El modelo de ayudas directas en la PAC post-2013: análisis de impactos de escenarios potenciales

Following their introduction in 1992, direct payments have become one of the main instruments of the Common Agricultural Policy. The aim of this study is to analyse potential scenarios of harmonization of direct payments in the CAP post-2013. In doing so, we use the CAPRI model, which represents the functioning of agricultural markets at the global level and simultaneously models CAP measures at the EU regional level. Results suggest that while a flatter rate of direct payments would have minor impacts on agriculture at the EU level, it would imply substantial redistributive effects, both across regions and Member States.Direct payments, CAPRI, agro-economic models, CAP post-2013, agricultural policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, C60, Q11, Q18,

El modelo de ayudas directas en la PAC post-2013: análisis de impactos de escenarios potenciales

Desde su introducción en 1992, las ayudas directas se han perfilado como uno de los principales instrumentos de apoyo al sector agrario de la UE. Este trabajo analiza potenciales escenarios de convergencia de las ayudas directas en la PAC post-2013. Se utiliza para ello el modelo CAPRI, que permite representar el funcionamiento de los mercados agroalimentarios a escala global así como incorporar las medidas de política agraria a nivel regional. Los resultados indican que un pago único más nivelado tendría impactos mínimos a nivel global de la UE pero conllevaría efectos redistributivos considerables, tanto entre regiones como entre Estados Miembros

Atrasentan and renal events in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (SONAR): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Background: Short-term treatment for people with type 2 diabetes using a low dose of the selective endothelin A receptor antagonist atrasentan reduces albuminuria without causing significant sodium retention. We report the long-term effects of treatment with atrasentan on major renal outcomes. Methods: We did this double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial at 689 sites in 41 countries. We enrolled adults aged 18–85 years with type 2 diabetes, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)25–75 mL/min per 1·73 m 2 of body surface area, and a urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR)of 300–5000 mg/g who had received maximum labelled or tolerated renin–angiotensin system inhibition for at least 4 weeks. Participants were given atrasentan 0·75 mg orally daily during an enrichment period before random group assignment. Those with a UACR decrease of at least 30% with no substantial fluid retention during the enrichment period (responders)were included in the double-blind treatment period. Responders were randomly assigned to receive either atrasentan 0·75 mg orally daily or placebo. All patients and investigators were masked to treatment assignment. The primary endpoint was a composite of doubling of serum creatinine (sustained for ≥30 days)or end-stage kidney disease (eGFR <15 mL/min per 1·73 m 2 sustained for ≥90 days, chronic dialysis for ≥90 days, kidney transplantation, or death from kidney failure)in the intention-to-treat population of all responders. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of their assigned study treatment. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01858532. Findings: Between May 17, 2013, and July 13, 2017, 11 087 patients were screened; 5117 entered the enrichment period, and 4711 completed the enrichment period. Of these, 2648 patients were responders and were randomly assigned to the atrasentan group (n=1325)or placebo group (n=1323). Median follow-up was 2·2 years (IQR 1·4–2·9). 79 (6·0%)of 1325 patients in the atrasentan group and 105 (7·9%)of 1323 in the placebo group had a primary composite renal endpoint event (hazard ratio [HR]0·65 [95% CI 0·49–0·88]; p=0·0047). Fluid retention and anaemia adverse events, which have been previously attributed to endothelin receptor antagonists, were more frequent in the atrasentan group than in the placebo group. Hospital admission for heart failure occurred in 47 (3·5%)of 1325 patients in the atrasentan group and 34 (2·6%)of 1323 patients in the placebo group (HR 1·33 [95% CI 0·85–2·07]; p=0·208). 58 (4·4%)patients in the atrasentan group and 52 (3·9%)in the placebo group died (HR 1·09 [95% CI 0·75–1·59]; p=0·65). Interpretation: Atrasentan reduced the risk of renal events in patients with diabetes and chronic kidney disease who were selected to optimise efficacy and safety. These data support a potential role for selective endothelin receptor antagonists in protecting renal function in patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk of developing end-stage kidney disease. Funding: AbbVie

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

El modelo de ayudas directas en la PAC post-2013: análisis de impactos de escenarios potenciales

Following their introduction in 1992, direct payments have become one of the main instruments of the Common Agricultural Policy. The aim of this study is to analyse potential scenarios of harmonization of direct payments in the CAP post-2013. In doing so, we use the CAPRI model, which represents the functioning of agricultural markets at the global level and simultaneously models CAP measures at the EU regional level. Results suggest that while a flatter rate of direct payments would have minor impacts on agriculture at the EU level, it would imply substantial redistributive effects, both across regions and Member States

Evaluating Transmission Prices between Global Agricultural Markets and Consumers' Food Price Indices in the EU

The rise of price levels and volatility of world agricultural commodities since 2006-2008 was followed by increased and more volatile food price inflation around the world. Using error correction models, this paper evaluates the velocity and extent to which world agricultural commodity price movements affect consumer food prices in the 28 EU's Member States. Results show a significant long run relationship between world agricultural commodity prices and food consumer prices in over half of the Member States. They present varying long run price transmission elasticities and a slow adjustment of prices. In general first members of the Eurozone have lower transmission elasticities than the others

New pesticides regulation: potential economic impacts of the withdrawal of Pendimethalin in horticultural crops

