A new method for identifying site-specific evolutionary rates and its applications.

In this thesis, I discuss each stage in the development of a new method for identifying site specific evolutionary rates, from conception of the idea, through the implementation to its application to data. TIGER, or tree independent generation of evolutionary rates, is based largely around the works of LeQuesne (1989), Wilkinson (1998) and Pisani (2004) and the premise that sites in a multi-state character matrix could be scored based on the level of agreement it displays with the other sites. In these earlier studies, however, agreement was measured in binary manner: sites were either compatible with each other or they are not. TIGER allows various degrees of agreement to occur between two sites, allowing it to pick up more subtle signals in the data. After implementing the method into a software program, it could be applied to data. Using a combination of simulated and empirical datasets, TIGER was shown to produce desirable results. In particular, removal of sites identified by TIGER was shown to improve phylogenetic reconstruction of deeply diverging lineages and of taxa displaying compositional attraction. Additionally, TIGER was applied to a gene content matrix in order to identify HGT signals and integrated into the analysis of a current phylogenetic problem, the origin of the mitochondria. Although it is widely accepted that eukaryotes have a chimeric genome, the specific “parent” of the mitochondria is, as of yet, unclear. Previous studies have failed to reach agreement regarding this issue for a number of reasons. Exploration of the signals using TIGER and heterogeneous modelling reveal that multiple signals and compositional heterogeneity are among the biggest problems with datasets containing both mitochondrial and a-proteobacterial sequences

Systematic detection of co-infection and intra-host recombination in more than 2 million global SARS-CoV-2 samples

Systematic monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 co-infections between different lineages and assessing the risk of intra-host recombinant emergence are crucial for forecasting viral evolution. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of more than 2 million SARS-CoV-2 raw read datasets submitted to the European COVID-19 Data Portal to identify co-infections and intra-host recombination. Co-infection was observed in 0.35% of the investigated cases. Two independent procedures were implemented to detect intra-host recombination. We show that sensitivity is predominantly determined by the density of lineage-defining mutations along the genome, thus we used an expanded list of mutually exclusive defining mutations of specific variant combinations to increase statistical power. We call attention to multiple challenges rendering recombinant detection difficult and provide guidelines for the reduction of false positives arising from chimeric sequences produced during PCR amplification. Additionally, we identify three recombination hotspots of Delta – Omicron BA.1 intra-host recombinants.</p

Systematic detection of co-infection and intra-host recombination in more than 2 million global SARS-CoV-2 samples

Systematic monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 co-infections between different lineages and assessing the risk of intra-host recombinant emergence are crucial for forecasting viral evolution. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of more than 2 million SARS-CoV-2 raw read datasets submitted to the European COVID-19 Data Portal to identify co-infections and intra-host recombination. Co-infection was observed in 0.35% of the investigated cases. Two independent procedures were implemented to detect intra-host recombination. We show that sensitivity is predominantly determined by the density of lineage-defining mutations along the genome, thus we used an expanded list of mutually exclusive defining mutations of specific variant combinations to increase statistical power. We call attention to multiple challenges rendering recombinant detection difficult and provide guidelines for the reduction of false positives arising from chimeric sequences produced during PCR amplification. Additionally, we identify three recombination hotspots of Delta – Omicron BA.1 intra-host recombinants.</p

Long-term participant retention and engagement patterns in an app and wearable-based multinational remote digital depression study

Recent growth in digital technologies has enabled the recruitment and monitoring of large and diverse populations in remote health studies. However, the generalizability of inference drawn from remotely collected health data could be severely impacted by uneven participant engagement and attrition over the course of the study. We report findings on long-term participant retention and engagement patterns in a large multinational observational digital study for depression containing active (surveys) and passive sensor data collected via Android smartphones, and Fitbit devices from 614 participants for up to 2 years. Majority of participants (67.6%) continued to remain engaged in the study after 43 weeks. Unsupervised clustering of participants' study apps and Fitbit usage data showed 3 distinct engagement subgroups for each data stream. We found: (i) the least engaged group had the highest depression severity (4 PHQ8 points higher) across all data streams; (ii) the least engaged group (completed 4 bi-weekly surveys) took significantly longer to respond to survey notifications (3.8 h more) and were 5 years younger compared to the most engaged group (completed 20 bi-weekly surveys); and (iii) a considerable proportion (44.6%) of the participants who stopped completing surveys after 8 weeks continued to share passive Fitbit data for significantly longer (average 42 weeks). Additionally, multivariate survival models showed participants' age, ownership and brand of smartphones, and recruitment sites to be associated with retention in the study. Together these findings could inform the design of future digital health studies to enable equitable and balanced data collection from diverse populations

