71 research outputs found

    Development of a superhydrophobic polyurethane-based coating from a two-step plasma-fluoroalkyl silane treatment

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    A method of achieving a superhydrophobic surface based upon a highly filled polyurethane (PU) paint coating has been demonstrated through the use of a combined oxygen/argon plasma pretreatment and a fluoroalkyl silane (FAS) final treatment. The combined plasma-FAS treated PU surface has been investigated and characterised using: field emission gun secondary electron microscope (FEG-SEM); X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS); energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX); water contact angle analysis (WCA); atomic force microscopy (AFM), and; Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). It was found that the oxygen/argon plasma treatment increased both the surface roughness (Ra) and surface free energy (SFE) of the PU paint coating from approximately 60-320 nm, and, from ~52 to ~80 mN/m respectively. It was also found that the plasma process created a multiscale roughened texture through the process of differential ablation between the PU polymer and the barium sulphate solid content, which is present in the paint as an extender, and other additives. In addition, the process also imparted favourable polar groups into the PU surface from the ionised and radical oxygen species in the plasma. When the FAS coating was subsequently applied to the PU without prior plasma treatment, there was a significant increases in water contact angles. This parameter increased from approximately 60°on untreated PU to around 130°with FAS applied. In this case, the SFE decreased to ~7.5 mN/m and showed 42.0 at% fluorine present as indicated by XPS. However, subsequently applying the FAS polymer after plasma pretreatment takes advantage of the known synergistic relationship that exists between surface roughness and low surface free energy coatings. The two processes combined to create superhydrophobicity with a surface that exhibited water contact angles up to 153.1°. With this optimised process, the apparent SFE was 0.84 mN/m with a more highly fluorinated surface present. In this case 47.2 at% surface fluorine was observed by XPS. In addition to changes in SFE, plasma treatment was also observed to alter levels of surface gloss and colour. After exposure to 600 s of plasma gloss levels are shown to reduce from values of from ~50 to ~21 (GU), with small but significant corresponding increases in the lightness and yellowness of the surface

    Angular dependence of the bulk nucleation field Hc2 of aligned MgB2 crystallites

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    Studies on the new MgB2 superconductor, with a critical temperature Tc ~ 39 K, have evidenced its potential for applications although intense magnetic relaxation effects limit the critical current density, Jc, at high magnetic fields. This means that effective pinning centers must be added into the material microstructure, in order to halt dissipative flux movements. Concerning the basic microscopic mechanism to explain the superconductivity in MgB2, several experimental and theoretical works have pointed to the relevance of a phonon-mediated interaction, in the framework of the BCS theory. Questions have been raised about the relevant phonon modes, and the gap and Fermi surface anisotropies, in an effort to interpret spectroscopic and thermal data that give values between 2.4 and 4.5 for the gap energy ratio. Preliminary results on the anisotropy of Hc2 have shown a ratio, between the in-plane and perpendicular directions, around 1.7 for aligned MgB2 crystallites and 1.8 for epitaxial thin films. Here we show a study on the angular dependence of Hc2 pointing to a Fermi velocity anisotropy around 2.5. This anisotropy certainly implies the use of texturization techniques to optimize Jc in MgB2 wires and other polycrystalline components.Comment: 10 pages + 4 Figs.; Revised version accepted in Phys. Rev.

    Photoelectron angular distributions from resonant two-photon ionization of adiabatically aligned naphthalene and aniline molecules

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    Photoelectron images have been measured following the ionisation of aligned distributions of gas phase naphthalene and aniline molecules. Alignment in the adiabatic regime was achieved by interaction with a 100 ps infrared laser pulse, with ionisation achieved in a two-photon resonant scheme using a low intensity UV pulse of ∼6 ps duration. The resulting images are found to exhibit anisotropy that increases when the alignment pulse is present, with the aniline PADs peaking along the polarisation vector of the ionising light and the naphthalene PADs developing a characteristic four-lobed structure. Photoelectron angular distributions (PADs) that result from the ionisation of unaligned and fully aligned distributions of molecules are calculated using the ePolyScat ab initio suite and converted into two-dimensional photoelectron images. In the case of naphthalene excellent agreement is observed between experiment and the simulation for the fully aligned distribution, showing that the alignment step allows us to probe the molecular frame, but in the case of aniline it is clear that additional processes occur following the one-photon resonant step

    Study on COgnition and Prognosis in the Elderly (SCOPE): baseline characteristics

