Clinical decision modeling system

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Decision analysis techniques can be applied in complex situations involving uncertainty and the consideration of multiple objectives. Classical decision modeling techniques require elicitation of too many parameter estimates and their conditional (joint) probabilities, and have not therefore been applied to the problem of identifying high-performance, cost-effective combinations of clinical options for diagnosis or treatments where many of the objectives are unknown or even unspecified.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We designed a Java-based software resource, the Clinical Decision Modeling System (CDMS), to implement Naïve Decision Modeling, and provide a use case based on published performance evaluation measures of various strategies for breast and lung cancer detection. Because cost estimates for many of the newer methods are not yet available, we assume equal cost. Our use case reveals numerous potentially high-performance combinations of clinical options for the detection of breast and lung cancer.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Naïve Decision Modeling is a highly practical applied strategy which guides investigators through the process of establishing evidence-based integrative translational clinical research priorities. CDMS is not designed for clinical decision support. Inputs include performance evaluation measures and costs of various clinical options. The software finds trees with expected emergent performance characteristics and average cost per patient that meet stated filtering criteria. Key to the utility of the software is sophisticated graphical elements, including a tree browser, a receiver-operator characteristic surface plot, and a histogram of expected average cost per patient. The analysis pinpoints the potentially most relevant pairs of clinical options ('critical pairs') for which empirical estimates of conditional dependence may be critical. The assumption of independence can be tested with retrospective studies prior to the initiation of clinical trials designed to estimate clinical impact. High-performance combinations of clinical options may exist for breast and lung cancer detection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The software could be found useful in simplifying the objective-driven planning of complex integrative clinical studies without requiring a multi-attribute utility function, and it could lead to efficient integrative translational clinical study designs that move beyond simple pair wise competitive studies. Collaborators, who traditionally might compete to prioritize their own individual clinical options, can use the software as a common framework and guide to work together to produce increased understanding on the benefits of using alternative clinical combinations to affect strategic and cost-effective clinical workflows.</p

Genome-wide analyses as part of the international FTLD-TDP whole-genome sequencing consortium reveals novel disease risk factors and increases support for immune dysfunction in FTLD

Frontotemporal lobar degeneration with neuronal inclusions of the TAR DNA-binding protein 43 (FTLD-TDP) represents the most common pathological subtype of FTLD. We established the international FTLD-TDP whole-genome sequencing consortium to thoroughly characterize the known genetic causes of FTLD-TDP and identify novel genetic risk factors. Through the study of 1131 unrelated Caucasian patients, we estimated that C9orf72 repeat expansions and GRN loss-of-function mutations account for 25.5% and 13.9% of FTLD-TDP patients, respectively. Mutations in TBK1 (1.5%) and other known FTLD genes (1.4%) were rare, and the disease in 57.7% of FTLD-TDP patients was unexplained by the known FTLD genes. To unravel the contribution of common genetic factors to the FTLD-TDP etiology in these patients, we conducted a two-stage association study comprising the analysis of whole-genome sequencing data from 517 FTLD-TDP patients and 838 controls, followed by targeted genotyping of the most associated genomic loci in 119 additional FTLD-TDP patients and 1653 controls. We identified three genome-wide significant FTLD-TDP risk loci: one new locus at chromosome 7q36 within the DPP6 gene led by rs118113626 (p value = 4.82e − 08, OR = 2.12), and two known loci: UNC13A, led by rs1297319 (p value = 1.27e − 08, OR = 1.50) and HLA-DQA2 led by rs17219281 (p value = 3.22e − 08, OR = 1.98). While HLA represents a locus previously implicated in clinical FTLD and related neurodegenerative disorders, the association signal in our study is independent from previously reported associations. Through inspection of our whole-genome sequence data for genes with an excess of rare loss-of-function variants in FTLD-TDP patients (n ≥ 3) as compared to controls (n = 0), we further discovered a possible role for genes functioning within the TBK1-related immune pathway (e.g., DHX58, TRIM21, IRF7) in the genetic etiology of FTLD-TDP. Together, our study based on the largest cohort of unrelated FTLD-TDP patients assembled to date provides a comprehensive view of the genetic landscape of FTLD-TDP, nominates novel FTLD-TDP risk loci, and strongly implicates the immune pathway in FTLD-TDP pathogenesis

Search for Higgs boson pair production in the gamma gamma b(b)over-bar final state in pp collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search is presented for the production of a pair of Higgs bosons, where one decays into two photons and the other one into a bottom quark-antiquark pair. The analysis is performed using proton-proton collision data at root s = 13 TeV recorded in 2016 by the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1) . The results are in agreement with standard model (SM) predictions. In a search for resonant production, upper limits are set on the cross section for new spin-0 or spin-2 particles. For the SM-like nonresonant production hypothesis, the data exclude a product of cross section and branching fraction larger than 2.0 fb at 95% confidence level (CL), corresponding to about 24 times the SM prediction. Values of the effective Higgs boson self-coupling K X are constrained to be within the range -11 < K-lambda < 17 at 95% CL, assuming all other Higgs boson couplings are at their SM value. The constraints on K-lambda, are the most restrictive to date. (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.Peer reviewe

Search for the X(5568) State Decaying into B-s(0)pi(+/-) in Proton-Proton Collisions at root s=8 TeV

A search for resonancelike structures in the B-s(0)pi(+/-) invariant mass spectrum is performed using proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC at root s = 8 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb(-1). The B-s(0) mesons are reconstructed in the decay chain B-s(0) -> J/Psi phi, with J/Psi -> mu(+) mu(-) and phi -> K+K-. The B-s(0)pi(+/-) invariant mass distribution shows no statistically significant peaks for different selection requirements on the reconstructed B-s(0) and pi(+/-) candidates. Upper limits are set on the relative production rates of the X(5568) and B-s(0) states times the branching fraction of the decay X(5568)(+/-) -> B-s(0)pi(+/-). In addition, upper limits are obtained as a function of the mass and the natural width of possible exotic states decaying into B-s(0)pi(+/-).Peer reviewe

Measurement of nuclear modification factors of ϒ(1S), ϒ(2S), and ϒ(3S) mesons in PbPb collisions at √sNN = 5.02 TeV

The cross sections for ϒ(1S), ϒ(2S), and ϒ(3S) production in lead–lead (PbPb) and proton–proton (pp) collisions at √sNN = 5.02 TeV have been measured using the CMS detector at the LHC. The nuclear modification factors, RAA, derived from the PbPb-to-pp ratio of yields for each state, are studied as functions of meson rapidity and transverse momentum, as well as PbPb collision centrality. The yields of all three states are found to be significantly suppressed, and compatible with a sequential ordering of the suppression, RAA(ϒ(1S)) > RAA(ϒ(2S)) > RAA(ϒ(3S)). The suppression of ϒ(1S) is larger than that seen at √sNN = 2.76 TeV, although the two are compatible within uncertainties. The upper limit on the RAA of ϒ(3S) integrated over pT, rapidity and centrality is 0.096 at 95% confidence level, which is the strongest suppression observed for a quarkonium state in heavy ion collisions to date

Search for excited leptons in final states in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search is presented for excited electrons and muons in ℓℓγ final states at the LHC. The search is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected with the CMS detector in 2016. This is the first search for excited leptons at s√ = 13 TeV. The observation is consistent with the standard model background prediction, and the most stringent exclusion limits to date are set on the excited lepton mass and the compositeness scale, at 95% confidence level. Excited electrons and muons are excluded for masses below 3.9 and 3.8 TeV, respectively, under the assumption that the excited lepton mass equals the compositeness scale. The best observed limit on the compositeness scale is obtained with an excited lepton mass of around 1.0 TeV, excluding values below 25 TeV for both excited electrons and muons

Search for resonant tt¯ production in proton-proton collisions at s√=13 TeV

A search for a heavy resonance decaying into a top quark and antiquark (tt¯) pair is performed using proton-proton collisions at s√=13 TeV. The search uses the data set collected with the CMS detector in 2016, which corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1. The analysis considers three exclusive final states and uses reconstruction techniques that are optimized for top quarks with high Lorentz boosts, which requires the use of nonisolated leptons and jet substructure techniques. No significant excess of events relative to the expected yield from standard model processes is observed. Upper limits on the production cross section of heavy resonances decaying to a tt¯ pair are calculated. Limits are derived for a leptophobic topcolor Z′ resonance with widths of 1, 10, and 30%, relative to the mass of the resonance, and exclude masses up to 3.80, 5.25, and 6.65 TeV, respectively. Kaluza-Klein excitations of the gluon in the Randall-Sundrum model are excluded up to 4.55 TeV. To date, these are the most stringent limits on tt¯ resonances

Comparison of Pittsburgh compound B and florbetapir in cross-sectional and longitudinal studies

Introduction: Quantitative in vivo measurement of brain amyloid burden is important for both research and clinical purposes. However, the existence of multiple imaging tracers presents challenges to the interpretation of such measurements. This study presents a direct comparison of Pittsburgh compound B-based and florbetapir-based amyloid imaging in the same participants from two independent cohorts using a crossover design. Methods: Pittsburgh compound B and florbetapir amyloid PET imaging data from three different cohorts were analyzed using previously established pipelines to obtain global amyloid burden measurements. These measurements were converted to the Centiloid scale to allow fair comparison between the two tracers. The mean and inter-individual variability of the two tracers were compared using multivariate linear models both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Results: Global amyloid burden measured using the two tracers were strongly correlated in both cohorts. However, higher variability was observed when florbetapir was used as the imaging tracer. The variability may be partially caused by white matter signal as partial volume correction reduces the variability and improves the correlations between the two tracers. Amyloid burden measured using both tracers was found to be in association with clinical and psychometric measurements. Longitudinal comparison of the two tracers was also performed in similar but separate cohorts whose baseline amyloid load was considered elevated (i.e., amyloid positive). No significant difference was detected in the average annualized rate of change measurements made with these two tracers. Discussion: Although the amyloid burden measurements were quite similar using these two tracers as expected, difference was observable even after conversion into the Centiloid scale. Further investigation is warranted to identify optimal strategies to harmonize amyloid imaging data acquired using different tracers