The association between serum biomarkers and disease outcome in influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection: results of two international observational cohort studies

BACKGROUND Prospective studies establishing the temporal relationship between the degree of inflammation and human influenza disease progression are scarce. To assess predictors of disease progression among patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection, 25 inflammatory biomarkers measured at enrollment were analyzed in two international observational cohort studies. METHODS Among patients with RT-PCR-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection, odds ratios (ORs) estimated by logistic regression were used to summarize the associations of biomarkers measured at enrollment with worsened disease outcome or death after 14 days of follow-up for those seeking outpatient care (FLU 002) or after 60 days for those hospitalized with influenza complications (FLU 003). Biomarkers that were significantly associated with progression in both studies (p<0.05) or only in one (p<0.002 after Bonferroni correction) were identified. RESULTS In FLU 002 28/528 (5.3%) outpatients had influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection that progressed to a study endpoint of complications, hospitalization or death, whereas in FLU 003 28/170 (16.5%) inpatients enrolled from the general ward and 21/39 (53.8%) inpatients enrolled directly from the ICU experienced disease progression. Higher levels of 12 of the 25 markers were significantly associated with subsequent disease progression. Of these, 7 markers (IL-6, CD163, IL-10, LBP, IL-2, MCP-1, and IP-10), all with ORs for the 3(rd) versus 1(st) tertile of 2.5 or greater, were significant (p<0.05) in both outpatients and inpatients. In contrast, five markers (sICAM-1, IL-8, TNF-α, D-dimer, and sVCAM-1), all with ORs for the 3(rd) versus 1(st) tertile greater than 3.2, were significantly (p≤.002) associated with disease progression among hospitalized patients only. CONCLUSIONS In patients presenting with varying severities of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection, a baseline elevation in several biomarkers associated with inflammation, coagulation, or immune function strongly predicted a higher risk of disease progression. It is conceivable that interventions designed to abrogate these baseline elevations might affect disease outcome

Peripheral innate immune and bacterial signals relate to clinical heterogeneity in Parkinson's disease.

The innate immune system is implicated in Parkinson's disease (PD), but peripheral in-vivo clinical evidence of the components and driving mechanisms involved and their relationship with clinical heterogeneity and progression to dementia remain poorly explored. We examined changes in peripheral innate immune-related markers in PD cases (n = 41) stratified according to risk of developing early dementia. 'Higher Risk'(HR) (n = 23) and 'Lower Risk' (LR) (n = 18) groups were defined according to neuropsychological predictors and MAPT H1/H2 genotype, and compared to age, gender and genotype-matched controls. Monocyte subsets and expression of key surface markers were measured using flow cytometry. Serum markers including alpha-synuclein, inflammasome-related caspase-1 and bacterial translocation-related endotoxin were measured using quantitative immuno-based assays. Specific markers were further investigated using monocyte assays and validated in plasma samples from a larger incident PD cohort (n = 95). We found that classical monocyte frequency was elevated in PD cases compared to controls, driven predominantly by the HR group, in whom Toll-Like Receptor (TLR)4+ monocytes and monocyte Triggering Receptor Expressed on Myeloid cells-2 (TREM2) expression were also increased. Monocyte Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA)-DR expression correlated with clinical variables, with lower levels associated with worse cognitive/motor performance. Notably, monocyte changes were accompanied by elevated serum bacterial endotoxin, again predominantly in the HR group. Serum alpha-synuclein and inflammasome-related caspase-1 were decreased in PD cases compared to controls regardless of group, with decreased monocyte alpha-synuclein secretion in HR cases. Further, alpha-synuclein and caspase-1 correlated positively in serum and monocyte lysates, and in plasma from the larger cohort, though no associations were seen with baseline or 36-month longitudinal clinical data. Principal Components Analysis of all monocyte and significant serum markers indicated 3 major components. Component 1 (alpha-synuclein, caspase-1, TLR2+ monocytes) differentiated PD cases and controls in both groups, while Component 2 (endotoxin, monocyte TREM2, alpha-synuclein) did so predominantly in the HR group. Component 3 (classical monocytes, alpha-synuclein) also differentiated cases and controls overall in both groups. These findings demonstrate that systemic innate immune changes are present in PD and are greatest in those at higher risk of rapid progression to dementia. Markers associated with PD per-se (alpha-synuclein, caspase-1), differ from those related to cognitive progression and clinical heterogeneity (endotoxin, TREM2, TLR4, classical monocytes, HLA-DR), with mechanistic and therapeutic implications. Alpha-synuclein and caspase-1 are associated, suggesting inflammasome involvement common to all PD, while bacterial translocation associated changes may contribute towards progression to Parkinson's dementia. Additionally, HLA-DR-associated variations in antigen presentation/clearance may modulate existing clinical disease

Diet And Perceptions Change With Supermarket Introduction In A Food Desert, But Not Because Of Supermarket Use.

Placing full-service supermarkets in food deserts--areas with limited access to healthy food--has been promoted as a way to reduce inequalities in access to healthy food, improve diet, and reduce the risk of obesity. However, previous studies provide scant evidence of such impacts. We surveyed households in two Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, neighborhoods in 2011 and 2014, one of which received a new supermarket in 2013. Comparing trends in the two neighborhoods, we obtained evidence of multiple positive impacts from new supermarket placement. In the new supermarket neighborhood we found net positive changes in overall dietary quality; average daily intakes of kilocalories and added sugars; and percentage of kilocalories from solid fats, added sugars, and alcohol. However, the only positive outcome in the recipient neighborhood specifically associated with regular use of the new supermarket was improved perceived access to healthy food. We did not observe differential improvement between the neighborhoods in fruit and vegetable intake, whole grain consumption, or body mass index. Incentivizing supermarkets to locate in food deserts is appropriate. However, efforts should proceed with caution, until the mechanisms by which the stores affect diet and their ability to influence weight status are better understood

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Children as Agents of Change: Parent Perceptions of Child-Driven Environmental Health Communication in the Apsáalooke (Crow Indian) Community

While previous research suggests children have successfully acted as health change agents, no studies have examined the role of children in promoting environmental health knowledge and awareness. This study describes parent perceptions of the impact of a five-day water-focused environmental health summer camp on elementary school children in an American Indian community. We interviewed parents about their perception of changes in their child\u27s environmental health knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors. Parents in this study confirmed that their child had shared information related to the camp activities. In addition, parents perceived that their children had increased knowledge and positive changes in attitudes and behaviors related to environmental health. We recommend programs promoting children as change agents develop and use materials for parents that facilitate bidirectional communication with youth so to not place the onus wholly on the child. Our study highlights parental perceptions of the ways the voices and actions of children have the potential to be valuable assets in addressing environmental-related health disparities

Prevention profiles: Understanding youth who do not use substances

This study replicates innovative profiles of prevention among students not using substances but who may be at different risks for acquisition. Using the Transtheoretical Model constructs of Decisional Balance and Temptations, cluster analyses were performed on four independent samples of students (n = 1240) in the USA, England and Israel. For each sample, the same four distinct profiles emerged. ANOVAs indicated that the processes of prevention varied significantly across these profiles. The prevention profiles were extended to youth in Elementary, Middle, and High Schools and from a focus on single substances to multiple substances, including alcohol, tobacco, and illicit drugs. Implications for developing prevention programs are also discussed. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved