The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Inflammatory bowel disease induces inflammatory and pre-neoplastic changes in the prostate.

BackgroundInflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has been implicated as a risk factor for prostate cancer, however, the mechanism of how IBD leads to prostate tumorigenesis is not known. Here, we investigated whether chronic intestinal inflammation leads to pro-inflammatory changes associated with tumorigenesis in the prostate.MethodsUsing clinical samples of men with IBD who underwent prostatectomy, we analyzed whether prostate tumors had differences in lymphocyte infiltrate compared to non-IBD controls. In a mouse model of chemically-induced intestinal inflammation, we investigated whether chronic intestinal inflammation could be transferred to the wild-type mouse prostate. In addition, mouse prostates were evaluated for activation of pro-oncogenic signaling and genomic instability.ResultsA higher proportion of men with IBD had T and B lymphocyte infiltration within prostate tumors. Mice with chronic colitis showed significant increases in prostatic CD45 + leukocyte infiltration and elevation of three pro-inflammatory cytokines-TIMP-1, CCL5, and CXCL1 and activation of AKT and NF-kB signaling pathways. Lastly, mice with chronic colitis had greater prostatic oxidative stress/DNA damage, and prostate epithelial cells had undergone cell cycle arrest.ConclusionsThese data suggest chronic intestinal inflammation is associated with an inflammatory-rich, pro-tumorigenic prostatic phenotype which may explain how gut inflammation fosters prostate cancer development in men with IBD