The Thematic Strategy on the Sustainable Use of Pesticides moves forward towards the sustainability of agriculture fostering the use of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) practices in the European Union (EU). EC Regulation 1107/2009 was adopted in this framework leading to the eventual drop in the Vademecum of authorized substances of some important pesticides which are presently used in EU agriculture. Herbicide Pendimethalin will have to renew its registration in 2016 under the new regulation and there is a high probability that it will be removed. In this study we analyze the potential impact of the prohibition of Pendimethalin in two export driven horticultural crops grown in Southeastern Spain - lettuce and celery - to provide an illustration of possible consequences of the loss of certain active substances due to the new regulation. To do so, gross margin stochastic models are developed and used to generate Monte-Carlo simulations to look at farms’ economic results and their production risks. Econometric models are used to examine consumers’ and producers’ surplus in export markets of lettuce and celery. The results show that the Pendimethalin ban might modify the economic risk profile that the farm faces, affecting the crops’ profitability in the short-term. These changes would pass on to markets through shifts in supply and price and finally to European consumers, who would be the major losers

Association between convalescent plasma treatment and mortality in COVID-19: a collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

Abstract Background Convalescent plasma has been widely used to treat COVID-19 and is under investigation in numerous randomized clinical trials, but results are publicly available only for a small number of trials. The objective of this study was to assess the benefits of convalescent plasma treatment compared to placebo or no treatment and all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19, using data from all available randomized clinical trials, including unpublished and ongoing trials (Open Science Framework, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/GEHFX ). Methods In this collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis, clinical trial registries (ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform), the Cochrane COVID-19 register, the LOVE database, and PubMed were searched until April 8, 2021. Investigators of trials registered by March 1, 2021, without published results were contacted via email. Eligible were ongoing, discontinued and completed randomized clinical trials that compared convalescent plasma with placebo or no treatment in COVID-19 patients, regardless of setting or treatment schedule. Aggregated mortality data were extracted from publications or provided by investigators of unpublished trials and combined using the Hartung–Knapp–Sidik–Jonkman random effects model. We investigated the contribution of unpublished trials to the overall evidence. Results A total of 16,477 patients were included in 33 trials (20 unpublished with 3190 patients, 13 published with 13,287 patients). 32 trials enrolled only hospitalized patients (including 3 with only intensive care unit patients). Risk of bias was low for 29/33 trials. Of 8495 patients who received convalescent plasma, 1997 died (23%), and of 7982 control patients, 1952 died (24%). The combined risk ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.92; 1.02) with between-study heterogeneity not beyond chance (I2 = 0%). The RECOVERY trial had 69.8% and the unpublished evidence 25.3% of the weight in the meta-analysis. Conclusions Convalescent plasma treatment of patients with COVID-19 did not reduce all-cause mortality. These results provide strong evidence that convalescent plasma treatment for patients with COVID-19 should not be used outside of randomized trials. Evidence synthesis from collaborations among trial investigators can inform both evidence generation and evidence application in patient care

Association between convalescent plasma treatment and mortality in COVID-19: a collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

Abstract Background Convalescent plasma has been widely used to treat COVID-19 and is under investigation in numerous randomized clinical trials, but results are publicly available only for a small number of trials. The objective of this study was to assess the benefits of convalescent plasma treatment compared to placebo or no treatment and all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19, using data from all available randomized clinical trials, including unpublished and ongoing trials (Open Science Framework, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/GEHFX ). Methods In this collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis, clinical trial registries (ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform), the Cochrane COVID-19 register, the LOVE database, and PubMed were searched until April 8, 2021. Investigators of trials registered by March 1, 2021, without published results were contacted via email. Eligible were ongoing, discontinued and completed randomized clinical trials that compared convalescent plasma with placebo or no treatment in COVID-19 patients, regardless of setting or treatment schedule. Aggregated mortality data were extracted from publications or provided by investigators of unpublished trials and combined using the Hartung–Knapp–Sidik–Jonkman random effects model. We investigated the contribution of unpublished trials to the overall evidence. Results A total of 16,477 patients were included in 33 trials (20 unpublished with 3190 patients, 13 published with 13,287 patients). 32 trials enrolled only hospitalized patients (including 3 with only intensive care unit patients). Risk of bias was low for 29/33 trials. Of 8495 patients who received convalescent plasma, 1997 died (23%), and of 7982 control patients, 1952 died (24%). The combined risk ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.92; 1.02) with between-study heterogeneity not beyond chance (I2 = 0%). The RECOVERY trial had 69.8% and the unpublished evidence 25.3% of the weight in the meta-analysis. Conclusions Convalescent plasma treatment of patients with COVID-19 did not reduce all-cause mortality. These results provide strong evidence that convalescent plasma treatment for patients with COVID-19 should not be used outside of randomized trials. Evidence synthesis from collaborations among trial investigators can inform both evidence generation and evidence application in patient care

Combined dark matter searches towards dwarf spheroidal galaxies with Fermi-LAT, HAWC, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS

Cosmological and astrophysical observations suggest that 85\% of the total matter of the Universe is made of Dark Matter (DM). However, its nature remains one of the most challenging and fundamental open questions of particle physics. Assuming particle DM, this exotic form of matter cannot consist of Standard Model (SM) particles. Many models have been developed to attempt unraveling the nature of DM such as Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs), the most favored particle candidates. WIMP annihilations and decay could produce SM particles which in turn hadronize and decay to give SM secondaries such as high energy $\gamma$ rays. In the framework of indirect DM search, observations of promising targets are used to search for signatures of DM annihilation. Among these, the dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) are commonly favored owing to their expected high DM content and negligible astrophysical background. In this work, we present the very first combination of 20 dSph observations, performed by the Fermi-LAT, HAWC, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS collaborations in order to maximize the sensitivity of DM searches and improve the current results. We use a joint maximum likelihood approach combining each experiment's individual analysis to derive more constraining upper limits on the WIMP DM self-annihilation cross-section as a function of DM particle mass. We present new DM constraints over the widest mass range ever reported, extending from 5 GeV to 100 TeV thanks to the combination of these five different $\gamma$-ray instruments