The COVID-19 Data Portal: accelerating SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 research through rapid open access data sharing.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic will be remembered as one of the defining events of the 21st century. The rapid global outbreak has had significant impacts on human society and is already responsible for millions of deaths. Understanding and tackling the impact of the virus has required a worldwide mobilisation and coordination of scientific research. The COVID-19 Data Portal (https://www.covid19dataportal.org/) was first released as part of the European COVID-19 Data Platform, on April 20th 2020 to facilitate rapid and open data sharing and analysis, to accelerate global SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 research. The COVID-19 Data Portal has fortnightly feature releases to continue to add new data types, search options, visualisations and improvements based on user feedback and research. The open datasets and intuitive suite of search, identification and download services, represent a truly FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) resource that enables researchers to easily identify and quickly obtain the key datasets needed for their COVID-19 research

Repeat associated mechanisms of genome evolution and function revealed by the Mus caroli and Mus pahari genomes

Understanding the mechanisms driving lineage-specific evolution in both primates and rodents has been hindered by the lack of sister clades with a similar phylogenetic structure having high-quality genome assemblies. Here, we have created chromosome-level assemblies of the Mus caroli and Mus pahari genomes. Together with the Mus musculus and Rattus norvegicus genomes, this set of rodent genomes is similar in divergence times to the Hominidae (human-chimpanzee-gorilla-orangutan). By comparing the evolutionary dynamics between the Muridae and Hominidae, we identified punctate events of chromosome reshuffling that shaped the ancestral karyotype of Mus musculus and Mus caroli between 3 and 6 million yr ago, but that are absent in the Hominidae. Hominidae show between four- and sevenfold lower rates of nucleotide change and feature turnover in both neutral and functional sequences, suggesting an underlying coherence to the Muridae acceleration. Our system of matched, high-quality genome assemblies revealed how specific classes of repeats can play lineage-specific roles in related species. Recent LINE activity has remodeled protein-coding loci to a greater extent across the Muridae than the Hominidae, with functional consequences at the species level such as reproductive isolation. Furthermore, we charted a Muridae-specific retrotransposon expansion at unprecedented resolution, revealing how a single nucleotide mutation transformed a specific SINE element into an active CTCF binding site carrier specifically in Mus caroli, which resulted in thousands of novel, species-specific CTCF binding sites. Our results show that the comparison of matched phylogenetic sets of genomes will be an increasingly powerful strategy for understanding mammalian biology

Repeat associated mechanisms of genome evolution and function revealed by the Mus caroli and Mus pahari genomes.

Understanding the mechanisms driving lineage-specific evolution in both primates and rodents has been hindered by the lack of sister clades with a similar phylogenetic structure having high-quality genome assemblies. Here, we have created chromosome-level assemblies of the Mus caroli and Mus pahari genomes. Together with the Mus musculus and Rattus norvegicus genomes, this set of rodent genomes is similar in divergence times to the Hominidae (human-chimpanzee-gorilla-orangutan). By comparing the evolutionary dynamics between the Muridae and Hominidae, we identified punctate events of chromosome reshuffling that shaped the ancestral karyotype of Mus musculus and Mus caroli between 3 and 6 million yr ago, but that are absent in the Hominidae. Hominidae show between four- and sevenfold lower rates of nucleotide change and feature turnover in both neutral and functional sequences, suggesting an underlying coherence to the Muridae acceleration. Our system of matched, high-quality genome assemblies revealed how specific classes of repeats can play lineage-specific roles in related species. Recent LINE activity has remodeled protein-coding loci to a greater extent across the Muridae than the Hominidae, with functional consequences at the species level such as reproductive isolation. Furthermore, we charted a Muridae-specific retrotransposon expansion at unprecedented resolution, revealing how a single nucleotide mutation transformed a specific SINE element into an active CTCF binding site carrier specifically in Mus caroli, which resulted in thousands of novel, species-specific CTCF binding sites. Our results show that the comparison of matched phylogenetic sets of genomes will be an increasingly powerful strategy for understanding mammalian biology

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

A new method for identifying site-specific evolutionary rates and its applications.

In this thesis, I discuss each stage in the development of a new method for identifying site specific evolutionary rates, from conception of the idea, through the implementation to its application to data. TIGER, or tree independent generation of evolutionary rates, is based largely around the works of LeQuesne (1989), Wilkinson (1998) and Pisani (2004) and the premise that sites in a multi-state character matrix could be scored based on the level of agreement it displays with the other sites. In these earlier studies, however, agreement was measured in binary manner: sites were either compatible with each other or they are not. TIGER allows various degrees of agreement to occur between two sites, allowing it to pick up more subtle signals in the data. After implementing the method into a software program, it could be applied to data. Using a combination of simulated and empirical datasets, TIGER was shown to produce desirable results. In particular, removal of sites identified by TIGER was shown to improve phylogenetic reconstruction of deeply diverging lineages and of taxa displaying compositional attraction. Additionally, TIGER was applied to a gene content matrix in order to identify HGT signals and integrated into the analysis of a current phylogenetic problem, the origin of the mitochondria. Although it is widely accepted that eukaryotes have a chimeric genome, the specific “parent” of the mitochondria is, as of yet, unclear. Previous studies have failed to reach agreement regarding this issue for a number of reasons. Exploration of the signals using TIGER and heterogeneous modelling reveal that multiple signals and compositional heterogeneity are among the biggest problems with datasets containing both mitochondrial and a-proteobacterial sequences