Model updating after interventions paradoxically introduces bias

Machine learning is increasingly being used to generate prediction models for use in a number of real-world settings, from credit risk assessment to clinical decision support. Recent discussions have highlighted potential problems in the updating of a predictive score for a binary outcome when an existing predictive score forms part of the standard workflow, driving interventions. In this setting, the existing score induces an additional causative pathway which leads to miscalibration when the original score is replaced. We propose a general causal framework to describe and address this problem, and demonstrate an equivalent formulation as a partially observed Markov decision process. We use this model to demonstrate the impact of such `naive updating' when performed repeatedly. Namely, we show that successive predictive scores may converge to a point where they predict their own effect, or may eventually tend toward a stable oscillation between two values, and we argue that neither outcome is desirable. Furthermore, we demonstrate that even if model-fitting procedures improve, actual performance may worsen. We complement these findings with a discussion of several potential routes to overcome these issues.Comment: Sections of this preprint on 'Successive adjuvancy' (section 4, theorem 2, figures 4,5, and associated discussions) were not included in the originally submitted version of this paper due to length. This material does not appear in the published version of this manuscript, and the reader should be aware that these sections did not undergo peer revie

Sticking under wet conditions: the remarkable attachment abilities of the torrent frog, staurois guttatus

Tree frogs climb smooth surfaces utilising capillary forces arising from an air-fluid interface around their toe pads, whereas torrent frogs are able to climb in wet environments near waterfalls where the integrity of the meniscus is at risk. This study compares the adhesive capabilities of a torrent frog to a tree frog, investigating possible adaptations for adhesion under wet conditions. We challenged both frog species to cling to a platform which could be tilted from the horizontal to an upside-down orientation, testing the frogs on different levels of roughness and water flow. On dry, smooth surfaces, both frog species stayed attached to overhanging slopes equally well. In contrast, under both low and high flow rate conditions, the torrent frogs performed significantly better, even adhering under conditions where their toe pads were submerged in water, abolishing the meniscus that underlies capillarity. Using a transparent platform where areas of contact are illuminated, we measured the contact area of frogs during platform rotation under dry conditions. Both frog species not only used the contact area of their pads to adhere, but also large parts of their belly and thigh skin. In the tree frogs, the belly and thighs often detached on steeper slopes, whereas the torrent frogs increased the use of these areas as the slope angle increased. Probing small areas of the different skin parts with a force transducer revealed that forces declined significantly in wet conditions, with only minor differences between the frog species. The superior abilities of the torrent frogs were thus due to the large contact area they used on steep, overhanging surfaces. SEM images revealed slightly elongated cells in the periphery of the toe pads in the torrent frogs, with straightened channels in between them which could facilitate drainage of excess fluid underneath the pad

LSST: from Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products

(Abridged) We describe here the most ambitious survey currently planned in the optical, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). A vast array of science will be enabled by a single wide-deep-fast sky survey, and LSST will have unique survey capability in the faint time domain. The LSST design is driven by four main science themes: probing dark energy and dark matter, taking an inventory of the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. LSST will be a wide-field ground-based system sited at Cerro Pach\'{o}n in northern Chile. The telescope will have an 8.4 m (6.5 m effective) primary mirror, a 9.6 deg$^2$ field of view, and a 3.2 Gigapixel camera. The standard observing sequence will consist of pairs of 15-second exposures in a given field, with two such visits in each pointing in a given night. With these repeats, the LSST system is capable of imaging about 10,000 square degrees of sky in a single filter in three nights. The typical 5$\sigma$ point-source depth in a single visit in $r$ will be $\sim 24.5$ (AB). The project is in the construction phase and will begin regular survey operations by 2022. The survey area will be contained within 30,000 deg$^2$ with $\delta<+34.5^\circ$, and will be imaged multiple times in six bands, $ugrizy$, covering the wavelength range 320--1050 nm. About 90\% of the observing time will be devoted to a deep-wide-fast survey mode which will uniformly observe a 18,000 deg$^2$ region about 800 times (summed over all six bands) during the anticipated 10 years of operations, and yield a coadded map to $r\sim27.5$. The remaining 10\% of the observing time will be allocated to projects such as a Very Deep and Fast time domain survey. The goal is to make LSST data products, including a relational database of about 32 trillion observations of 40 billion objects, available to the public and scientists around the world.Comment: 57 pages, 32 color figures, version with high-resolution figures available from https://www.lsst.org/overvie

Plant DNA barcodes and assessment of phylogenetic community structure of a tropical mixed dipterocarp forest in Brunei Darussalam (Borneo)

