Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings The global TFR decreased from 2.72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2.66-2.79) in 2000 to 2.31 (2.17-2.46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134.5 million (131.5-137.8) in 2000 to a peak of 139.6 million (133.0-146.9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135.3 million (127.2-144.1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2.1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27.1% (95% UI 26.4-27.8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67.2 years (95% UI 66.8-67.6) in 2000 to 73.5 years (72.8-74.3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50.7 million (49.5-51.9) in 2000 to 56.5 million (53.7-59.2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9.6 million (9.1-10.3) in 2000 to 5.0 million (4.3-6.0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25.7%, from 6.2 billion (6.0-6.3) in 2000 to 7.7 billion (7.5-8.0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58.6 years (56.1-60.8) in 2000 to 63.5 years (60.8-66.1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Lipid and glucose metabolism of broilers (Gallus gallus domesticus) experimentally infected with Eimeria acervulina Tyzzer, 1929 oocysts

Lipid and glucose metabolism of 76 ten-day-old Cobb male broilers, experimentally infected with Eimeria acervulina, was studied for 30 days. Birds were distributed in 2 groups: one infected with 1x10(6) E. acervulina sporulated oocysts, and the other inoculated with distilled water. Pathological e biochemical liver changes were assessed, as well as plasma glucose concentrations and total cholesterol, HDL, LDL, VLDL, fatty-acid, and triglyceride levels in the serum. The infected broilers presented hypoglycemia associated with a reduction in liver glycogen. In addition, these birds developed fatty liver, and there were changes in all lipid classes in the serum. Lipid and glucose metabolism was dramatically changed in broilers experimentally infected with 1x10(6) E. acervulina oocysts

Occurrence of gastrointestinal parasites in goat kids Ocorrência de parasitos gastrintestinais em cabritos

Fecal samples from male and female goat kids, of different breeds and up to one year of age, were analyzed to determine egg and oocyst counts per gram of feces (EPG and OPG, respectively), and fecal culturing was performed to identify nematode genera. Helminth eggs and Eimeria spp. oocysts were found in 93.06% (188/202) and 77.22% (156/202) of the fecal samples, respectively. From fecal cultures, the following genera were identified: Cooperia in 11.88% (24/202), Haemonchus in 51.98% (105/202), Oesophagostomum in 9.4% (19/202), Strongyloides in 5.94 (12/202) and Trichostrongylus in 20.79% (42/202) of the samples. The Eimeria species found were E. alijevi in 25.24% (51/202), E. arloingi in 7.42% (15/202), E. caprina in 2.97% (6/202), E. caprovina in 10.39% (21/202), E. christenseni in 4.45% (9/202), E. joklchijevi in 11.38% (23/202), E. hirci in 9.4% (19/202) and E. ninakohlyakimovae in 28.71% (58/202) samples. Among the gastrointestinal parasites, the genus Haemonchus and two Eimeria species (E. ninakohlyakimovae and E. alijevi) were predominants.<br>Amostras fecais de cabritos machos e fêmeas, de diferentes raças e com até uma ano de idade, foram examinadas para determinação do número de ovos e oocistos por grama de fezes (OPG e OoPG, respectivamente) e coprocultura para identificação genérica dos nematódeos. Ovos de helmintos e oocistos de Eimeria spp. foram observados em 93,06% (188/202) e 77,22% (156/202) das amostras, respectivamente. Pelas coproculturas, foram identificados os gêneros Cooperia em 11,88% (24/202), Haemonchus em 51,98% (105/202), Oesophagostomum em 9,4% (19/202), Strongyloides em 5,94 (12/202) e Trichostrongylus em 20,79% (42/202) das amostras. As espécies de Eimeria encontradas foram E. alijevi em 25,24% (51/202), E. arloingi em 7,42% (15/202), E. caprina em 2,97% (6/202), E. caprovina em 10,39% (21/202), E. christenseni em 4,45% (9/202), E. joklchijevi em 11,38% (23/202), E. hirci em 9,4% (19/202) e E. ninakohlyakimovae em 28,71% (58/202) das amostras. Dentre os parasitas gastrintestinais, houve predominância do gênero Haemonchus e de duas espécies de Eimeria: E. ninakohlyakimovae e E. alijevi