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    Blood Press. 2000;9(2-3):146-51. Study on COgnition and Prognosis in the Elderly (SCOPE): baseline characteristics. Hansson L, Lithell H, Skoog I, Baro F, Bánki CM, Breteler M, Castaigne A, Correia M, Degaute JP, Elmfeldt D, Engedal K, Farsang C, Ferro J, Hachinski V, Hofman A, James OF, Krisin E, Leeman M, de Leeuw PW, Leys D, Lobo A, Nordby G, Olofsson B, Opolski G, Prince M, Reischies FM. University of Uppsala, Department of Public Health, Clinical Hypertension Research, Sweden. Abstract The Study on COgnition and Prognosis in the Elderly (SCOPE) is a multi-centre, prospective, randomized, double-blind, parallel-group study. The primary objective of SCOPE is to assess the effect of the angiotensin II type 1 (AT1) receptor blocker, candesartan cilexetil 8-16 mg once daily, on major cardiovascular events in elderly patients (70-89 years of age) with mild hypertension (DBP 90-99 and/or SBP 160-179 mmHg). The secondary objectives of the study are to test the hypothesis that antihypertensive therapy can prevent cognitive decline (as measured by the Mini Mental State Examination, MMSE) and dementia, and to assess the effect of therapy on total mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, renal function, and hospitalization. A total of 4964 patients from 15 participating countries were recruited during the randomization phase of SCOPE, exceeding the target population of 4000. The mean age of the patients at enrolment was 76 years, the ratio of male to female patients was approximately 1:2, and 52% of patients were already being treated with an antihypertensive agent at enrolment. The majority of patients (88%) were educated to at least primary school level. At randomization, mean sitting blood pressure values were SBP 166 mmHg and DBP 90 mmHg, and the mean MMSE score was 28. Previous cardiovascular disease in the study population included myocardial infarction (4%), stroke (4%) and atrial fibrillation (4%). Men, more often than women, had a history of previous MI, stroke and atrial fibrillation. A greater percentage of men were smokers (13% vs 6% in women) and had attended university (11% vs 3% of women). Of the randomized patients, 21% were 80 years of age. In this age group smoking was less common (4% vs 10% for 70-79-year-olds) and fewer had attended university (4% vs 7% for 70-79-year-olds). The incidence of MI was similar in both age groups. However, stroke and atrial fibrillation had occurred approximately twice as frequently in the older patients. The patients' mean age at baseline was similar in the participating countries, and most countries showed the approximate 1:2 ratio for male to female patients. There was also little inter-country variation in terms of mean SBP, DBP or MMSE score. However, there was considerable regional variation in the percentage of patients on therapy prior to enrolment. PMID: 10855739 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE

    Study on COgnition and Prognosis in the Elderly (SCOPE)

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    Blood Press. 1999;8(3):177-83. Study on COgnition and Prognosis in the Elderly (SCOPE). Hansson L, Lithell H, Skoog I, Baro F, Bánki CM, Breteler M, Carbonin PU, Castaigne A, Correia M, Degaute JP, Elmfeldt D, Engedal K, Farsang C, Ferro J, Hachinski V, Hofman A, James OF, Krisin E, Leeman M, de Leeuw PW, Leys D, Lobo A, Nordby G, Olofsson B, Zanchetti A, et al. University of Uppsala, Department of Public Health, Sweden. Abstract The Study on COgnition and Prognosis in the Elderly (SCOPE) is a multicentre, prospective, randomized, double-blind, parallel-group study designed to compare the effects of candesartan cilexetil and placebo in elderly patients with mild hypertension. The primary objective of the study is to assess the effect of candesartan cilexetil on major cardiovascular events. The secondary objectives of the study are to assess the effect of candesartan cilexetil on cognitive function and on total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, renal function, hospitalization, quality of life and health economics. Male and female patients aged between 70 and 89 years, with a sitting systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 160-179 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) of 90-99 mmHg, and a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score of 24 or above, are eligible for the study. The overall target study population is 4000 patients, at least 1000 of whom are also to be assessed for quality of life and health economics data. After an open run-in period lasting 1-3 months, during which patients are assessed for eligibility and those who are already on antihypertensive therapy at enrolment are switched to hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg o.d., patients are randomized to receive either candesartan cilexetil 8 mg once daily (o.d.) or matching placebo o.d. At subsequent study visits, if SBP remains >160 mmHg, or has decreased by 85 mmHg, study treatment is doubled to candesartan cilexetil 16 mg o.d. or two placebo tablets o.d. Recruitment was completed in January 1999. At that time 4964 patients had been randomized. All randomized patients will be followed for an additional 2 years. If the event rate is lower than anticipated, the follow-up will be prolonged. PMID: 10595696 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE

    Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

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    Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14�294 geography�year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95 uncertainty interval 61·4�61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5�72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7�17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5�70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1 (2·6�5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0 (15·8�18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1 (12·6�16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1 (11·9�14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1, 39·1�44·6), malaria (43·1, 34·7�51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8, 24·8�34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1, 19·3�37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146�000 deaths, 118�000�183�000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393�000 deaths, 228�000�532�000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost YLLs) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

    Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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    BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

    Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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    Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

    Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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    Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens
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