DNA barcoding is a fast and reliable tool to assess and monitor biodiversity and, via community phylogenetics, to investigate ecological and evolutionary processes that may be responsible for the community structure of forests. In this study, DNA barcodes for the two widely used plastid coding regions rbcL and matK are used to contribute to identification of morphologically undetermined individuals, as well as to investigate phylogenetic structure of tree communities in 70 subplots (10 × 10m) of a 25-ha forest-dynamics plot in Brunei (Borneo, Southeast Asia). The combined matrix (rbcL + matK) comprised 555 haplotypes (from ≥154 genera, 68 families and 25 orders sensu APG, Angiosperm Phylogeny Group, 2016), making a substantial contribution to tree barcode sequences from Southeast Asia. Barcode sequences were used to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships using maximum likelihood, both with and without constraining the topology of taxonomic orders to match that proposed by the Angiosperm Phylogeny Group. A third phylogenetic tree was reconstructed using the program Phylomatic to investigate the influence of phylogenetic resolution on results. Detection of non-random patterns of community assembly was determined by net relatedness index (NRI) and nearest taxon index (NTI). In most cases, community assembly was either random or phylogenetically clustered, which likely indicates the importance to community structure of habitat filtering based on phylogenetically correlated traits in determining community structure. Different phylogenetic trees gave similar overall results, but the Phylomatic tree produced greater variation across plots for NRI and NTI values, presumably due to noise introduced by using an unresolved phylogenetic tree. Our results suggest that using a DNA barcode tree has benefits over the traditionally used Phylomatic approach by increasing precision and accuracy and allowing the incorporation of taxonomically unidentified individuals into analyses

Latitude dictates plant diversity effects on instream decomposition

Running waters contribute substantially to global carbon fluxes through decomposition of terrestrial plant litter by aquatic microorganisms and detritivores. Diversity of this litter may influence instream decomposition globally in ways that are not yet understood. We investigated latitudinal differences in decomposition of litter mixtures of low and high functional diversity in 40 streams on 6 continents and spanning 113 degrees of latitude. Despite important variability in our dataset, we found latitudinal differences in the effect of litter functional diversity on decomposition, which we explained as evolutionary adaptations of litter-consuming detritivores to resource availability. Specifically, a balanced diet effect appears to operate at lower latitudes versus a resource concentration effect at higher latitudes. The latitudinal pattern indicates that loss of plant functional diversity will have different consequences on carbon fluxes across the globe, with greater repercussions likely at low latitudes

BMQ

BMQ: Boston Medical Quarterly was published from 1950-1966 by the Boston University School of Medicine and the Massachusetts Memorial Hospitals

The relationship between wealth and loneliness among older people across Europe: Is social participation protective?

Objective: 1. Examine the relationship between household wealth, social participation and loneliness among older people across Europe. 2. Investigate whether relationships vary by type of social participation (charity/volunteer work, sports/social clubs, educational/training course, and political/community organisations) and gender. 3. Examine whether social participation moderates the association between wealth and loneliness. Methods: Data (N = 29,795) were taken from the fifth wave of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), which was collected during 2013 from 14 European countries. Loneliness was measured using the short version of the Revised-University of California, Los Angeles (R-UCLA) Loneliness Scale. We used multilevel logistic models stratified by gender to examine the relationships between variables, with individuals nested within countries. Results: The risk of loneliness was highest in the least wealthy groups and lowest in the wealthiest groups. Frequent social participation was associated with a lower risk of loneliness and moderated the association between household wealth and loneliness, particularly among men. Compared to the wealthiest men who often took part in formal social activities, the least wealthy men who did not participate had greater risk of loneliness (OR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.44 to 2.51). This increased risk was not observed among the least wealthy men who reported frequent participation in formal social activities (OR = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.76 to 1.67). Conclusion: Participation in external social activities may help to reduce loneliness among older adults and potentially acts as a buffer against the adverse effects of socioeconomic disadvantage

Registered Ship Notes

https://digitalmaine.com/blue_hill_documents/1179/thumbnail.jp

Tropical Data: Approach and Methodology as Applied to Trachoma Prevalence Surveys

PURPOSE: Population-based prevalence surveys are essential for decision-making on interventions to achieve trachoma elimination as a public health problem. This paper outlines the methodologies of Tropical Data, which supports work to undertake those surveys. METHODS: Tropical Data is a consortium of partners that supports health ministries worldwide to conduct globally standardised prevalence surveys that conform to World Health Organization recommendations. Founding principles are health ministry ownership, partnership and collaboration, and quality assurance and quality control at every step of the survey process. Support covers survey planning, survey design, training, electronic data collection and fieldwork, and data management, analysis and dissemination. Methods are adapted to meet local context and needs. Customisations, operational research and integration of other diseases into routine trachoma surveys have also been supported. RESULTS: Between 29th February 2016 and 24th April 2023, 3373 trachoma surveys across 50 countries have been supported, resulting in 10,818,502 people being examined for trachoma. CONCLUSION: This health ministry-led, standardised approach, with support from the start to the end of the survey process, has helped all trachoma elimination stakeholders to know where interventions are needed, where interventions can be stopped, and when elimination as a public health problem has been achieved. Flexibility to meet specific country contexts, adaptation to changes in global guidance and adjustments in response to user feedback have facilitated innovation in evidence-based methodologies, and supported health ministries to strive for global disease control targets