Population-level impact and herd effects following the introduction of human papillomavirus vaccination programmes: updated systematic review and meta-analysis

Background More than 10 years have elapsed since human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination was implemented. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of the population-level impact of vaccinating girls and women against human papillomavirus on HPV infections, anogenital wart diagnoses, and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+)to summarise the most recent evidence about the effectiveness of HPV vaccines in real-world settings and to quantify the impact of multiple age-cohort vaccination.Methods In this updated systematic review and meta-analysis, we used the same search strategy as in our previous paper. We searched MEDLINE and Embase for studies published between Feb 1, 2014, and Oct 11, 2018. Studies were eligible if they compared the frequency (prevalence or incidence) of at least one HPV-related endpoint (genital HPV infections, anogenital wart diagnoses, or histologically confirmed CIN2+) between pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods among the general population and if they used the same population sources and recruitment methods before and after vaccination. Our primary assessment was the relative risk (RR) comparing the frequency (prevalence or incidence) of HPV-related endpoints between the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods. We stratified all analyses by sex, age, and years since introduction of HPV vaccination. We used random-effects models to estimate pooled relative risks.Findings We identified 1702 potentially eligible articles for this systematic review and meta-analysis, and included 65 articles in 14 high-income countries: 23 for HPV infection, 29 for anogenital warts, and 13 for CIN2+.After 5\u20138 years of vaccination, the prevalence of HPV 16 and 18 decreased significantly by 83% (RR 0\ub717, 95% CI 0\ub711\u20130\ub725) among girls aged 13\u201319 years, and decreased significantly by 66% (RR 0\ub734, 95% CI 0\ub723\u20130\ub749) among women aged 20\u201324 years. The prevalence of HPV 31, 33, and 45 decreased significantly by 54% (RR 0\ub746, 95% CI 0\ub733\u20130\ub766) among girls aged 13\u201319 years. Anogenital wart diagnoses decreased significantly by 67% (RR 0\ub733, 95% CI 0\ub724\u20130\ub746) among girls aged 15\u201319 years, decreased significantly by 54% (RR 0\ub746, 95% CI 0.36\u20130.60) among women aged 20\u201324 years, and decreased significantly by 31% (RR 0\ub769, 95% CI 0\ub753\u20130\ub789) among women aged 25\u201329 years. Among boys aged 15\u201319 years anogenital wart diagnoses decreased significantly by 48% (RR 0\ub752, 95% CI 0\ub737\u20130\ub775) and among men aged 20\u201324 years they decreased significantly by 32% (RR 0\ub768, 95% CI 0\ub747\u20130\ub798). After 5\u20139 years of vaccination, CIN2+ decreased significantly by 51% (RR 0\ub749, 95% CI 0\ub742\u20130\ub758) among screened girls aged 15\u201319 years and decreased significantly by 31% (RR 0\ub769, 95% CI 0\ub757\u20130\ub784) among women aged 20\u201324 years.Interpretation This updated systematic review and meta-analysis includes data from 60 million individuals and up to 8 years of post-vaccination follow-up. Our results show compelling evidence of the substantial impact of HPV vaccination programmes on HPV infections and CIN2+ among girls and women, and on anogenital warts diagnoses among girls, women, boys, and men. Additionally, programmes with multi-cohort vaccination and high vaccination coverage had a greater direct impact and herd effects

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

Rules for predicting safe early hospital discharge for patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A phase I (derivation phase) study

Backgrounds: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common cause of hospitalization and resource utilization. The condition is often self-limiting in most patients. We aim to derive at decision rules to identify patients who may be discharged same day from the emergency rooms (ER) after endoscopic triage. Methods: Consecutive admissions of adult patients via ER with acute UGIB from April 2004 to April 2005 were prospectively entered into a database. We defined the high risk group as those requiring endoscopic therapy, those continued to bleed or developed re-bleeding, or the need for re-hospitalization, surgery and death within 30 days of admissions. Clinical and endoscopic parameters were analyzed using logistic regression model. Results: There were 432 admissions of adult patients for acute UGIB, and 99 (22.9%) were classified as the high risk group. Fresh hematemesis at presentation, systolic BP ≤ 100 mm Hg, low hematocrit ≤ 0.3, INR > 1.2, previous history of ulcer, ASA grade > 3 and presence of liver cirrhosis were independent factors that predicted events defined as above. These constituted a risk score. Those with a risk score ≤ 1 were categorized as low risk. The area under the ROC curve of our score was 0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.77), which was significantly higher than that of Blatchford score (0.67 [0.61-0.74]), and the Rockall admission (0.60 [0.54-0.66]) and post-endoscopy scores (0.67 [0.61-0.73]) applied to the same cohort. Low risk patients may receive upper endoscopy at the level of ER, such that patients with high risk lesions warranting endoscopic therapy would be triaged to hospitalization, while others would be discharged. Screening with the risk score in combined with endoscopic triage at the ER allow 265/432 (61.3%) patients to be discharged on the same day. Conclusion: Our risk score is a simple method to identify low risk patients and to reduce admission when combined with endoscopic triage. It will be validated in another prospective cohort

Comparison of clinical characteristics and management of inflammatory bowel disease in Hong Kong versus Melbourne

Background and Aim: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), common in Melbourne, was rare but is now increasing in incidence in Hong Kong (HK). To investigate whether these are the same diseases in the West and East, potential causes of changing incidence, and to plan resource needs, an appreciation of clinical characteristics in contrasting populations is essential. Methods: Disease characteristics were collected from prospectively populated IBD databases in two specialist centers in Melbourne, Australia and HK. Results: Of 795 patients (Crohn's disease [CD]:ulcerative colitis [UC] Melbourne 272:159 and HK 161:203), the age of diagnosis was higher, there were proportionally more male patients with CD but no UC sex difference, fewer patients were current or ex-smokers (CD 8% vs 50%; UC 17% vs 35%) and a family history of IBD was less common (2% vs 11%; P<0.001) in HK compared to Melbourne. Stricturing and perianal CD were more common in HK (12% vs 6%; P<0.001; and 29% vs 16%; P=0.001, respectively). In HK for UC, more patients had extensive disease at diagnosis (42% vs 22%) but colectomy was less common (7% vs 20%; P<0.001). In Melbourne there was greater steroid use at diagnosis and patients were more likely to receive an immunomodulator or anti-tumor necrosis factor agent. Conclusions: IBD in HK was diagnosed at an older age, and had more complicated disease behavior than in Melbourne. Medical therapy, however, was less intense in HK. These differences may relate to real differences in disease or delayed diagnosis due to late presentation and less disease recognition in HK

Multilaboratory Collaborative Study of a Nontarget Data Acquisition for Target Analysis (nDATA) Workflow Using Liquid Chromatography-High-Resolution Accurate Mass Spectrometry for Pesticide Screening in Fruits and Vegetables

Nontarget data acquisition for target analysis (nDATA) workflows using liquid chromatography-high-resolution accurate mass (LC-HRAM) spectrometry, spectral screening software, and a compound database have generated interest because of their potential for screening of pesticides in foods. However, these procedures and particularly the instrument processing software need to be thoroughly evaluated before implementation in routine analysis. In this work, 25 laboratories participated in a collaborative study to evaluate an nDATA workflow on high moisture produce (apple, banana, broccoli, carrot, grape, lettuce, orange, potato, strawberry, and tomato). Samples were extracted in each laboratory by quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe (QuEChERS), and data were acquired by ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) coupled to a high-resolution quadrupole Orbitrap (QOrbitrap) or quadrupole time-of-flight (QTOF) mass spectrometer operating in full-scan mass spectrometry (MS) data-independent tandem mass spectrometry (LC-FS MS/DIA MS/MS) acquisition mode. The nDATA workflow was evaluated using a restricted compound database with 51 pesticides and vendor processing software. Pesticide identifications were determined by retention time (tR, ±0.5 min relative to the reference retention times used in the compound database) and mass errors (?M) of the precursor (RTP, ?M ≤ ±5 ppm) and product ions (RTPI, ?M ≤ ±10 ppm). The elution profiles of all 51 pesticides were within ±0.5 min among 24 of the participating laboratories. Successful screening was determined by false positive and false negative rates of <5% in unfortified (pesticide-free) and fortified (10 and 100 μg/kg) produce matrices. Pesticide responses were dependent on the pesticide, matrix, and instrument. The false negative rates were 0.7 and 0.1% at 10 and 100 μg/kg, respectively, and the false positive rate was 1.1% from results of the participating LC-HRAM platforms. Further evaluation was achieved by providing produce samples spiked with pesticides at concentrations blinded to the laboratories. Twenty-two of the 25 laboratories were successful in identifying all fortified pesticides (0-7 pesticides ranging from 5 to 50 μg/kg) for each produce sample (99.7% detection rate). These studies provide convincing evidence that the nDATA comprehensive approach broadens the screening capabilities of pesticide analyses and provide a platform with the potential to be easily extended to a larger number of other chemical residues and contaminants in foods

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in children : an international, multicentre, prospective cohort study

Introduction Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). However, there is a lack of data available about SSI in children worldwide, especially from low-income and middle-income countries. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of SSI in children and associations between SSI and morbidity across human development settings. Methods A multicentre, international, prospective, validated cohort study of children aged under 16 years undergoing clean-contaminated, contaminated or dirty gastrointestinal surgery. Any hospital in the world providing paediatric surgery was eligible to contribute data between January and July 2016. The primary outcome was the incidence of SSI by 30 days. Relationships between explanatory variables and SSI were examined using multilevel logistic regression. Countries were stratified into high development, middle development and low development groups using the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Results Of 1159 children across 181 hospitals in 51 countries, 523 (45 center dot 1%) children were from high HDI, 397 (34 center dot 2%) from middle HDI and 239 (20 center dot 6%) from low HDI countries. The 30-day SSI rate was 6.3% (33/523) in high HDI, 12 center dot 8% (51/397) in middle HDI and 24 center dot 7% (59/239) in low HDI countries. SSI was associated with higher incidence of 30-day mortality, intervention, organ-space infection and other HAIs, with the highest rates seen in low HDI countries. Median length of stay in patients who had an SSI was longer (7.0 days), compared with 3.0 days in patients who did not have an SSI. Use of laparoscopy was associated with significantly lower SSI rates, even after accounting for HDI. Conclusion The odds of SSI in children is nearly four times greater in low HDI compared with high HDI countries. Policies to reduce SSI should be prioritised as part of the wider global agenda.Peer reviewe

Opportunism as the Inhibiting Trigger for Developing Long-Term-Oriented Western Exporter-Hong Kong Importer Relationships

Notwithstanding the extensive literature on opportunism in buyer–seller relationships, scant empirical attention has been given to this issue in both international and Chinese contexts. Using a sample of 202 Hong Kong Chinese importers, this article highlights the harmful effect of Western exporters' opportunism on importers' long-term orientation through the intervening role of key behavioral constructs. The study confirms almost all hypothesized associations between the constructs examined, indicating that an exporter's opportunistic behavior reduces trust and generates conflict. In turn, low trust reduces commitment, and conflict impedes communication. Low levels of both commitment and communication reduce importers' satisfaction, which inhibits their long-term orientation. The importer's proactive initiation of the relationship moderates the link between opportunism and trust but not that of opportunism with conflict. The study also confirms the moderating role of importer dependence and exporters' marketing adaptation on the association of satisfaction with long-term orientation. The authors find moderating effects on this association through the Chinese constructs of renqing and mianzi, albeit in the opposite direction to that hypothesized