of the guideline development process. METHODS: The panel consisted of six subgroups: recognition and management of infection, hemodynamics and resuscitation, ventilation, endocrine and metabolic therapies, adjunctive therapies, and research priorities. We conducted a systematic review for each Population, Intervention, Control, and Outcomes question to identify the best available evidence, statistically summarized the evidence, and then assessed the quality of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach. We used the evidence-to-decision framework to formulate recommendations as strong or weak, or as a best practice statement. In addition, "in our practice" statements were included when evidence was inconclusive to issue a recommendation, but the panel felt that some guidance based on practice patterns may be appropriate. RESULTS: The panel provided 77 statements on the management and resuscitation of children with septic shock and other sepsis-associated organ dysfunction. Overall, six were strong recommendations, 52 were weak recommendations, and nine were best-practice statements. For 13 questions, no recommendations could be made; but, for 10 of these, "in our practice" statements were provided. In addition, 49 research priorities were identified. CONCLUSIONS: A large cohort of international experts was able to achieve consensus regarding many recommendations for the best care of children with sepsis, acknowledging that most aspects of care had relatively low quality of evidence resulting in the frequent issuance of weak recommendations. Despite this challenge, these recommendations regarding the management of children with septic shock and other sepsis-associated organ dysfunction provide a foundation for consistent care to improve outcomes and inform future research

Executive summary: Surviving Sepsis Campaign international guidelines for the management of septic shock and sepsis-associated organ dysfunction in children

In 2001, the Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) began to develop evidence-based guidelines and recommendations for the resuscitation and management of patients with sepsis. With the 2016 edition, the Society of Critical Care Medicine and European Society of Intensive Care Medicine recommended a separate task force be dedicated to guideline formulation for children. The objective of the “Surviving Sepsis Campaign International Guidelines for the Management of Septic Shock and Sepsis-associated Organ Dysfunction in Children” is to provide guidance for the care of infants, children, and adolescents with septic shock and other sepsis-associated organ dysfunction. Recommendations are intended to guide “best practice” rather than to establish a treatment algorithm or to define standard of care and cannot replace the clinician's decision-making capability when presented with a patient's unique set of clinical variables

Ethnicity and Outcomes from COVID-19: The ISARIC CCP-UK Prospective Observational Cohort Study of Hospitalised Patients

Background: Reports of ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 outcomes are conflicting and the reasons for any differences in outcomes are unclear. We investigated ethnic inequalities in critical care admission patterns, the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and in-hospital mortality, among hospitalised patients with COVID-19. Methods: We undertook a prospective cohort study in which dedicated research staff recruited hospitalised patients with suspected/confirmed COVID-19 from 260 hospitals across England, Scotland and Wales, collecting data directly and from records between 6th February and 8th May 2020 with follow-up until 22nd May 2020. Analysis used hierarchical regression models accounting for confounding, competing risks, and clustering of patients in hospitals. Potential mediators for death were explored with a three-way decomposition mediation analysis. Findings: Of 34,986 patients enrolled, 30,693 (88%) had ethnicity recorded: South Asian (1,388, 5%), East Asian (266, 1%), Black (1,094, 4%), Other Ethnic Minority (2,398, 8%) (collectively Ethnic Minorities), and White groups (25,547, 83%). Ethnic Minorities were younger and more likely to have diabetes (type 1/type 2) but had fewer other comorbidities such as chronic heart disease or dementia than the White group. No difference was seen between ethnic groups in the time from symptom onset to hospital admission, nor in illness severity at admission. Critical care admission was more common in South Asian (odds ratio 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.52), Black (1.36, 1.14 to 1.62), and Other Ethnic Minority (1.29, 1.13 to 1.47) groups compared to the White group, after adjusting for age, sex and location. This was broadly unchanged after adjustment for deprivation and comorbidities. Patterns were similar for IMV. Higher adjusted mortality was seen in the South Asian (hazard ratio 1.19, 1.05 to 1.36), but not East Asian (1.00, 0.74 to 1.35), Black (1.05, 0.91 to 1.26) or Other Ethnic Minority (0.99, 0.89 to 1.10) groups, compared to the White group. 18% (95% CI, 9% to 56%) of the excess mortality in South Asians was mediated by pre-existing diabetes. Interpretation: Ethnic Minorities in hospital with COVID-19 were more likely to be admitted to critical care and receive IMV than Whites, despite similar disease severity on admission, similar duration of symptoms, and being younger with fewer comorbidities. South Asians are at greater risk of dying, due at least in part to a higher prevalence of pre-existing diabetes. Trial Registration: The study was registered at https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN66726260. Funding Statement: This work is supported by grants from: the National Institute for Health Research [award CO-CIN-01], the Medical Research Council [grant MC_PC_19059] and by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), in collaboration with Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and the University of Oxford [NIHR award 200907], Wellcome Trust and Department for International Development [215091/Z/18/Z], and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1209135], and Liverpool Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre for providing infrastructure support for this research (Grant Reference: C18616/A25153). JSN-V-T is seconded to the Department of Health and Social Care, England (DHSC)

Executive summary: Surviving sepsis campaign international guidelines for the management of septic shock and sepsis-associated organ dysfunction in children

In 2001, the Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) began to develop evidence-based guidelines and recommendations for the resuscitation and management of patients with sepsis. With the 2016 edition, the Society of Critical Care Medicine and European Society of Intensive Care Medicine recommended a separate task force be dedicated to guideline formulation for children. The objective of the “Surviving Sepsis Campaign International Guidelines for the Management of Septic Shock and Sepsis-associated Organ Dysfunction in Children” is to provide guidance for the care of infants, children, and adolescents with septic shock and other sepsis-associated organ dysfunction. Recommendations are intended to guide “best practice” rather than to establish a treatment algorithm or to define standard of care and cannot replace the clinician's decision-making capability when presented with a patient's unique set of clinical variables

Miloš O. Bondy and intelligence from Protektorat Bohemia and Moravia

The contribution refers to Miloš O. Bondy and intelligence from Protektorat Bohemia and Moravia