Assessing the Effects of WFD Nutrient Reductions Within an OSPAR Frame Using Trans-boundary Nutrient Modeling

The reduction of riverine nutrients inputs is considered the means of choice to improve the eutrophication status of the southern North Sea. With the European Union's Water Framework Directive (WFD) reduction measures presently under debate, two questions arise: (1) What changes in eutrophication indicators can be expected? (2) How do the reductions by the individual member states contribute to these? We combine an element tracing method (TBNT) with a biogeochemical model to analyze the effects of WFD-compliant nitrogen reductions proposed by OSPAR's North Sea member states. We first analyze changes in selected OSPAR assessment parameters relative to a reference simulation. Second, we quantify the source-specific contributions to total nitrogen (TN) in different regions. An overall nitrogen load reduction of 14 % is achieved. However, the response shows significant spatial variations due to strong differences between the countries' load reductions. TN and dissolved inorganic nitrogen reductions up to 60 % and 35 % are simulated near the Bay of Seine (France) and in the German Bight, respectively. Along the Dutch coast, reductions are below 10 %, and no changes occur along the British coast. Reductions in chlorophyll-a are generally lower. The TBNT analysis for the German Exclusive Economic Zone shows a TN reduction in the coastal region comparable to the N reductions in the German rivers (~25 %). In the offshore region, TN is reduced by only 6 % due to the strong influence of riverine sources with only low reductions and non-riverine sources. Our analysis reveals that non-linear responses in the biogeochemistry cause a faster removal of N from rivers with strong reductions by benthic denitrification, which enhances indirectly the removal of N from less reduced sources. Consequently, reductions in remote sources in non-problem areas can have a relevant positive effect on problem areas. This demonstrates that the TBNT method is an ideal tool to put in practice the “source-oriented approach” advocated by OSPAR, and to inform stakeholders about the effects of defined reduction strategies. However, an assessment framework is required to efficiently use it in management and for decision making, either by OSPAR, or in the context of WFD or Marine Strategy Framework Directive

Quantifying the contributions of riverine vs. oceanic nitrogen to hypoxia in the East China Sea

In the East China Sea, hypoxia (oxygen ≤ 62.5 mmol m−3) is frequently observed off the Changjiang (or Yangtze River) estuary covering up to about 15 000 km2. The Changjiang is a major contributor to hypoxia formation because it discharges large amounts of freshwater and nutrients into the region. However, modeling and observational studies have suggested that intrusions of nutrient-rich oceanic water from the Kuroshio Current also contribute to hypoxia formation. The relative contributions of riverine vs. oceanic nutrient sources to hypoxia have not been estimated before. Here, we combine a three-dimensional physical-biogeochemical model with an element-tracing method to quantify the relative contributions of nitrogen from different riverine and oceanic sources to hypoxia formation during 2008–2013. Our results suggest that the hypoxic region north of 30° N is dominated by Changjiang inputs, with its nitrogen loads supporting 74 % of oxygen consumption. South of 30° N, oceanic nitrogen sources become more important, supporting 39 % of oxygen consumption during the hypoxic season, but the Changjiang remains the main control on hypoxia formation also in this region. Model scenarios with reduced Changjiang nitrogen loads and reduced open-ocean oxygen levels suggest that nitrogen load reductions can significantly reduce hypoxia in the East China Sea and counteract a potential future decline in oxygen supply from the open ocean into the region

Looking beyond stratification: a model-based analysis of the biological drivers of oxygen deficiency in the North Sea

Low oxygen conditions, often referred to as oxy- gen deficiency, occur regularly in the North Sea, a temperate European shelf sea. Stratification represents a major process regulating the seasonal dynamics of bottom oxygen, yet, low- est oxygen conditions in the North Sea do not occur in the regions of strongest stratification. This suggests that stratifi- cation is an important prerequisite for oxygen deficiency, but that the complex interaction between hydrodynamics and the biological processes drives its evolution. In this study we use the ecosystem model HAMSOM- ECOHAM to provide a general characterisation of the dif- ferent zones of the North Sea with respect to oxygen, and to quantify the impact of the different physical and biological factors driving the oxygen dynamics inside the entire sub- thermocline volume and directly above the bottom. With respect to oxygen dynamics, the North Sea can be subdivided into three different zones: (1) a highly produc- tive, non-stratified coastal zone, (2) a productive, season- ally stratified zone with a small sub-thermocline volume, and (3) a productive, seasonally stratified zone with a large sub- thermocline volume. Type 2 reveals the highest susceptibility to oxygen deficiency due to sufficiently long stratification pe- riods (textgreater60 days) accompanied by high surface productivity resulting in high biological consumption, and a small sub- thermocline volume implying both a small initial oxygen in- ventory and a strong influence of the biological consumption on the oxygen concentration. Year-to-year variations in the oxygen conditions are caused by variations in primary production, while spatial dif- ferences can be attributed to differences in stratification and water depth. The large sub-thermocline volume dominates the oxygen dynamics in the northern central and northern North Sea and makes this region insusceptible to oxygen de- ficiency. In the southern North Sea the strong tidal mixing inhibits the development of seasonal stratification which pro- tects this area from the evolution of low oxygen conditions. In contrast, the southern central North Sea is highly suscep- tible to low oxygen conditions (type 2). We furthermore show that benthic diagenetic processes represent the main oxygen consumers in the bottom layer, consistently accounting for more than 50% of the overall consumption. Thus, primary production followed by rem- ineralisation of organic matter under stratified conditions constitutes the main driver for the evolution of oxygen defi- ciency in the southern central North Sea. By providing these valuable insights, we show that ecosystem models can be a useful tool for the interpretation of observations and the es- timation of the impact of anthropogenic drivers on the North Sea oxygen conditions

Assessing the effects of WFD nutrient reductions within an OSPAR frame using trans-boundary nutrient modeling

The reduction of riverine nutrients inputs is considered the means of choice to improve the eutrophication status of the southern North Sea. With the European Union's Water Framework Directive (WFD) reduction measures presently under debate, two questions arise: (1) What changes in eutrophication indicators can be expected? (2) How do the reductions by the individual member states contribute to these? We combine an element tracing method (TBNT) with a biogeochemical model to analyze the effects of WFD-compliant nitrogen reductions proposed by OSPAR's North Sea member states. We first analyze changes in selected OSPAR assessment parameters relative to a reference simulation. Second, we quantify the source-specific contributions to total nitrogen (TN) in different regions. An overall nitrogen load reduction of 14 % is achieved. However, the response shows significant spatial variations due to strong differences between the countries' load reductions. TN and dissolved inorganic nitrogen reductions up to 60 % and 35 % are simulated near the Bay of Seine (France) and in the German Bight, respectively. Along the Dutch coast, reductions are below 10 %, and no changes occur along the British coast. Reductions in chlorophyll-a are generally lower. The TBNT analysis for the German Exclusive Economic Zone shows a TN reduction in the coastal region comparable to the N reductions in the German rivers (~25 %). In the offshore region, TN is reduced by only 6 % due to the strong influence of riverine sources with only low reductions and non-riverine sources. Our analysis reveals that non-linear responses in the biogeochemistry cause a faster removal of N from rivers with strong reductions by benthic denitrification, which enhances indirectly the removal of N from less reduced sources. Consequently, reductions in remote sources in non-problem areas can have a relevant positive effect on problem areas. This demonstrates that the TBNT method is an ideal tool to put in practice the “source-oriented approach” advocated by OSPAR, and to inform stakeholders about the effects of defined reduction strategies. However, an assessment framework is required to efficiently use it in management and for decision making, either by OSPAR, or in the context of WFD or Marine Strategy Framework Directive

A changing Arctic Ocean

The Arctic is the fastest changing region on the planet. It is also intrinsically tied to global processes, whether they are climatic, environmental or socio-economic. The impacts of climate change on the vast and multiple interacting Arctic systems are inherently complex, although can be broadly summarised as an increase in temperature and the subsequent loss of sea-ice cover. This will ultimately result in the emergence of new physical and ecological statesNon peer reviewe

A novel modeling approach to quantify the influence of nitrogen inputs on the oxygen dynamics of the North Sea

Oxygen (O2) deficiency, i.e., dissolved O2 concentrations below 6 mg O2 L-1, is a common feature in the southern North Sea. Its evolution is governed mainly by the presence of seasonal stratification and production of organic matter, which is subsequently degraded under O2 consumption. The latter is strongly influenced by riverine nutrient loads, i.e., nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). As riverine P loads have been reduced significantly over the past decades, this study aims for the quantification of the influence of riverine and non-riverine N inputs on the O2 dynamics in the southern North Sea. For this purpose, we present an approach to expand a nutrient-tagging technique for physical-biogeochemical models - often referred to as 'trans-boundary nutrient transports' (TBNT) - by introducing a direct link to the O2 dynamics. We apply the expanded TBNT to the physical-biogeochemical model system HAMSOM-ECOHAM and focus our analysis on N-related O2 consumption in the southern North Sea during 2000-2014. The analysis reveals that near-bottom O2 consumption in the southern North Sea is strongly influenced by the N supply from the North Atlantic across the northern shelf edge. However, riverine N sources - especially the Dutch, German and British rivers - as well as the atmosphere also play an important role. In the region with lowest simulated O2 concentrations (around 56 °N, 6.5 °E), riverine N on average contributes 39% to overall near-bottom O2 consumption during seasonal stratification. Here, the German and the large Dutch rivers constitute the highest riverine contributions (11% and 10%, respectively). At a site in the Oyster Grounds (around 54.5 °N, 4 °E), the average riverine contribution adds up to 41%, even exceeding that of the North Atlantic. Here, highest riverine contributions can be attributed to the Dutch and British rivers adding up to almost 28% on average. The atmospheric contribution results in 13%. Our results emphasize the importance of anthropogenic N inputs and seasonal stratification for the O2 conditions in the southern North Sea. They further suggest that reductions in the riverine and atmospheric N inputs may have a relevant positive effect on the O2 levels in this region

A model-based projection of historical state of a coastal ecosystem : relevance of phytoplankton stoichiometry

We employed a coupled physical-biogeochemical modelling framework for the reconstruction of the historic (H), pre-industrial state of a coastal system, the German Bight (southeastern North Sea), and we investigated its differences with the recent, control (C) state of the system. According to our findings: i) average winter concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus (DIN and DIP) concentrations at the surface are ∼70–90% and ∼50–70% lower in the H state than in the C state within the nearshore waters, and differences gradually diminish towards off-shore waters; ii) differences in average growing season chlorophyll a (Chl) concentrations at the surface between the two states are mostly less than 50%; iii) in the off-shore areas, Chl concentrations in the deeper layers are affected less than in the surface layers; iv) reductions in phytoplankton carbon (C) biomass under the H state are weaker than those in Chl, due to the generally lower Chl:C ratios; v) in some areas the differences in growth rates between the two states are negligible, due to the compensation by lower light limitation under the H state, which in turn explains the lower Chl:C ratios; vi) zooplankton biomass, and hence the grazing pressure on phytoplankton is lower under the H state. This trophic decoupling is caused by the low nutritional quality (i.e., low N:C and P:C) of phytoplankton. These results call for increased attention to the relevance of the acclimation capacity and stoichiometric flexibility of phytoplankton for the prediction of their response to environmental change

Centrality evolution of the charged-particle pseudorapidity density over a broad pseudorapidity range in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76TeV

Peer reviewe