Essays on the Social Impacts of Climate

It has been hypothesized that local or global climatic conditions can affect societies in a variety of ways. However, to date, it has been difficult to measure the social impact of climate, so the scale and scope of its influence on populations remains mostly theoretical. This dissertation integrates data and quantitative methods from climate science, economics and political science to develop new techniques for empirically measuring the the social impacts of climate. These techniques are used to measure large-scale dynamical relationships between climatological conditions and the response of the societies that are exposed to them. In general, the response of societies to climatological forcing is found to be larger than previously thought. The concluding chapter discusses how these findings may inform policies that govern the global environment and economic development

Protocol for the ProFHER (PROximal Fracture of the Humerus: Evaluation by Randomisation) trial: a pragmatic multi-centre randomised controlled trial of surgical versus non-surgical treatment for proximal fracture of the humerus in adults

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Proximal humeral fractures, which occur mainly in older adults, account for approximately 4 to 5% of all fractures. Approximately 40% of these fractures are displaced fractures involving the surgical neck. Management of this group of fractures is often challenging and the outcome is frequently unsatisfactory. In particular it is not clear whether surgery gives better outcomes than non-surgical management. Currently there is much variation in the use of surgery and a lack of good quality evidence to inform this decision.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>We aim to undertake a pragmatic UK-based multi-centre randomised controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of surgical versus standard non-surgical treatment for adults with an acute closed displaced fracture of the proximal humerus with involvement of the surgical neck. The choice of surgical intervention is left to the surgeon, who must use techniques that they are fully experienced with. This will avoid 'learning curve' problems. We will promote good standards of non-surgical care, similarly insisting on care-provider competence, and emphasize the need for comparable provision of rehabilitation for both groups of patients.</p> <p>We aim to recruit 250 patients from a minimum of 18 NHS trauma centres throughout the UK. These patients will be followed-up for 2 years. The primary outcome is the Oxford Shoulder Score, which will be collected via questionnaires completed by the trial participants at 6, 12 and 24 months. This is a 12-item condition-specific questionnaire providing a total score based on the person's subjective assessment of pain and activities of daily living impairment. We will also collect data for other outcomes, including general health measures and complications, and for an economic evaluation. Additionally, we plan a systematic collection of reasons for non-inclusion of eligible patients who were not recruited into the trial, and their baseline characteristics, treatment preferences and intended treatment.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This article presents the protocol for a multi-centre randomised controlled trial. It gives extensive details of, and the basis for, the chosen methods, and describes the key measures taken to avoid bias and to ensure validity.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN50850043</p

Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change

The links between climate change, economic growth and economic development have gained increasing attention over recent years in both the academic and policy literature. However, most of the existing literature has tended to focus on direct, short run effects of climate change on the economy, for example due to extreme weather events and changes in agricultural growing conditions. In this paper we review potential effects of climate change on the prospects for long-run economic development. These effects might operate directly, via the role of geography (including climate) as a fundamental determinant of relative prosperity, or indirectly by modifying the environmental context in which political and economic institutions evolve. We consider potential mechanisms from climate change to long-run economic development that have been relatively neglected to date, including, for instance, effects on the distribution of income and political power. We conclude with some suggestions for areas of future research

A Single Nucleotide in Stem Loop II of 5′-Untranslated Region Contributes to Virulence of Enterovirus 71 in Mice

BACKGROUND: Enterovirus 71 (EV71) has emerged as a neuroinvasive virus responsible for several large outbreaks in the Asia-Pacific region while virulence determinant remains unexplored. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this report, we investigated increased virulence of unadapted EV71 clinical isolate 237 as compared with isolate 4643 in mice. A fragment 12 nucleotides in length in stem loop (SL) II of 237 5'-untranslated region (UTR) visibly reduced survival time and rate in mice was identified by constructing a series of infectious clones harboring chimeric 5'-UTR. In cells transfected with bicistronic plasmids, and replicon RNAs, the 12-nt fragment of isolate 237 enhanced translational activities and accelerated replication of subgenomic EV71. Finally, single nucleotide change from cytosine to uridine at base 158 in this short fragment of 5'-UTR was proven to reduce viral translation and EV71 virulence in mice. Results collectively indicated a pivotal role of novel virulence determinant C158 on virus translation in vitro and EV71 virulence in vivo. CONCLUSIONS: These results presented the first reported virulence determinant in EV71 5'-UTR and first position discovered from unadapted isolates

Pilot Scale Production of Highly Efficacious and Stable Enterovirus 71 Vaccine Candidates

BACKGROUND: Enterovirus 71 (EV71) has caused several epidemics of hand, foot and mouth diseases (HFMD) in Asia and now is being recognized as an important neurotropic virus. Effective medications and prophylactic vaccine against EV71 infection are urgently needed. Based on the success of inactivated poliovirus vaccine, a prototype chemically inactivated EV71 vaccine candidate has been developed and currently in human phase 1 clinical trial. PRINCIPAL FINDING: In this report, we present the development of a serum-free cell-based EV71 vaccine. The optimization at each step of the manufacturing process was investigated, characterized and quantified. In the up-stream process development, different commercially available cell culture media either containing serum or serum-free was screened for cell growth and virus yield using the roller-bottle technology. VP-SFM serum-free medium was selected based on the Vero cell growth profile and EV71 virus production. After the up-stream processes (virus harvest, diafiltration and concentration), a combination of gel-filtration liquid chromatography and/or sucrose-gradient ultracentrifugation down-stream purification processes were investigated at a pilot scale of 40 liters each. Although the combination of chromatography and sucrose-gradient ultracentrifugation produced extremely pure EV71 infectious virus particles, the overall yield of vaccine was 7-10% as determined by a VP2-based quantitative ELISA. Using chromatography as the downstream purification, the virus yield was 30-43%. To retain the integrity of virus neutralization epitopes and the stability of the vaccine product, the best virus inactivation was found to be 0.025% formalin-treatment at 37 °C for 3 to 6 days. Furthermore, the formalin-inactivated virion vaccine candidate was found to be stable for >18 months at 4 °C and a microgram of viral proteins formulated with alum adjuvant could induce strong virus-neutralizing antibody responses in mice, rats, rabbits, and non-human primates. CONCLUSION: These results provide valuable information supporting the current cell-based serum-free EV71 vaccine candidate going into human Phase I clinical trials

Temperature Shocks and Welfare Costs

This paper examines the welfare implications of rising temperatures. Using a standard VAR, we empirically show that a temperature shock has a sizable, negative and statistically significant impact on TFP, output, and labor productivity. We rationalize these findings within a production economy featuring long-run temperature risk. In the model, macro-aggregates drop in response to a temperature shock, consistent with the novel evidence in the data. Such adverse effects are long-lasting. Over a 50-year horizon, a one-standard deviation temperature shock lowers both cumulative output and labor productivity growth by 1.4 percentage points. Based on the model, we also show that temperature risk is associated with non-negligible welfare costs which amount to 18.4% of the agent's lifetime utility and grow exponentially with the size of the impact of temperature on TFP. Finally, we show that faster adaptation to temperature shocks results in lower welfare costs. These welfare benefits become substantially higher in the presence of permanent improvements in the speed of adaptation

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms