A maritime decision support system to assess risk in the presence of environmental uncertainties: the REP10 experiment

The aim of this work is to report on an activity carried out during the 2010 Recognized Environmental Picture experiment, held in the Ligurian Sea during summer 2010. The activity was the first at-sea test of the recently developed decision support system (DSS) for operation planning, which had previously been tested in an artificial experiment. The DSS assesses the impact of both environmental conditions (meteorological and oceanographic) and non-environmental conditions (such as traffic density maps) on people and assets involved in the operation and helps in deciding a course of action that allows safer operation. More precisely, the environmental variables (such as wind speed, current speed and significant wave height) taken as input by the DSS are the ones forecasted by a super-ensemble model, which fuses the forecasts provided by multiple forecasting centres. The uncertainties associated with the DSS's inputs (generally due to disagreement between forecasts) are propagated through the DSS's output by using the unscented transform. In this way, the system is not only able to provide a traffic light map (run/not run the operation), but also to specify the confidence level associated with each action. This feature was tested on a particular type of operation with underwater gliders: the glider surfacing for data transmission. It is also shown how the availability of a glider path prediction tool provides surfacing options along the predicted path. The applicability to different operations is demonstrated by applying the same system to support diver operations

Topological Analysis of MAPK Cascade for Kinetic ErbB Signaling

Ligand-induced homo- and hetero-dimer formation of ErbB receptors results in different biological outcomes irrespective of recruitment and activation of similar effector proteins. Earlier experimental research indicated that cells expressing both EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) and the ErbB4 receptor (E1/4 cells) induced E1/4 cell-specific B-Raf activation and higher extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) activation, followed by cellular transformation, than cells solely expressing EGFR (E1 cells) in Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells. Since our experimental data revealed the presence of positive feedback by ERK on upstream pathways, it was estimated that the cross-talk/feedback pathway structure of the Raf-MEK-ERK cascade might affect ERK activation dynamics in our cell system. To uncover the regulatory mechanism concerning the ERK dynamics, we used topological models and performed parameter estimation for all candidate structures that possessed ERK-mediated positive feedback regulation of Raf. The structure that reliably reproduced a series of experimental data regarding signal amplitude and duration of the signaling molecules was selected as a solution. We found that the pathway structure is characterized by ERK-mediated positive feedback regulation of B-Raf and B-Raf-mediated negative regulation of Raf-1. Steady-state analysis of the estimated structure indicated that the amplitude of Ras activity might critically affect ERK activity through ERK-B-Raf positive feedback coordination with sustained B-Raf activation in E1/4 cells. However, Rap1 that positively regulates B-Raf activity might be less effective concerning ERK and B-Raf activity. Furthermore, we investigated how such Ras activity in E1/4 cells can be regulated by EGFR/ErbB4 heterodimer-mediated signaling. From a sensitivity analysis of the detailed upstream model for Ras activation, we concluded that Ras activation dynamics is dominated by heterodimer-mediated signaling coordination with a large initial speed of dimerization when the concentration of the ErbB4 receptor is considerably high. Such characteristics of the signaling cause the preferential binding of the Grb2-SOS complex to heterodimer-mediated signaling molecules

Interaction among apoptosis-associated sequence variants and joint effects on aggressive prostate cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Molecular and epidemiological evidence demonstrate that altered gene expression and single nucleotide polymorphisms in the apoptotic pathway are linked to many cancers. Yet, few studies emphasize the interaction of variant apoptotic genes and their joint modifying effects on prostate cancer (PCA) outcomes. An exhaustive assessment of all the possible two-, three- and four-way gene-gene interactions is computationally burdensome. This statistical conundrum stems from the prohibitive amount of data needed to account for multiple hypothesis testing.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To address this issue, we systematically prioritized and evaluated individual effects and complex interactions among 172 apoptotic SNPs in relation to PCA risk and aggressive disease (i.e., Gleason score ≥ 7 and tumor stages III/IV). Single and joint modifying effects on PCA outcomes among European-American men were analyzed using statistical epistasis networks coupled with multi-factor dimensionality reduction (SEN-guided MDR). The case-control study design included 1,175 incident PCA cases and 1,111 controls from the prostate, lung, colo-rectal, and ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial. Moreover, a subset analysis of PCA cases consisted of 688 aggressive and 488 non-aggressive PCA cases. SNP profiles were obtained using the NCI Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) data portal. Main effects were assessed using logistic regression (LR) models. Prior to modeling interactions, SEN was used to pre-process our genetic data. SEN used network science to reduce our analysis from > 36 million to < 13,000 SNP interactions. Interactions were visualized, evaluated, and validated using entropy-based MDR. All parametric and non-parametric models were adjusted for age, family history of PCA, and multiple hypothesis testing.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Following LR modeling, eleven and thirteen sequence variants were associated with PCA risk and aggressive disease, respectively. However, none of these markers remained significant after we adjusted for multiple comparisons. Nevertheless, we detected a modest synergistic interaction between <it>AKT3 rs2125230-PRKCQ rs571715 </it>and disease aggressiveness using SEN-guided MDR (p = 0.011).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In summary, entropy-based SEN-guided MDR facilitated the logical prioritization and evaluation of apoptotic SNPs in relation to aggressive PCA. The suggestive interaction between <it>AKT3-PRKCQ </it>and aggressive PCA requires further validation using independent observational studies.</p

Assessment of interactions between 205 breast cancer susceptibility loci and 13 established risk factors in relation to breast cancer risk, in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Previous gene-environment interaction studies of breast cancer risk have provided sparse evidence of interactions. Using the largest available dataset to date, we performed a comprehensive assessment of potential effect modification of 205 common susceptibility variants by 13 established breast cancer risk factors, including replication of previously reported interactions. METHODS: Analyses were performed using 28 176 cases and 32 209 controls genotyped with iCOGS array and 44 109 cases and 48 145 controls genotyped using OncoArray from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Gene-environment interactions were assessed using unconditional logistic regression and likelihood ratio tests for breast cancer risk overall and by estrogen-receptor (ER) status. Bayesian false discovery probability was used to assess the noteworthiness of the meta-analysed array-specific interactions. RESULTS: Noteworthy evidence of interaction at ≤1% prior probability was observed for three single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-risk factor pairs. SNP rs4442975 was associated with a greater reduction of risk of ER-positive breast cancer [odds ratio (OR)int = 0.85 (0.78-0.93), Pint = 2.8 x 10-4] and overall breast cancer [ORint = 0.85 (0.78-0.92), Pint = 7.4 x 10-5) in current users of estrogen-progesterone therapy compared with non-users. This finding was supported by replication using OncoArray data of the previously reported interaction between rs13387042 (r2 = 0.93 with rs4442975) and current estrogen-progesterone therapy for overall disease (Pint = 0.004). The two other interactions suggested stronger associations between SNP rs6596100 and ER-negative breast cancer with increasing parity and younger age at first birth. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our study does not suggest strong effect modification of common breast cancer susceptibility variants by established risk factors

Association of germline genetic variants with breast cancer-specific survival in patient subgroups defined by clinic-pathological variables related to tumor biology and type of systemic treatment

BACKGROUND: Given the high heterogeneity among breast tumors, associations between common germline genetic variants and survival that may exist within specific subgroups could go undetected in an unstratified set of breast cancer patients. METHODS: We performed genome-wide association analyses within 15 subgroups of breast cancer patients based on prognostic factors, including hormone receptors, tumor grade, age, and type of systemic treatment. Analyses were based on 91,686 female patients of European ancestry from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, including 7531 breast cancer-specific deaths over a median follow-up of 8.1 years. Cox regression was used to assess associations of common germline variants with 15-year and 5-year breast cancer-specific survival. We assessed the probability of these associations being true positives via the Bayesian false discovery probability (BFDP < 0.15). RESULTS: Evidence of associations with breast cancer-specific survival was observed in three patient subgroups, with variant rs5934618 in patients with grade 3 tumors (15-year-hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] 1.32 [1.20, 1.45], P = 1.4E-08, BFDP = 0.01, per G allele); variant rs4679741 in patients with ER-positive tumors treated with endocrine therapy (15-year-HR [95% CI] 1.18 [1.11, 1.26], P = 1.6E-07, BFDP = 0.09, per G allele); variants rs1106333 (15-year-HR [95% CI] 1.68 [1.39,2.03], P = 5.6E-08, BFDP = 0.12, per A allele) and rs78754389 (5-year-HR [95% CI] 1.79 [1.46,2.20], P = 1.7E-08, BFDP = 0.07, per A allele), in patients with ER-negative tumors treated with chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence of four loci associated with breast cancer-specific survival within three patient subgroups. There was limited evidence for the existence of associations in other patient subgroups. However, the power for many subgroups is limited due to the low number of events. Even so, our results suggest that the impact of common germline genetic variants on breast cancer-specific survival might be limited

A new damping modelling approach and its application in thin wall machining

In this paper, a new approach to modelling the damping parameters and its application in thin wall machining is presented. The approach to predicting the damping parameters proposed in this paper eliminates the need for experiments otherwise used to acquire these parameters. The damping model proposed was compared with available damping models and experimental results. A finite element analysis and Fourier transform approach has been used to obtain frequency response function (FRF) needed for stability lobes prediction. Several predicted stable regions using both experimental and numerical FRF’s for various examples gave a good comparison.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Counci

Genome-wide association and transcriptome studies identify target genes and risk loci for breast cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 170 breast cancer susceptibility loci. Here we hypothesize that some risk-associated variants might act in non-breast tissues, specifically adipose tissue and immune cells from blood and spleen. Using expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) reported in these tissues, we identify 26 previously unreported, likely target genes of overall breast cancer risk variants, and 17 for estrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer, several with a known immune function. We determine the directional effect of gene expression on disease risk measured based on single and multiple eQTL. In addition, using a gene-based test of association that considers eQTL from multiple tissues, we identify seven (and four) regions with variants associated with overall (and ER-negative) breast cancer risk, which were not reported in previous GWAS. Further investigation of the function of the implicated genes in breast and immune cells may provide insights into the etiology of breast cancer.Peer reviewe

Ex-post Performance Implications of Divergence of Managers’ Perceptions of ‘Distance’ From ‘Reality’ in International Business

Despite much research on “distance”, little attention has been paid to the effect of divergence of managers’ perceptions of distance from reality (i.e. distance divergence) and its implications for firm performance. This knowledge is highly important since managerial perceptions of the firm’s environment do not always coincide with the actual environmental characteristics. Consequently, strategies based on inaccurate data may result in erroneous forecasts, missed opportunities and business failure. Using survey data from senior managers of Swedish exporters and corresponding objective data, this study is a first attempt to explore the ex-post performance implications of “distance divergence” when expanding into foreign markets. Our results demonstrate that the larger the divergence between managers’ perceptions of cultural distance and corresponding “objective” distance, the lower the performance expressed in companies’ sales. However, over/underestimation of cultural distance does not have differential effects on firm performance.“Stiftelsen Olle Hakelius Stipendiefond”, Grant no: 1165001

Genome-wide association and transcriptome studies identify target genes and risk loci for breast cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 170 breast cancer susceptibility loci. Here we hypothesize that some risk-associated variants might act in non-breast tissues, specifically adipose tissue and immune cells from blood and spleen. Using expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) reported in these tissues, we identify 26 previously unreported, likely target genes of overall breast cancer risk variants, and 17 for estrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer, several with a known immune function. We determine the directional effect of gene expression on disease risk measured based on single and multiple eQTL. In addition, using a gene-based test of association that considers eQTL from multiple tissues, we identify seven (and four) regions with variants associated with overall (and ER-negative) breast cancer risk, which were not reported in previous GWAS. Further investigation of the function of the implicated genes in breast and immune cells may provide insights into the etiology of breast cancer

Polygenic Risk Scores for Prediction of Breast Cancer and Breast Cancer Subtypes.

Stratification of women according to their risk of breast cancer based on polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could improve screening and prevention strategies. Our aim was to develop PRSs, optimized for prediction of estrogen receptor (ER)-specific disease, from the largest available genome-wide association dataset and to empirically validate the PRSs in prospective studies. The development dataset comprised 94,075 case subjects and 75,017 control subjects of European ancestry from 69 studies, divided into training and validation sets. Samples were genotyped using genome-wide arrays, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected by stepwise regression or lasso penalized regression. The best performing PRSs were validated in an independent test set comprising 11,428 case subjects and 18,323 control subjects from 10 prospective studies and 190,040 women from UK Biobank (3,215 incident breast cancers). For the best PRSs (313 SNPs), the odds ratio for overall disease per 1 standard deviation in ten prospective studies was 1.61 (95%CI: 1.57-1.65) with area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) = 0.630 (95%CI: 0.628-0.651). The lifetime risk of overall breast cancer in the top centile of the PRSs was 32.6%. Compared with women in the middle quintile, those in the highest 1% of risk had 4.37- and 2.78-fold risks, and those in the lowest 1% of risk had 0.16- and 0.27-fold risks, of developing ER-positive and ER-negative disease, respectively. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that this PRS was well calibrated and predicts disease risk accurately in the tails of the distribution. This PRS is a powerful and reliable predictor of breast cancer risk that may improve breast cancer prevention programs